Review of Monte Carlo

Still have to update some results from last weeks tournament in Monte Carlo.

I used 20% hedging strategy on the following matches.

Andreev - Davydenko Profit: 4,00€ (20% ROI)

Nadal - Davydenko Loss: 20,00€ (-100% ROI)

What a stupid decision to try to hedge Rafael Nadal... will never do so again.

But I was able to get some money back I lost on the hedge with some trades on the final

Rafael  Nadal - Roger Federer

Before I said that one rule is: "Never bet against Roger Federer". OK, there is one rule above! "

"Never bet against Rafael Nadal on clay!".

So here are the bets for the match:

Back Nadal 20€ @ 1.48

Back Nadal 10€ @ 1.95

Lay Nadal 20€ @ 1.14

Lay Nadal 10€ @ 1.3

Lay Nadal 10€ @ 1.05

Profit: 12,80€ (+42,67% ROI)

 

So the overall p/l for this tournament was 24,80€. Including two really big mistakes that caused a loss of 40€. So I am quite confident to level up this performance on future tournaments.

 

Stay lucky,

Muxor

Trading Spain GP

Hello,

today I traded Formula 1 Spain GP.

First Lap Leader

Alonso was 2nd place and had less fuel than Raikkonen. I layed Raikkonen 20€@1,28 in the hope for Alonso to take the lead. Raikkonen was not under pressure the hold lead in 1st lap because he could be sure to over take Alonso in pit lane. Sadly Alonso could not take the lead and I lost my stake.

total loss this market: -5,60€

Podium Finish

During 2nd safety car period Hamilton was available to finish on podium at 1,59. I backed him 10€@1,59 knowing he should had more fuel than Kubica. Later I traded out to avoid a loss.

total profit this market: +3,36€

Fastest Lap

After a good start Raikkonen was pushing one fastest lap after another. I backed him 9€@2 after I saw him pushing. Layed off later to avoid a loss.

total profit this market: +5,70€

I like trading fastest lap, because you can follow this market very closely by using live timing from http://www.formula1.com.

Summary:

total profit today: +3,46€

All the best, Loocie

Trading 2008 Monte Carlo Masters final

Hi,

today I traded the final of 2008 Monte Carlo Masters:

Federer v Nadal

Nadal was leading 6-5 in 1st set and Federer was serving. I backed Nadal 10€@1,47 as a good free bet. Federer lost his service game and so the first set 5-7 and odds on Nadal shortened to 1,2. I layed Nadal 20€@1,2 because I thought Federer could give him another good fight in 2nd set. Federer did and was leading 4-0 in 2nd set. Odds on Nadal lengthened to 1,7. This was the exit point to make profit each way, because odds would not move significantly if Federer wins 2nd set. But I did not made profit each why. Was a great mistake!

Nadal fought back and Federer stopped playing tennis. Later I made profit each way, because I recognized that I have missed the correct point to exit.

This is a general issue I have to learn.

total profit this match: +1,46€ (14,6%ROI)

All the best, Loocie

Trading Qualifying Spain GP

Hello,

this afternoon I traded qualifying of Formula 1 Spain GP. I backed Lewis Hamilton pre qualifying 4€@11. He was close to Ferrari and I was confident he had a chance to get pole. The odds of 11 were too high.

In Q3 he had the chance to take the lead, but he did not.

In Q2 Massa was waiting until the end to perform this period but was available at 4, so I backed him 4€@4 and after he finished Q2 in 1st position I could lay off @2,86. Was a good trade.

In the last moments of Q3 were about 4 cars on track and fighting for pole position. I think with some knowledge of odds movement, live pictures and commentary it is very often possible to get really good odds inplay, especially in hectic situations. But today it was not possible. The suspend button boy of Betfair was to nervous and suspended the market during the final moments of Q3.

May bets so far:

Back Hamilton 4€@11
Back Massa 4€@4
Lay Massa 5,96€@2,86

total loss this session: -2,04€

All the best, Loocie

Monaco quarter finals

Hello,

today I traded the following matches:

Andreev v Davydenko

Davydenko won first set 6-3 but stats showed a very tight match. See picture below:

I layed Davydenko 30€@1,17. During second set I thought I watched WTA tennis match with 7 breaks. Match developed as predicted and I could green up. My bets so far:

Lay Davydenko 30€@1,17

Back Davydenko 10€@1,51

Back Davydenko 12,74€@1,57

total profit this match: +6,90€

Federer v Nalbandian

Backed Federer 10€@1,91 when score was 4-4. Nalbandian had only around 16% return points won so far. In the 11th game Federer lost his service game and Nalbandian won 1st set 7-5. Federer fought back and won second set 6-2. I traded out to avoid a loss.

total profit this match: +0,68€

Ferrer v Nadal

Layed Nadal pre match 25€@1,18 and took a stop loss @1,05. Well, Nadal is great on clay, but I was convinced Ferrer had a chance to win one set. Ferrer was leading 3-0 in second set with a double break but could not hold this and lost the match 1-6, 5-7.

total loss this match: -3,50€

It is good to see stop loss is working, but I think I you should not oppose Nadal on clay.

Tomorrow we will have Fed Cup semi finals and also semi finals in Monaco. I also hope I can enter trading formula 1.

All the best, Loocie

Clayseason

So now I finally found time to write down my trades on the masters series event in Monte Carlo.

Started in the tournament with a loss trade, simillar to Loocies trade on the match, but was glad that finally I managed to cut losses and not losing always 100% of my stake.

Lopez - Murray

Loss: 10,88€ (-55% ROI)

Andreev - Tursunov

Layed Andreev at 1.25, because I expected him to choke. He didn't and his whole performance at this tournament is really very good and impressive.

Loss: 5,00€ (-100% ROI)

Things started to get better with the match

Ramirez Hidalgo - Simon

Knowing from the week before that Simon was injured, I took very good odds on Ramirez Hidalgo, who had no problems at all to win this match. I am very glad about this trade, because it showed that all information you collect about the players can be useful.

Profit: 9,81€ (+46,6% ROI)

 

In the following match I started to use a new strategy. Something I mentioned during very many matches. Sometimes during the first games of the second set the market shows a very high overreaction and odds drop very low. This happens if the fav of the match won the first set very clear and is starting to take a lead in second set. But results like 6-0 6-0 or 6-1 6-1 are very seldom. So the odds usually take some upswings. If you are not greedy you can make very good profit from these swings, because a lay at 1.02 and back at 1.04 (or lay at 1.01 and back at 1.02) means 100% profit. I watched markets very long and often till I decided to try this strategy. Timing is everything for this trading and you need to watch the money queues on the higher odds carefully. Don't use this strategy if the market doesn't believe in the losing player anymore at all. For example if the odds drop to 1.02 and there are already waiting several thousand bugs to be matched on 1.03 and on 1.04 you shouldn't take this option.

 

Bolelli - Davydenko

Bets for the match:

Lay Davydenko 1615,55€ @ 1.01

Back Davydenko 1615,00€ @ 1.02

Lay Davydenko 15,14€ @ 1.03

Profit: 15,69€ (+97,15% ROI)

Time between bets matched: 25 seconds

 

I also applied this strategy on the following matches:

O. Rochus - Nalbandian

Profit: 14,32€ (+95,47% ROI)

Ferrer - Tipsarevic

Profit: 17,70€ (+88,5% ROI)

Robredo - Nalbandian

Loss: 20,00€ (-100% ROI)

The last one was a really stupid trade. I was greedy and the market didn't show signs to swing up again. But this strategy still is in big profit.

 

If you want to know how to win a set with just 2 return points till the score is 6-6, ask Janko Tipsarevic. Never saw something like this before.

Tipsarevic - Lapentti

Loss: 10,00€ (-50% ROI)

 

From now on, no more losses.

Some trades just watching inplay market and trading regarding to the stats:

Youzhny - Andreev

Profit: 1,20€ (+8,96% ROI)

Ferrero - Nieminen

Profit: 0,50€ (+5% ROI)

Andreev - Almagro

I watched this match in the betfair live stream. Really very good performance and great rallies of both players. Andreev needed 9 match points to finally claim this victory for him. all 9 match points where during one game. Almagro also had three times the advantage, so this last game of the match took 30 points!

Profit: 4,06€ (+40,6% ROI)

 

We all know that the nickname of "The King" went over to Rafael Nadal during the clay season and he showed in his two matches that he deserves it. Really impressive and genius play of Rafa.

 

So let us just talk about... the best tennis player of all times.

Going with Federer all the way:

Federer - Ramirez Hidalgo

Federer won the first set, lost the second set and was down 5-1 in the third set. Ramirez Hidalgo didn't have any matchpoint. Do I need to say more?

Profit: 5,50€ (+27,5% ROI)

Federer - Monfils

Market gave a 1.2 prematch on Fedex, which I took with great pleasure. Added some more at odds of 1.44 (highest odd on Federer during the match: 1.52).

Profit: 5,10€ (+25,5% ROI)

 

One another rule for tennis trading:

Don't bet against Roger Federer!

 

So far this tournament showed a profit of 28,00€. Till the last trade it was 48,00€, but this stupid loss with laying Nalbandian although the market didn't show signs for swinging up. But still feeling very comfortable. Will add this to general strategies for my trading, which are: During first stages: normal inplay trading, regarding the stats, history and other information about players - lay low, back little higher - and in later stages the hedging strategies on selected ATP matches and all WTA matches.

So far the news from my trading on Monte Carlo Masters Series.

 

Tschüss bis dann,

Muxor

Stupid is as stupid does

Hello,

I had busy days at work so I could not trade very much. Not having much time for trading could be a reason for doing stupid things.

2008-04-22

Safin v Malisse

Layed Safin 100€@1,01 with the aim to back 50€@1,02 in the hope match could turn. Completely stupid! It is only small money, but it is wasted. There was no reason for doing this.

total loss this match: -1,00€

Andreev v Tursunov

Layed Andreev 20€@1,24 after winning 1st set 7-5. Andreev is not very stable during a match, so I think it was a good Lay. Sadly Tursunov could not fight back and I lost my hole stake.

total loss this match: -4,80€

Ramirez Hidalgo v Simon

I can not remember completely when I entered the market. Simon was injured, but there were good odds available to back Ramirez Hidalgo.

I remember Muxor took odds around 1,6x to back Ramirez Hidalgo. I was chasing ticks stupidly: Back 1,69 was available and I can not explain why I tried to get 1,72 or 1,73 but I did not take 1,69. It is completely stupid to chase 2 or 3 ticks. 1,69 was very good. I took 1,33 so I wasted more than 30 ticks to get 2 or 3 ticks!

My bets:

Back Ramirez Hidalgo 10€@1,33

Lay Ramirez Hidalgo 10€@1,01

total profit this match: +3,04€

Bolelli v Davydenko

They played each other a few days ago and Bolelli could win 1st set against Davydenko.

My bets:

Lay Davydenko 50€@1,1 after winning 1st set 6-2

Back Davydenko 20€@1,05 to reduce eventually loss.

In 2nd set Davydenko was leading 4-1.

Back Davydenko 20€@1,2 after Bolelli fought back to 4-4, so I had a free bet with 10€ profit on Bolelli and 0€ on Davydenko, but Davy won 2nd set 7-6 and I could not make profit.

total profit this match: 0,00€

2008-04-23

Lapentti v Tipsarevic

How statistics can lie! Lapentti  won 1st set 7-5. Tipsarevic had only 34% 1st serve and won only 25% return points in 1st set.

I backed Lapentti 10€@1,49 when score was 4-4 in 2nd set. Until this time Tipsarevic only won two return points in second set. I was quit confident about Lapentti winning an eventually tie break or breaking Tipsarevic. Tippy could reach a tie break an won 2nd set 7-6. Odds moved against me, but I was able to reduce liability but I did not. That was a mistake. I lost my whole stake.

total loss this match: -10€

Vliegen v Gasquet

I got an info about an injury of Gasquet and decided to apply tennis hedging strategy. I know using this strategy in early stages in tournaments is very risky. I learned this again when Gasquet won this match 6-1, 6-2.

total loss this match: -20€

stats tennis hedging strategy: -3,67€

today 2008-04-24

Djokovic v A Murray

Again something stupid. Laying Djokovic 100€1,01 to lose 1€.

total loss this match: -1,00€

Querrey v Gasquet

I could return to my normal way of trading tennis matches without being stupid.

Gasquet won 1st set 6-2 and odds on him moved to 1,1. In the first game of the 2nd set I could see some strange swings on odds so I layed Gasquet 100€@1,05 when Querrey was serving at 1-1 (0-15). This was a very tight game, Gasquet had 7 break points but could not convert any of them. After winning this game I could green up with a back Gasquet 50€@1,1 but I did not get all money matched, only 70,49€ and so I cancelled rest of the money, but was green.

Querrey improved his serve and took a 5-4 lead with Gasquet serving. Odds on Gasquet were around 1,08. This was a great free lay. Gasquet could only reach a 5-5 and odds would return to 1,05 or 1,06, so only 2 or 3 ticks risk with the possibility to gain 20 or 30 ticks. But it is important to back back the player you layed, when he wins his service game.

Gasquet did not and I could green up at 1,3 (so 22 ticks won). I green up each way to make a profit of 15,86€ with only 5€ risk. More than 300% ROI!

total profit this match: +15,86€

By the way: Gasquet lost this match 6-2, 4-6, 3-6.

Here are some conclusions to improve my trading and avoid stupid "trades":

• Do not chase ticks!
  
• Do not enter markets without a plan!
  
• Take stop loss according to situation. Do not lose your whole stake!
  
• Apply tennis hedging strategy only in final stages (QF, SF, F) of tournaments!

I will keep this in mind and hope to continue good trading from previous weeks.

All the best, Loocie

Trading tennis masters Monte Carlo

Hello,

yesterday I traded two matches:

Ferrero v Llodra

I backed Ferrero 10€@2.0 when losing 1st set 6-7.

Stats first set:

You see, score is very clear in 2nd and 3rd set and I could green up very easily.

total profit this match: +5,17€ (+51,7%ROI)

Lopez v A Murray

I layed Murray 30€@1,35 during 1st set when Lopez was leading 3-2 and Murray serving. Sadly Murray took 1st set. I had some stop loss trades to minimize eventually loss.

total loss this match: -6,96€ (-66,29%ROI)

Muxor had the same trade laying Murray.

total loss today: -1,79€

More matches today, maybe I can enter some markets in promising situations.

All the best, Loocie

Finals Day

Good morning,

I chose to skip both ATP finals. As Almagro brought already enough upsets last days and don't want to lay odds around 2.

Federer - Davydenko I skipped just because I don't want to bet against the king, although he is still searching for his form with a new coach. But it is still Roger Federer, the world no. 1.

In both WTA matches I placed the lay orders yesterday and got already matched one back bet completely on Serena Williams and the other back bet on Kirilenko partially.

Serena Williams - Vera Zvonareva

Bets for the match:

Lay Williams 70€ @ 1.24 (initial bet was with higher stake, 70€ matched)

Back Williams 66€ @ 1.32

Minimum profit: 4,00€

With these two bets I managed to get the desired profit of 20% from a risk of 20€ even with risking less, as not everything from my initial lay bet was matched. But odds movement was big enough to get this profit. Both bets where matched more then 16 hours before the players will enter the court.

Maria Kirilenko - Iveta Benesova

Layed Kirilenko early yesterday. Odds increased over the night and my back bet was already partially matched. Odds dropped some tics again, but I am very confident that the odds will increase before the match and the hedge will be completed before he first ball is played.

Bets for the match:

Lay Kirilenko 38,47€ @ 1.52

Back Kirilenko 34,47€ @ 1.7 (4€ already matched)

 

Another match what will be covered today is the fourth game of German icehockey league finals. Last match in the own stadium for the Cologne Sharks for this season. Loocie and Muxor will be in the first row to support the sharks to get a chance for the championship on Tuesday in Berlin.

Go Sharks. Olé Olé!

Update 1:

Both hedges where catched completely prematch and the desired profit of 4,00€ was made in two matches. Makes the hedging for this weeks tournaments a total of 14 to 2 which makes 80% profit with this strategy.

 

Adios,

Muxor

It's Hedge Time

As I told before, no inplay trading for me in higher stages, so I tried to hedge 20% ROI in several matches.

 

The hedging strategy worked fine in the following matches:

Benesova - Pin

Ferrer - Verdasco

Szavay - Cornet

Dementieva - Schnyder

Benesova - Ani

Ferrer - Robredo

Serra - Davydenko

Cornet - S. Williams

Zvonareva - Dementieva

Zakopalova - Kirilenko (both hedgebets where matched prematch)

In all these matches I layed the fav prematch and left a back order to get 20% ROI each way.

In two matches I didn't want to lay the fav prematch and did the hedge after the first games. It also worked fine, but would also have worked in both cases with premtach lays.

S. Williams - Sharapova

Korolev - Haase

I also skipped several matches. Following the markets inplay showed: all premtach hedges in these matches would have cought. I skipped too many matches in quarter finals. Don't remember all of them, but here are some examples:

Jankovic - Zvonareva

Gremelmayer - Federer

Zakopalova - Knapp

Ani - Savchuk

 

But I also found a killer of the hedging strategy. This killer in the last two days was Nicolas Almagro. In two matches of him the prematch hedge didn't work for me and both matches resulted in a loss without taking a stop loss. Almagro was clear odds fav in the matches:

Korolev - Almagro

Monaco - Almagro

In both cases not many steps of odds where necessary for the hedge to catch, but in both cases it wasn't reached. But also in both cases the odds dropped some tics when the match went inplay without anything had happened. If I took these lower odds to lay in both cases the hedge would have cought in the first game of the match.

But how was the hedging strategy killed in these matches? Well, in both cases Almagro managed to completely dominate his opponent. In all 4 sets he was leading with break ahead from the first game of the set. So no chance for higher odds, as the odds movement knew only one direction: downwards. Such matches are working completely against this strategy, but it happens.

 

The result of these two hedging days where 14 placed hedges with 12 wins and 2 losses. Hopefully these two losses don't repeat itself too often, as the percentage of hedge catches should be a little bit higher.

But nonetheless the days resulted in profit: 2 times loss of 100% makes it 200% loss and 12 times 20% profit makes 240% profit, so an overall profit of 40% for these two days.

These two days showed that (starting from quarter final) this hedging strategy would have worked in all WTA matches in two tournaments, but ATP showed two losses as here one break can be very important and the odds don't come up again.

Will consider three finals (Estoril WTA and ATP, Charleston WTA) for hedging. Need to think if I will try it again with Almagro in the final in Valencia. Next week the next masters series event in Monaco will take place, so none of the players will risk an injury at such small tournaments, so I don't think we will see the whole potential tomorrow in all matches.

 

G'Day,

Muxor

Do not chase live pictures

Hello,

today I traded the following matches:

Zakopalova v Kirilenko

How to describe my trading of this match? I changed my style of trading completely. I watched this match via Betfair live video and I chased the pictures. I tried to anticipate the next point and put orders in. The only good thing I did was using stop losses and so I could avoid a big loss.

Kirilenko won second set and I traded out to produce a small profit.

This is an example how not to trade on tennis. I am glad to avoid a loss, but in most time you will lose big money.

Do not chase the pictures!

Players still on court. Will update later.

Update 1:

Zakopalova v Kirilenko 6-2, 3-6, 5-7

Update 2:

I applied on the following matches the tennis hedging strategy:

Serra v Davydenko: +4,11€

Cornet v S Williams: +4,44€

Zvonareva v Dementieva: +3,80€ or +3,99€ (players still on court)

Update 3:

Zvonareva v Dementieva: 6-3, 6-7, 6-3 +3,80€

total profit tennis hedging strategy: +12,60€

All the best,

Loocie

Yesterday's trades

Hello,

yesterday I traded the following matches:

Garbin v Kirilenko

Kirilenko won first set 6-0. She plays very insecure, so I hoped Garbin hat a chance to win 2nd set, but she did not. Kirilenko won the match 6-0, 6-1. I layed Kirilenko 100€@1,05 and had a loss of -5,00€.

Benesova v Pin

I applied my hedging strategy.

Lay Benesova 37,03€@1,54

Lay Pin 24,17€€2,36

total profit this match: +3,96€

result: Benesova v Pin 3-6, 6-2, 6-3

Almagro v Monaco

I applied also this strategy, because I expected a very close match. Monaco did not play well and lost this match in straight sets.

result: Almagro v Monaco 6-3, 6-2

My bets:

Lay Almagro 32,79€@1,61

Back Almagro 13€@1,15

Back Almagro 36,38€@1,05

You see, I took a stop loss to avoid losing 20€.

total loss this match: -16,23€ (-81,15% ROI)

Ferrer v Verdasco

Again I tried the hedging strategy. I layed Ferrer 31,25€@1,64 pre match. A few minutes before start of the match the odds shorten to 1,55. I have to think about how to handle such situations, when the price moves pre match against me.

I watched the match via Betfair live video. Verdasco lost the first set 3-6 and I did not want to lose again 20€ so I decided to back Ferrer 10€@1,15. In 2nd set Ferrer stopped playing tennis so Verdasco could take this set 6-1. Later I could green up and produced a profit of 1,40€ each way. Without the stop loss 20% ROI was possible, but I had not much confidence caused by the loss in previous match.

total profit this match: +1,40€ (+7%ROI)

Gicquel v Davydenko

I watched this match via protennis live ticker. Davydenko won 1st set 6-4. Gicquel was leading 6-5 (30-30) and Davydenko was serving.

I think it was a kind of free lay. Davydenko only could reach a tie break and odds would not move significantly against me, but if he loses this game, he loses also the second set and I can green up.

So I layed Davydenko 10€@1,28 when score was 30-30. Incredible odds, I think. Davydenko lost his service game and I could green up. Stats 2nd set:

My bets:

Lay Davydenko 10€@1,28

Back Davydenko 10€@1,68

total profit this match: +3,80€ (+135,7%ROI)

Korolev v Haase

I applied tennis hedging strategy and could produce a profit of +4,08€.

S Williams v Sharapova

Must have been a great match, had no pictures but followed this match via protennis live ticker. As we know good serving is not a very big advantage in matches on clay courts but having a great return is more important. Williams and Sharapova are great return players so I expected very much breaks and I also expected this match would be a 3 setter.

Update: It was a great match! See highlights below:

My bets (all in 1st set):

Lay Sharapova 20€@1,55

Lay Williams 15,50€@2

total profit this match +4,27€ (+37,1%ROI)

Roundup yesterday:

total stats tennis hedging strategy: -0,19€

stats yesterday's trading: -3,74€

Yesterday produced a small loss. It is part of the game and today I try to find new trading points and matches where I can make some profit.

All the best,

Loocie

Another try

So today I will try to stick to my rules. That doesn't mean that I am waiting for a loss to show that I can take it without putting more money, but I hopefully will do so if one match develops wrong.

First match of today:

Mischa Zverev - Fernando Verdasco

Backed Verdasco after Zverev leading with an early break. Layed off risk after Verdasco winning first set. 

Bets for the match:

Back Verdasco 10€ @ 1.59

Lay Verdasco 10€ @ 1.1

Lay Verdasco 4,85€ @ 1.01

Profit: 4,85€ (48,5% ROI)

Result: Verdasco won 6-4, 6-2

Olga Savchuk - Sofia Arvidson

Though about backing Savchuk prematch, but wanted to see some stats during the match. Backed her then when leading 2-0 and I jumped on the Savchuk train right in time.

Bets for the match:

Back Savchuk 10€ @ 1.71

Lay Savchuk 10€ @ 1.15

Lay Savchuk 5,54€ @ 1.01

Profit: 5,54€ (+55,4% ROI)

Result: Savchuk won 6-2, 6-2

Update 1:

Tathiana Garbin - Sanda Mamic

Backed Garbin prematch with half of the stake and with plan to back more during first games to see some form. Backed her after losing first service game.

Bets for the match:

Back Garbin 10€ @ 1.6

Back Garbin 10€ @ 1.72

Lay Garbin 5€ @ 1.18

Lay Garbin 15€ @ 1.11

Lay Garbin 10,55€ @ 1.01

Profit: 10,54€ (+52,7% ROI)

Result: Garbin won 6-2, 6-2

Match was suspended , due to rain. This suspending was strange, as matches on all other courts continued.

 

Update 2:

Alizé Cornet - Sorana Cirstea

Loocie returned from the outer districts and we continued to trade together.

Backed Cornet with one break down in second set after winning the first set. Cirstea went up to 4-1 lead, but Cornet fought back and won the set 7-5.

Bets for the match:

Back Cornet 10€ @ 1.4

Lay Cornet 5€ @ 1.16

Profit: 3,20€ (+32% ROI)

Result: Cornet won 6-1, 7-5

 

That was all for me today. No loss, no mistake. Good day!

Tot ziens,

Muxor

Upswings and Downswings

Didn't have much time to write about the matches I traded yesterday

Here are first the profits of yesterday:

Monaco - Eschauer 6-7, 6-4, 6-4 Profit: 10,00€ (+60,6% ROI)

Starace - Mofils 7-5, 6-1 Profit: 8,76€ (+43,8% ROI)

Serra - Machado 7-5, 6-1 Profit: 8,12€ (+27% ROI)

Zakopalova - Dentoni 6-4, 6-1 Profit: 5,35€ (+26,75% ROI)

Azarenka - Sun 7-6, 6-0 Profit: 6,40€ (+61,33% ROI)

Perebiynis - Schruff 6-4, 6-3 Profit: 10,60€ (+53% ROI)

Using the Hedging Strategy:

Jankovic - Stevenson 7-5, 6-0 Profit: 6,33€ (31,65% ROI)

 

So these selections where quite good in my opinion, as all won in two straight sets, except for Monaco, but here I mainly entered in the match after he lost the first set.

 

But then there where also some stupid losses which made my confidence on the day turn around. As I didn't follow my own rules.

Talking to Loocie that entering a match in the third set is gambling in the morning, as you have no chances to get out of your trades if the match developes in the wrong direction, some hours later my brain switched off and I made the following loss:

Radwanska - Gallovits 6-7, 6-2, 7-5 Loss: 10,00€ (-100% ROI)

One another loss of the day was to lay Schnyder after winning the first set in tiebreak. Didn't expect her to win second set 6-0, so no chance to trade out.

Schnyder - Govortsova 7-6 6-0 Loss: 10,00€ (-100% ROI)

A small loss I considered in the match of Gilles Simon. He was injured and retired, mentioned it in time and was able to close the risk.

Cipolla - Simon 6-2, 5-3 ret. Loss: 1,20€ (-3,2% ROI)

And the first trade of the day was one of the worst trades I made during the last time. Because everything in the match developed in the wrong direction and instead of cutting my losses I even put more money and started the day with a big loss. I was worrying about that the whole day. Need to stop both, putting more money if the match develops in the wrong direction and to worry about such things a whole day.

Benesova - Pennetta 6-2, 6-2 Loss: 37€ (-246% ROI)

I count this match in stats as a 246% loss, because I was so focused on number one seed Pennetta and expected her to win that I forgot about all rules. But nonetheless: Flavia Pennetta: YOU ARE A MUPPET!

So I managed to end in a small loss, although having 7 correct selections. Need to improve my loss cutting for future trades. I think the knowledge of tennis Loocie and me developed during the last month gives us very good opportunities to trade tennis matched profitable. I only need to work on psychological things. Not being greedy and to accept and cut losses.

 

So here are some helpful rules for inplay tennis trading:

 

Don't gamble in third/fifth set!

 

If a match develops in the wrong direction, don't put more money on your selection, cut your losses if necessary. If the match turns around you will take profit from your first bet, so if you put more money you can only lose more and we don't play this game to lose!

 

All the best,

Muxor

Protect your stake

Hello,

first I want to give a summary of yesterday's trades. I can not remember all trades, especially my thoughts why I entered and exit the market, so I only post some stats per match.

Schwank v C. Rochus

Schwank won 1st set 6-2 and odds moved to 1,21. I was wondering about this low odds and layed him 27€@1,21. Was a great mistake, Rochus retired and I lost my stake.

total loss this match: -5,67€ (-100%ROI)

Almagro v Lopez Jaen

total profit this match: +2,66€ (+26,6%ROI)

Pennetta v Meusburger

total profit this match: +3,90€ (+39% ROI)

Machado v Karlovic

Machado broke Karlovic in 1st game and I backed Karlovic 10€@1,82. Karlovic was injured (could not find any information about an injury pre match). I was hoping for a retirement in 1st set, because Betfair only settles bets with at least one set completed. Karlovic lost 1st set 4-6 and I backed Machado 5€@1,32 to reduce my stake.

Later Karlovic retired.

total loss this match: -8,40€ (-84%ROI)

Vogele v Kirilenko

total profit this match: +2,99€ (26%ROI)

Federer v Rochus

total profit this match: +2,66€ (26,6%ROI)

total loss yesterday: -1,86€

 

Today I traded the following matches:

Rezai v Rodionova

I was wondering because Rezai was pre match favourite. So I layed her pre match 10€@1,63.

She did not played well and I could green up to make a profit of +5,82€.

Rodionova won 6-3, 6-4.

Sun v Azarenka

I layed Azarenka pre match 50€@1,21. Odds were too low on Azarenka.

Could green up in 1st set to make a profit of +3,96€.

total profit today: +9,78€

All the best, Loocie

Stay in profit

Hello,

clay court season already started and we have four tournaments in progress.

2008 Estoril Open

Osterloh v Arvidsson

Osterloh was leading 3-1 in first set and I backed Arvidsson 10€@1,7.

I think it was an over reaction, see picture below:

My bets:

Backed Arvidsson 10€@1,7

Layed Arvidsson 5€@1,16

Layed Arvidsson 5€@1,06

Layed Arvidsson 5,51€@1,07

profit this match: +5,51€ (55,10% ROI)

Will update this post later if trades follow.

All the best, Loocie

2008 Bausch & Lomb final

Hello,

I applied Tennis hedging strategy a la Loocie to gain 20% ROI.

Layed Sharapova 100€@1,2 and backed her 96€@1,25.

Stats so far:

total profit tennis hedging strategy: +6,60€.

Muxor had the similar trade today, so he won't make an own post today.

Stay lucky, Loocie

Trading Davis-Cup

Hello,

today I traded the Davis-Cup match

Nalbandian v Soderling

Nalbandian won first set 6-4. I layed Soderling when winning second set 6-1 2,32€@2,22 and 6€@2,24.
Nalbandian lost 3rd set 6-4. An early break in 4th set moved the odds of Soderling to 1,25 and I layed him again 20€@1,25.

I backed Nalbandian 20€@1,76 in 4th set and took out risk. Greened up with a Lay of Nalbandian 7,45€@1,1 to catch a profit of +7,57€.

Players are still on court.

Update: Nalbandian won 6-4, 1-6, 4-6, 6-4, 9-7.

All the best, Loocie

Semifinals Amelia Island

This years semi finals in Bausch & Lomb championships seems to be short ones, because Lindsay Davenport withdraw from her match against Maria Sharapova because of an illness. Sharapova so is the first player for Sunday's final. Her opponent will be found in the match

Alice Cornet - Domenika Cibulkova

As said after the tournament in Miami, I will stop to trade the matches in quarter final and later stages inplay. I will only apply to the 20% hedging strategy. Yesterday I didn't have the time to do so in quarter final matches, but also the matches was not good for hedging, as 3 matches had odds around 1.8 to 2.0 prematch. But for this semifinal match I applied to the strategy and layed Cibulkova prematch and put in a back order.

Bets for the match:

Lay Cibulkova 14,71€ @ 1.68

Back Cibulkova 12,71€ @ 1.95

Profit: 2,07€ (+20,7% ROI)

Both bets are matched, players still on court.

Update: Result: Cibulkova won 6-2, 2-6, 6-4

 

Au revoir,

Muxeur.

Details of tennis hedging strategy

Hello,

today I want to go into detail on tennis hedging strategy.

1. What is the tennis hedging strategy?

This strategy tries to make a profit on tennis matches inplay. You lay a player at certain odds and back him at higher odds to hedge the profit on each player.

You might say "That's nothing new for me!" and you are right. Inplay trading means lay low, back high. The question is how to identify matches or situations inplay where you have a high probability of odds movement in our favour.

I try to find matches where I lay the favourite pre match and back him inplay at higher odds.

2. What is the goal if this strategy?

Very simple: Making profit! You have to define how much profit you would like to achieve with this strategy. I try to make 20% ROI on every match with this strategy, that means I need a strike rate of 80% to break even and I need more to make profit.

3. How to select matches for this strategy?

You should not select every match. Generally matches in early stages should be avoided, because favourites smash their opponents very often.

In women's tennis matches you have a strike rate around 83% when having an aim of 20% ROI on every match if you select every scheduled match.

In men's tennis matches you have a strike rate around 75% when having an aim of 20% ROI on every match if you select every scheduled match.

4. How to improve this strategy?

I would suggest to apply a stop loss. Will give you an example:

max liability: 100€ -> target profit: 20€

favourite's odds pre match: 1,4

required backer's stake: 250€

pre match stats:

favourite -100€

underdog +250€

I need to back the favourite 230€@1,52 to gain around 20% ROI.

What if the favourite smashes the underdog?

I would use a stop loss at 1,05:

Back favourite 333,33€1,05, so inplay stats:

favourite -83,33€

underdog -83,33€

We "only" lose 83,33% of our liability. Let us combine the stop loss with the strike rate in women's and men's tennis matches:

women's matches:

100 matches with stop loss:

-we win on 83 matches around 20€ => +1660€

-we lose on 17 matches around 83,33€ => -1411€

total profit with stop loss: +249€

100 matches without stop loss:

-we win on 83 matches around 20€ => +1660€

-we lose on 17 matches 100 => -1700€

total loss without stop loss: -40€

men's matches:

100 matches with stop loss:

-we win on 75 matches around 20€ => +1500€

-we lose on 25 matches around 83,33€ => -2083,25€

total loss with stop loss: -583,25€

100 matches without stop loss:

-we win on 75 matches around 20€ => +1500€

-we lose on 25 matches 100 => -2500€

total loss without stop loss: -1000€

Using this strategy without any selection criteria we make a small win on women's matches:

total ROI: staked: 10000€ returned 10249€ -> ROI: 2,49%

In men's tennis matches we produce a big loss.

First conclusion: Use a pre defined stop loss!

Without knowledge of players it is not possible to make a decent profit with this strategy. So I think we need to identify matches where the odds are low but where the underdog does not lose 6-1, 6-1 or anything else.

There are many web sites where we can find free statistics and historical results of every player. Take advantage of this.

http://tennis.matchstat.com/

http://www.tennisinsight.com/

I think it is possible to achieve a strike rate above 90% when being very selective with the matches we apply this strategy on. Imagine a strike rate of 90% of all matches, women's and men's matches:

max liability: 100€ -> target on every match: 20€

90 wins -> +1800€

10 losses (apply stop loss) -> -833,30€

total profit in 100 matches: 966,70€

total ROI: staked: 10000€ returned 10966,70€ -> ROI: +9,67%

This strategy is not a quick rich scheme, but if you select your matches carefully it is possible to make steady profits.

5. Conclusion:

• Select you matches carefully
• Apply a stop loss
• Track your results to improve your selections

In less than 15 minutes it is possible to identify matches to trade on with this strategy so it might be a good hourly rate.

It would be great to get some feedback and thoughts from you about this strategy via comments or email.

All the best, Loocie

Trading tennis inplay

Hello,

today I traded the following match:

Vesnina v Cornet

I followed the match via protennis live ticker. Cornet was favourite and won first set comfortably 6-1.

Stats 1st set:

In second set she lost her service game and score was 3-2 for Vesnina.

Stats so far:

Remember: Cornet was favourite pre match with odds around 1,6. At this time odds where available around 1,4! Cornet won 1st set easily, was one break back and her opponent only won 3 service points. Cornet won around 73% return points, so she had a high probability of breaking her back. She did and won the match in straight sets 6-1, 7-5.

My bets:

Backed Cornet 10€@1,4

Layed Cornet 10€@1,01

profit this match: +3,90€

Will update this post later if trades follow.

All the best, Loocie

Delivery goes on

Hello!

Sometimes it is possible to apply the tennis hedging strategy completely pre match:

Razzano v Govortsova

Layed Razzano 55€@1,28

Backed Razzano 49,31€@1,40

Backed Razzano 0,98€@1,41

All actions from yesterday.

Stats so far:

total profit tennis hedging strategy: +2,80€

Stay lucky,

Loocie

Patience is the key

Hello!

Well, I had a good trading day, but within some mistakes. First part of trading I took similar trades to Muxor's:

Ayumi Morita - Anna Chakvetadze

Tatiana Perebynis - Dinara Safina

Karolina Sprem - Daniela Hantuchova

Hantuchova had her first match on clay this season. I was pretty confident for Sprem to take at least one set against Hantuchova. So I layed Hantuchova 2-0 on set betting market 5€@1,96.

I also layed Hantuchova pre match 100€@1,34 on match odds market. Hantuchova took first game from Sprem and I lost my self confidence, but Sprem could take 2nd game, so score was 1-1. I backed 20€@1,34 back on Hantuchova to minimize my liability. Maybe this was a mistake. If you have a plan, than stick to it. Sprem won first set 6-3 and I took out risk. Later in third set I layed Sprem again to have a profit each way.

It is good to have this profit, but I think it could be more than 21,00€, maybe I need more self confidence.

total profit today: +34,15€.

All the best, Loocie

Who's that girl

Players are back on court. First match to trade today was

Ayumi Morita - Anna Chakvetadze

Bakced Chakvetadze when Ayumi leading with one break in first set and let it run till 1.01.

Bets for the match:

Back Chakvetadze 10€ @ 1.39

Lay Chakvetadze 20€ @ 1.01

Profit: 3,70€ (+37% ROI)

Result: Chakvetadze won 6-3, 6-1

 

Parallel match was

Tatiana Perebynis - Dinara Safina

Same trades like on Chakvetadze match. Backed Safina after early break, but took out risk after first set and made each way at 1.01 as it is still Dinara Safina, who can lose every match at any time.

Bets for the match:

Back Safina 10€ @ 1.56

Lay Safina 10€ @ 1.1

Lay Safina 4,5€ @ 1.01

Profit: 4,65€ (+46,5% ROI)

Result: Safina won 6-3, 6-3

 

Update 1:

Victoria Azarenka - Dominika Cibulkova

After Cibulkova winning the first set and Azaranka leading 5-3 in second set I took a free lay and layed Azarenka at 2.06, knowing that the odds on the fav are, after the fav losing first set and winning second set, always a around the odds before the match or a little bit higher. Azarenka started at 1.85 before the match. So I hoped Cibulkova to win second set and if not I could trade out with minimal loss. Cibulkova managed to win her service to make it 5-4 and had two break points to 5-5. At that point I layed off half of the risk. Cibulkova didn't manage to break and Azarenka won the set, so I took what I had making very small profit each way. Although Cibulkova won the third set it was better to take out risk here, because I took the free lay and it didn't catch, so I had to close the trade not becomming a total gambler.

Bets for the match:

Lay Azarenka 10€ @ 2.06

Lay Cibulkova 5€ @ 1.48

Lay Cibulkova 6€ @ 2.2

Profit: 0,40€ (+3,77% ROI)

Result: Cibulkova won 7-5, 4-6, 6-2

 

Au revoir,

Muxor

Hedging means profit

Hello,

yesterday I applied the tennis hedging strategy:

Wozniacki v Parmentier

Govortsova v Bartoli

Stats so far:

Total p/l: -1,91€

The loss with the match Tanasugarn v Safarova was unlucky. I only needed 6 ticks but score board did not work and nobody was trading this match inplay. To select this match was the right decision.

All the best, Loocie

Things going better

First round of the Bausch&Lomb Championchips in Amelia Island continues and I returned back to normal inplay trading.

Karoline Sprem - Ai Sugiyama

Layed Sprem at 1.25 after winning the first set and leading 2-1 without a break in set two. Ai Sugiyama started to fight right ahead and soon 100% profit each way was reached. Although more profit would be possible I took this trade each way at that point for self confidence.

Bets for the match:

Lay Sprem 50€ @ 1.25

Back Sprem 20€ @ 1.6

Back Sprem 17€ @ 1.8

Profit: 13,10€ (+104,8% ROI)

Players still on court.

Update: Each way profit turned out to be a good decision.

Result: Krem won 6-4, 7-6

Will update this post later if trades follow.

Update 1:

Katarina Srebotnik - Yung-Jan Chan

Backed Srebotnik during first set and layed in second set when break ahead.

Bets for the match:

Back Srebotnik 10€ @ 1.5

Lay Srebotnik 10€ @ 1.1

Lay Srebotnik 4€ @ 1.02

Profit: 3,82€ (+38,2% ROI)

Result: Srebotnik won 6-4, 6-0

 

Update 2:

Anabel Medina Garrigues - Melinda Czink

Layed Czink after winning first set and leading with one break in set two. 90 seconds later I was able to take out risk after Garrigues rebreaked.

Bets for the match:

Lay Czink 50€ @ 1.18

Back Czink 25€ @ 1.36

Lay Garrigues 5€ @ 1.5

Lay Garrigues 15€ @ 1.1

Profit: 21€ (+233,33% ROI)

Result: Medina Garrigues won 3-6, 6-3, 6-4

 

See you,

Muxor

Downswing Continues

Yesterday was again a bad day in trading. Although seeing the hedging strategy for final rounds (quarter finals or later), Loocie and me tried this strategy in one first round match. As the live scoreboard didn't work for this match there was nearly no market inplay, so we lost this trade.

Tanasugarn - Safarova

Bets for the match:

Lay Safarova 86,69€ @ 1.23

Loss: 19,94€ (-100%ROI)

 

In the match

Ruano Pascal - Govortsova

I got an ealry 1.05 in the beginning of second set. Was able to take small profit on Govortsova, but she won in two sets.

Bets for the match:

Lay Govortsova 100€ @ 1.05

Back Govortsova 50€ @ 1.12

Profit: 1€ (+20%ROI)

 

Adios,

Muxor

Conclusion from Miami

Long time no post from me. Was a little bit busy and had not much time for trading.

And all trading I did was not very pleasant.

During the final stages of the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami I had only loss trades, going with Nadal in the final and with Federer against Roddick. So I made a decision, only to do my normal trading in early stages of tournaments and in quarter finals or later will also try the hedging strategy, Loocie is investigating.

This strategy seems to be profitable, as in this tournament it would have been a high strike rate.

We will see if I can get discipline in my trades and not to lose all profit from early stages during final stages. I am quite confident to do so.

 

Wlibamkanni,

Muxor

Trading Nadal v Davydenko

Hi,

today I traded men's final of the 2008 Sony Ericsson Open:

Nadal v Davydenko

I applied the tennis hedging strategy. Layed Nadal pre match @1,61 and backed him @1,84 when score was 1:1 (0-30) and Nadal serving.

All the best, Loocie

Trading Bahrain Grand Prix

Hello,

Massa won the Grand Prix of Bahrain.

I traded the following markets:

Podium finish:

Layed Massa 10€@1,3 pre race

Backed Heidfeld 4€@7 pre race

Layed Heidfeld 4€@2,5 inplay

Layed Heidfeld 4€@2 inplay

Winner:

Back Raikkonen 4€@3,65 pre race

Layed Raikkonen 2€@2 inplay

The day ended in a loss of -1,05€. It is a loss but I had the chance to win more than 20,00€ so I am not annoyed about it.

All the best, Loocie

Accept your profit and stop being greedy

Hi,

today I traded the women's final of the 2008 Sony Ericsson Open in Miami:

S. Williams v Jankovic

I tried the Tennis hedging strategy from Alistair, the blogger of Bet Your Life.

I layed Williams pre match 40€@1,53. When Williams was serving in third game I got a lay bet of 25,40€@2,4 matched and was green each way.

When using the Tennis hedging strategy you have to pick you matches to trade on carefully. If you pick every match on the schedule you might loose. I will investigate this method and write down my thoughts about this strategy in later blog entries.

Wish you all the best, Loocie

Trading Formula 1 Qualifying

Hello,

today i traded qualifying of Bahrain Grand Prix.
I backed Hamilton at 4.3 before the start. He did not perform well and i had some trades to reduce loss because odds where flipping.

Massa dominated this qualifying but made a mistake in his last lap and so Kubica claimed his maiden pole with a stunning lap of 1:33.096 to pip  Massa into second. Kimi Raikkonen was fourth for Ferrari with McLaren's Heikki Kovalainen fifth.

Massa's mistake means profit for me: +11,84€.

Stay lucky, Loocie

I hate matches in final stages!

Yesterday i trading one match:

Roddick v Davydenko

Roddick had a 5-0 Head-to-Head record against Davydenko and played at home so i was quite confident backing him pre match 10€@1,5.

Davydenko played really well and won first set in tie break and i backed Roddick again 5€@2.

Match did not develope as predicted. I had some trades to minimize loss but i finished the game with a loss of -15,90€.

Davydenko won this match 7-6, 6-2.

My trading is good in early rounds of matches in a tournament, but in match from quarter final i make regularly losses, so i have to trade these final rounds completely different.

All the best, Loocie

today's trading

Hello,

today i traded two matches:

Dementieva v Jankovic

Layed Jankovic 10€@1,56 after she braked Dementieva in first game of the match. Was hoping for a break festival as we know Dementieva is a good return player with a poor serve. Layed Jankovic 40€@1,25 after winning first set and backed back 30€@1,15 because Dementieva called trainer. Later Dementieva retired and i lost -11,10€.

Blake v Nadal

Layed Nadal pre match 20€@1,64 because Nadal has a poor record against Blake and Blake plays at home. Would have used a stop loss if Blake would have lost first set.
Nadal could not convert any break point in first set so i could green up when Blake won first set. Profit this match 6,41€.

Total loss today: -4,69€.

 

All the best, Loocie

Trading Tennis in Miami

Today I traded one match so far.

Jelena Jankovic - Elena Dementieva

Managed to jump on the Janko-express during first set. Janko won first set very clear, but Dementieva seemed to be injured and called a trainer after first set. She tried to play on, but after Jankovic leading already 3-1 in second set, Dementieva retired.

Result: Jankovic won 6-1, 3-1 ret.

Bets for the match:

Back Jankovic 10€ @ 1.43

Profit: 4,30€ (+43% ROI)

Update1:

James Blake - Rafael Nadal

Stupidity means loss. Like Loocie I layed Nadal prematch at 1.56 and already entered a back bet, but forget to make back bet to go inplay. As I didn't have the time to see the match live I lost.

Result: Nadal won 3-6, 6-3, 6-1

Bets for the match:

Lay Nadal 20€ @ 1.56

Loss: 11,20€ (-100% ROI)

Update2:

I tried to trade the match

Dinara Safina - Vera Zvonareva

althoug beeing tired and althoug saying before that I don't like to trade matches in quarter finals and higher. I didn't listen to myself and was punished fo it.

To many trades to list, but the result after

Zvonareva won 7-5, 6-4

Loss: 18,45€ (-61,5% ROI)

See you,

Muxor

Tennis and Hockey

Yesterday I had not much time for trading tennis, because it's hockey time again. Cologne crushes straight forward to the championship.

First match of the semifinal series against Frankfurt Lions.

Cologne Sharks - Frankfurt Lions 7-1

Two winnings left till the final. And we all know:

We don't play this game to lose!

See some impressions:

In Tennis trading I just tried my luck in one match, but didn't manage to get profit.

In the match

James Blake - Radek Stepanek

I took a free lay during first set, with Blake leading with one break. Stepanek didn't manage to fight back and after Blake winning the set I backed him with leaving minimal loss on him and about 10% profit on Stepanek. Blake won in two sets, so I had to take the small loss.

Result: Blake won 6-3, 6-4

Bets for the match:

Lay Blake 30€ @ 1.34

Back Blake 29€ @ 1.33

Loss: 0,63€ (-6,17% ROI)

Bis bald,

Muxor