Stupid is as stupid does

Hello,

I had busy days at work so I could not trade very much. Not having much time for trading could be a reason for doing stupid things.

2008-04-22

Safin v Malisse

Layed Safin 100€@1,01 with the aim to back 50€@1,02 in the hope match could turn. Completely stupid! It is only small money, but it is wasted. There was no reason for doing this.

total loss this match: -1,00€

Andreev v Tursunov

Layed Andreev 20€@1,24 after winning 1st set 7-5. Andreev is not very stable during a match, so I think it was a good Lay. Sadly Tursunov could not fight back and I lost my hole stake.

total loss this match: -4,80€

Ramirez Hidalgo v Simon

I can not remember completely when I entered the market. Simon was injured, but there were good odds available to back Ramirez Hidalgo.

I remember Muxor took odds around 1,6x to back Ramirez Hidalgo. I was chasing ticks stupidly: Back 1,69 was available and I can not explain why I tried to get 1,72 or 1,73 but I did not take 1,69. It is completely stupid to chase 2 or 3 ticks. 1,69 was very good. I took 1,33 so I wasted more than 30 ticks to get 2 or 3 ticks!

My bets:

Back Ramirez Hidalgo 10€@1,33

Lay Ramirez Hidalgo 10€@1,01

total profit this match: +3,04€

Bolelli v Davydenko

They played each other a few days ago and Bolelli could win 1st set against Davydenko.

My bets:

Lay Davydenko 50€@1,1 after winning 1st set 6-2

Back Davydenko 20€@1,05 to reduce eventually loss.

In 2nd set Davydenko was leading 4-1.

Back Davydenko 20€@1,2 after Bolelli fought back to 4-4, so I had a free bet with 10€ profit on Bolelli and 0€ on Davydenko, but Davy won 2nd set 7-6 and I could not make profit.

total profit this match: 0,00€

2008-04-23

Lapentti v Tipsarevic

How statistics can lie! Lapentti  won 1st set 7-5. Tipsarevic had only 34% 1st serve and won only 25% return points in 1st set.

I backed Lapentti 10€@1,49 when score was 4-4 in 2nd set. Until this time Tipsarevic only won two return points in second set. I was quit confident about Lapentti winning an eventually tie break or breaking Tipsarevic. Tippy could reach a tie break an won 2nd set 7-6. Odds moved against me, but I was able to reduce liability but I did not. That was a mistake. I lost my whole stake.

total loss this match: -10€

Vliegen v Gasquet

I got an info about an injury of Gasquet and decided to apply tennis hedging strategy. I know using this strategy in early stages in tournaments is very risky. I learned this again when Gasquet won this match 6-1, 6-2.

total loss this match: -20€

stats tennis hedging strategy: -3,67€

today 2008-04-24

Djokovic v A Murray

Again something stupid. Laying Djokovic 100€1,01 to lose 1€.

total loss this match: -1,00€

Querrey v Gasquet

I could return to my normal way of trading tennis matches without being stupid.

Gasquet won 1st set 6-2 and odds on him moved to 1,1. In the first game of the 2nd set I could see some strange swings on odds so I layed Gasquet 100€@1,05 when Querrey was serving at 1-1 (0-15). This was a very tight game, Gasquet had 7 break points but could not convert any of them. After winning this game I could green up with a back Gasquet 50€@1,1 but I did not get all money matched, only 70,49€ and so I cancelled rest of the money, but was green.

Querrey improved his serve and took a 5-4 lead with Gasquet serving. Odds on Gasquet were around 1,08. This was a great free lay. Gasquet could only reach a 5-5 and odds would return to 1,05 or 1,06, so only 2 or 3 ticks risk with the possibility to gain 20 or 30 ticks. But it is important to back back the player you layed, when he wins his service game.

Gasquet did not and I could green up at 1,3 (so 22 ticks won). I green up each way to make a profit of 15,86€ with only 5€ risk. More than 300% ROI!

total profit this match: +15,86€

By the way: Gasquet lost this match 6-2, 4-6, 3-6.

Here are some conclusions to improve my trading and avoid stupid "trades":

• Do not chase ticks!
  
• Do not enter markets without a plan!
  
• Take stop loss according to situation. Do not lose your whole stake!
  
• Apply tennis hedging strategy only in final stages (QF, SF, F) of tournaments!

I will keep this in mind and hope to continue good trading from previous weeks.

All the best, Loocie