Analysis of January 2010

Hello,

this month was not the best one for me. “Disappointing” describes it the best.

American Football: -€34.72
Hmm…What to say about it? My strategy did not work the way I expected it. Maybe I am looking for too big odds movements. Need to do some more research.

Basketball: €1.88
Did not traded really Basketball. This figure just came from developing the bet matching for a bot.

Horse Racing: –€17.70
I started well with three profitable selections in a row at decent odds. Then two losers turned the month into a negative one. This can happen, so I am not too worried about. There will be better months for sure.

Soccer: -€1.39
I had two bets this weekend: B Munich v Mainz on Over/Under 2.5 goals market and Stuttgart v Dortmund : Match Odds market. The later one lost, so I made a small loss.

Tennis: –€14.52
The first month of a tennis season is always a tough one. There is really much uncertainty about the players form in the first few matches.
One of my main goals during 2010 is to become more professional in the way I am trading. I kept record of my trades and if you have a look at the numbers, it is not that bad, except the strike rate:

Total Trades 35
Win Trades 15
Loss Trades 19
Scratched 1
Strike Rate 44.52%
Average Win +10.24
Average Loss: –8.85

Generally I have a strike rate of 55-60% of profitable trades. This month I was not patient enough. I entered too many matches. Here is a graph of the progress of the P&L figure:
 

There is much space for improvement.

January Total P&L:  -€66.45
A disappointing month and a disappointing start into the trading year 2010, but this is just a bigger motivation for me for the next months. I know I can do better and I am sure I will.

What about the betting bots?
They are currently running in simulation mode and it seems the horrible weeks are behind us. I need to apply rules to protect the bank roll from those bad runs with daily maximum allowed losses. This might reduce the possible profit, but it also helps to stay in the game.

This week Betfair’s API service was totally crap. Today the API service was down again for sixth time this week alone.

LaylaCheval could have produced a profit of 50 points this month with the new filters and rules. I will work out the past results with the new filter and if this works I will give it another try.

HorstBecker is not yet performing as expected. I have not yet done all the research and analysing of the results with new filters and rules. So still a lot of work in front.

That’s it so far.

Cheers, Loocie

Review and Preview

My 2nd year of trading on sports is over. Let’s have a look how I did:

Review of 2009

Tennis: 
I started well with a pleasant January profit of +€32.77 and a fantastic February profit of +€129.74, but then I totally lost my confidence. I had a couple of losses where I made some stupid mistakes. My staking was also too aggressive and I had too big liabilities during the trades. I cut my winnings and let my losses run.
Then I took some time off from trading tennis and late in the season I decided to start again with €20.00 stakes. I changed my style of trading to just focussing on laying low odds which was really an improvement. I did not track my results as I should, so I can not give an exact overview how I did. Tracking results will be an issue for 2010.

Soccer:
Did not trade that much soccer, but had a few bets and trades. I tried to use Soccer Mystic and trade soccer matches, but that will not work for me. It is too boring to watch a match and the odds closely. I think I will keep having an eye on pre match odds and if I can identify a good value (like Germany v Russia) I will put in a bet. I did not track my soccer bets, but I am in a small profit.

American Football:
I was not able to trade many matches, because my Pay TV subscription expired. I started to follow Stock Lemon’s picks. I was a little lucky, because I missed some losing bets. According to a stake of €10.00 I made +€56.66.

Formula 1:
This sport was my main income source for this year. I made +€307.08 during the year. Mainly I focussed on the fastest lap market, but I also had a look at some other markets, too. There is so much value in so many markets. I learned from my mistakes of 2008, where I could not accept a loss and put more and more into a bad position.

Horse Racing:
Three years ago I started to select some false favourites on horse racing. I only paper traded those selections and it did not pay off. So I stopped it.
This year I had a look at the excel file I created in the past with the past selections and I applied some filters. If I was more patient the stats suggested a decent profit.
At the end of March I started again paper trading my lay selections with a far more patient approach. At the end of May I started putting money on the selections with a bank of €100. I started with a maximum liability of 5% of the bank. During the last two months I raised my liability to 10% of the bank. I doubled the bank in eight months, which is a pleasant result.

Betting Bots:
I was always fascinated by having a betting bot. I started developing my first Betfair API application in June 2008. I wanted to develop a mobile Betfair application for Windows Mobile devices.
In June 2009 I started to develop a betting bot.
Currently we are running two bots for horse racing. One for backing and one for laying.
It is quite disappointing that both started really well, but now they are performing not as expected. I double checked past results and source code of both bots. There is no bug. The bots are working reliable and they do the work correctly. Only the results are quite different to the past results. 
It might be possible that in the near future both bots will run in simulation mode again.
Currently I am working on the next betting bot. I have still many ideas I want to automate. Once a bot is created it just need to run and track data in simulation mode. 2010 will be exciting!

Conclusion:

The Numbers:

Starting bank: €250.00
Current bank: €825.56 (+230.22%) 

Biggest single profit: +€79.11
Biggest single loss: –€50.47

The Staking:

Staking has been always an issue for me. I tried to adapt staking rules from other traders, but this did not work for me.
Generally, I am a fan of the KISS principle: Keep It Simple and Stupid!
That’s what I did with my style of trading this year. No complex strategy, just lay low.

Patience:

With my horse laying selections I learned that it is better to stay away, if there is no good opportunity. If you can avoid losing money, you will win more money. Forcing trades and getting in too often and too early was a main problem during the last two years.

Tracking Results:

I have not been good in tracking results, especially in tennis. That’s also a reason why I can not write down my complete stats for tennis trading.

Setting Goals:

At the start of 2009 I set myself a goal to reach a net profit of €1000.00. Did not reach this goal. I have learned this year, that it is not about chasing numbers.
It is about getting a professional approach:

• Apply always your trading rules
• Track your results
• Learn from mistakes (and avoid doing them again)

Preview of 2010

I will split this section into two parts: Personal Trades and Betting Bots.

Personal Trades

In 2010 I will focus on Tennis, Formula 1, Horse Racing and American Football.

Staking:

Tennis:
I will keep it as simple as possible: I will trade with a fixed staking and I will start with a stake size of €50.00.

Formula 1:
Stake size will be €20.00 to €50.00, the same like 2009.

American Football:
Stake size will be €20.00.

Horse Racing:
Will continue with a liability of 10% of the horse racing bank.

What about setting goals?
Chasing random numbers will not work for me, so I will not set me a goal to reach a certain amount of profit.
I want to turn my trading into a more professional one, so I want to concentrate on trading behaviour (applying all my rules, patience, etc) and tracking all my results.

Betting Bots

I have several ideas for automated betting. Along with the horse racing bots I am currently working on a bot for American Sports.

The goal for 2010 is to create a least one reliable bot and to create a solid income stream from it. I think in a few month I will have a couple of bots doing their work. Maybe some of them will only run in simulation mode for a while. There is no need to rush. Sooner or later they will do their work once all the parameters are found.

Changes to the Blog

I will also apply some changes to the blog. I will outsource the horse laying selections to a newsletter tool where people can subscribe/unsubscribe to. Currently I am still looking for a comfortable piece of software.

That’s it so far.
I wish all of you a prosperous new year!

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis of November 2009

Hello,

Another month is over and it is time for a summary.
The way I am working on Betfair changed a little during November, so I will change my analysis too. There will be a part handling the betting bot performance and a part related to my personal trades:

Personal Trades:

American Football: €47.20
I was a little lucky this month. Missed a few bets, because I was not at home to place some bets. The bets I missed all lost.

Horse Racing: -€20.77
My horse laying selections did not worked well this month. It was quite difficult to identify good laying opportunities, so I just had a few bets. Three of those won so I finished the month with a loss.

Motor Sport: €15.40
A small profit from the start of the month. Nothing interesting to say. I am looking forward to the next season.
Will Schumacher come back and drive for Mercedes GP?

Soccer: €10.52
Inspired by Psychoff I had a look at trading on soccer with Soccer Mystic. The good news is that I know how to trade on soccer. The bad news is, it is really boring. I do not enjoy trading on soccer. It is quite exhausting to watch the matches and the odds closely. Quite different to trading tennis.

Tennis: €45.17
I am happy about the result of trading tennis for November. There were not many matches, but I traded really well. During the last three months I think I have found my way of trading tennis: Just lay low!
That’s it. The earlier you lay low, the higher is the chance that the selection you laid will trade at higher odds. There are matches were I can not identify such a situation, but if so, then I do not trade this match. There is no reason to waste money.
Staking has been a big issue for me on trading tennis during the whole year. During the last three months I always traded with a fixed stake of €20.00 which worked quite well. With that staking it is also easy to evaluate my trades afterwards. For the next tennis season I will raise that stake size, but I will write about that in detail in my preview of 2010. I just need to avoid over staking, a mistake I made this year and which let me struggle during the mid season in tennis.

Total P&L: €97.52
Overall a really pleasant profit for the month. My time/trading ratio decreased too, which is another motivation. I do not need to fight to make a profit like this. Just need to do, what I know.

Betting Bots:

Both bots started exceptional profitable, but this month was not that good as the past months on simulation mode:

HorstBecker
LaylaCheval
  
HorstBecker had a really awful month, but I assume this should just happen to separate the boys from the men. We need to have balls and trust the system. There will be winning streaks and there will be losing runs. You can not avoid one of them. You need to deal with both. Have a look at an article from Harry Fox:

Losing Runs versus Winning Runs in Horse Race Betting

Layla had a profitable month, but made all the profit in the first two weeks of November. The last two weeks have been not that good and Layla produced a loss. All in all LaylaCheval made a decent profit in November, but we just started putting money on it from mid November. It had to happen to start with a loss :)

At the beginning of the month I was watching many of the races the bots were involved, but this will make you crazy. I will not do it anymore. It is too stressful. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. A single race or a single days is not important. Getting a long term view is what you need, if you are doing something like that.

Both bots are now running on a windows server. No need to run a personal computer for the bots. We just need to log in the windows server via remote desktop and we can watch both of them working. The bots are doing their work reliable. No crashes, no bugs so far.

There are still a few things to work out:
Firstly, we want to have a central tracking platform for tracking the bets and market activities on Betfair for both bots. So we want to be able to have a real time overview about both bots performance. This also includes to get a daily report about the profit/loss figure and other indicators.
Secondly we want to implement a reporting and alert system to get emails and SMS when there is an issue with the bots or with the Betfair API.
You see, there is still a lot of work in front of us.
I will keep you updated.

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis Of October 2009

Hello,

another month is over, so it is time to review the results of the month.

American Football: -€7.64
The selections of Stock Lemon did not perform that good in October. Overall there is still a profit, so no problem with that.

Football: €20.90
Just one bet on Germany versus Russia. Great value and nice profit.

Horse Racing: €19.60
The lay selections had a tough month. Two losers at the start of the month. Then we had 10 days without selections, but the patience paid off. Five winnings in the row secured the profit. I used a fixed liability staking of €15.00 per selection.

Motor Sport: -€5.79
Just two races in October: Brazil and Japan. It was not possible to trade the fastest lap market, because there was no liquidity. Tried to discover other markets, which ended in a small loss.

Tennis: €53.35
A really decent result so far. Could have been better, but yesterday I lost on V Williams v Jankovic. This was a great lesson, because I saw what was my mistake: I tried to trade momentum. Trading momentum in WTA tennis matches is the worst thing you could do. Just keep patient and lay low. That’s what I did the whole month except the match yesterday.

Total P&L: €80.42
A nice profit for the month. Currently my maximum stake size is €20.00. Raising stake size is definitely a task for the next year. That’s something I struggled with this year.

The tennis season is nearly over, so I will spend more time on developing the trading bots.
HorstBecker is a bot I developed, which bets on horses. At the moment it is running in simulation mode and showing promising results.
LaylaCheval is a bot, which lays horses. It is also running in simulation mode, but I need to do more coding, to make it easier to get the daily profit/loss figure.
At the moment Muxor is doing all the daily reporting manually, which is a lot of work.
The goal is to have two bots, one for backing, one for laying, which do their work fully automated.

That’s it so far. Will post later possible lay selections.

Cheers, Loocie

Good Results

Hello,

Here is an overview of the trades of last week:

American Football: €20.21
After a bad last week Stock Lemon came back with a 3-1 record. It is always good to come back with a profit after a heavy loss. I am looking forward to next week.

Horse Racing: -€6.33
The lay selections seem to struggle a little at the moment. It is difficult to identify so called false favourites. This month’s strike rate is only 50%. October is not yet over, so I hope there will be some further selections to turn the lay selections into profit.

Soccer: €20.90
It is not usual for me to bet or trade on soccer, but Germany’s odds of 3.2 against Russia was a risk of a tenner worth. I think it was huge value. I expected Germany to be favourite. It was a gift. Thanks for that.

Tennis: €20.83
The good run on tennis continued. I traded on 17 matches, winning on 6 matches, losing on 6 matches and scratching on 5 matches. I traded every matches with a stake of €20.00. I am using a simple low risk strategy and it seems to pay off.

Total P&L: €55.61

Cheers, Loocie

Mixed Results

Hello,

Last weekend was full of sport events and I invested on the following events:

American Football: -€39.95
Stock Lemon had a forgettable weekend with 4 losers. It can happen and I am not angry with that. I am looking on the long term. We will fight back. Maybe next weekend.

Formula 1: -€7.14
Trading the fastest lap market as usual was not possible. No liquidity in-play. I had a look at the following markets:

• Motor Sport / Japanese GP : Winner -4.20
• Motor Sport / Japanese GP : Qual Rd 3 - Top 10 5.36
• Motor Sport / Japanese GP : Overall Qual. Winner -8.30

The market “Qual Rd 3 - Top 10” looks really interesting. There are some really nice odds available. The Formula 1 season is nearly over with just two race ahead, but I will have a look at this market next weekend in Brazil, too.

Tennis: €45.72
Wohoo! I can still do it! Changing my mind about how to trade tennis seems to help me. Have a look at the markets I traded on:

• Tennis / Medina Garrigues v Lu : Match Odds  0.00
• Tennis / Martinez Sanchez v Wozniacki : Match Odds 13.51
• Tennis / Peer v Makarova : Match Odds  -2.80
• Tennis / Safina v Vinci : Match Odds -2.80
• Tennis / Kirilenko v K Bondarenko : Match Odds 1.33
• Tennis / Kuznetsova v Zheng : Match Odds 14.92
• Tennis / Cirstea v Zvonareva : Match Odds -2.60
• Tennis / Dushevina v V Williams : Match Odds 0.04
• Tennis / Rezai v Wozniak : Match Odds 6.55
• Tennis / Azarenka v Li : Match Odds 17.57

What has changed with my trading so far? It may sound weird, but I do not take a stop loss anymore! When you lay a player at 1.2 I can not see any reason why I should take a stop loss at 1.1 or something else. That’s what I did in the past. All the three losses from the matches above came from laying at low odds. All in all I lost –8.60 on those three matches. When trading on Martinez Sanchez v Wozniacki I laid Wozniacki at 1.27 pre match and at 1.13 in-play. The up swing is huge and the down swing is small. I recovered all the losses and more to make a profit on those 4 matches.

Another thing I am doing is to let my winnings run as much as I can. In the past I cut my losses too early and too often.
I know I do not tell you something new about trading. You may have read the same phrases again and again in other trading blogs. I know all these things too, but I needed to make my own experience with that. I think it is the same if you say a child “Do not touch the cook top, it is hot! You will burn your fingers!” It may touch the cook top and burn the fingers, but it will not do this anymore. The child has learned from experience. Therefore I am really glad I am making those experiences on low stakes compared to other traders.

A small loss for the weekend, but I am feeling really good and confident about getting on the winning path soon.

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis Of September 2009

Hello,

During the last few weeks I did not write that much about my trading in detail. The month is almost over, so I will take the time to give you an update how I was doing.
Here is an overview of this months result sorted by sport:

American Football: €27.14
I am investing some money in the free selections of Stock Lemon. There are some good free tipsters outside, so why do not participate?

Horse Racing: €15.35
That’s the profit of my horse lay selections. Not much profit, but still a profit. This month I hade just a few selections.

Motor Sport: €42.14  
Trading Formula 1 races is working really well for me. I am discovering more and more markets of this sport. There is so much value on it. Fantastic!

Tennis: €39.07
During the last few months I struggled a little when trading tennis matches. I think it was a good example of over trading and taking too early too much risk. I tried to be successful in every match. But that is not possible. Losing money in some markets is not the problem. It is not about making profit in as much markets as you can. You just need to cover your losses with your winnings.

Total P&L: €123.70

A good result for me. It shows me that I am on the right track with my new view of trading.

I spent my time not only on trading on sports events. I also did some work on the betting bot front. I already created a bot for another bot for laying horses. Therefore I am also using websites like Timeform. Today I found an interesting race from yesterday:

 
Amenable won with a BSP of 320!! Amazing! The favourite traded in play at 1.06 and lost.
The bot is doing the selections automatically based on certain criteria, but at the moment I am doing the summary of every single race manually via Timeform. The bot selected more than 1000 horses to lay during the last 3 or 4 weeks, so you guess it also lays at higher odds. Therefore I need to collect more data, to see if it might be profitable or not.

I also worked on my Betfair API framework which is in a good progress. Everything is working fine at the moment, but it is a lot of work.

I will keep you updated!

Cheers, Loocie

Start Of The Tennis Season

Hello,

the tennis season has already started with ATP and WTA tournaments. Many players have their first match of the season, so mostly I am only watching the matches to get a feeling about the fitness and improvements of the players, but I also traded some matches:

Ivanovic v Vinci
Pre match odds: Ivanovic: 1.06, Vinci
When Roberta Vinci was leading 4-2 in the first set and Ivanovic was serving I backed Ivanovic 50€@1.34. Ivanovic hold her service and odds dropped to 1.14, so I layed Ivanovic with 25€@1.14 to minimize risk. When Ivanovic was leading 6-5 I made it each way @1.08, which was a wise decision, because Ivanovic lost the first set and odds on her moved to 1.48. 
Ivanovic v Vinci 6-7, 7-5, 6-1
Total profit this match: +10.02

Mathieu v Nishikori
Pre match odds: Mathieu: 1.91, Nishikori: 2.08
I missed one trading point, when Mathieu was leading 3-0 and odds on him dropped to 1.35. Nishikori fought back and odds raised to 1.9 on Mathieu.
When Mathieu won the first set I layed him 50€@1.3, because I expected Nishikori to take a set. I watched this match via Betfair live video and I saw Nishikori was asking for a medical timeout,so I scratched the trade.
Mathieu v Nishikori 6-3, 6-4
Total profit this match: +0.37

Nadal v Monfils Pre match odds: Nadal: 1.1, Monfils: 10.5
I watched this match via Betfair live video. Monfils played really well and won the first set 6-4. Odds on Nadal raised to 1.6.
When Monfils was 2-1 leading and Nadal was serving I layed Nadal 37€@1.9 because Monfils dominated the match and put really pressure on Nadal. At 2-1* and Advantage Monfils I layed him 20€@1.7 to minimize risk. Later I made it each, but I think it was too early.
Nadal v Monfils 4-6, 4-6
Total profit this match: +10.91

I also traded two NFL matches, but I could not make a decent profit. Scratched both matches:

Total profit NFL: +1.39

It is a good start into the new trading year. I missed some trading points, but I kept cool and followed all my trading rules.

Stats so far:
Total profit this month: +22.69

That’s it for now. Be lucky, if you are trading!

Cheers, Loocie

Do Not Take Short Positions

Hello,

Christmas is already over and now I have time to post my latest trades of the year.

This is not the result I wanted to achieve. I have to rethink about my style of trading American Football. Mostly I take short positions, but I think this will not work when using larger stakes, so I need to work on taking long positions. It is less stressful and I do not rely very much on fast live pictures. During the match Baltimore @ Dallas I identified such trading spots, but I did not take a long position.

That's it for now. I will do my analysis for December later and I will have a review of 2008 and a preview of 2009.

I wish you all a happy new year!

Cheers, Loocie

Soccer, Biathlon And American Football

Hello,

during the last week I had the following trades:

Trading Soccer

Soccer does not work for me this month. Again I forced a trade in the match Frankfurt v St. Pauli. The best method for me is laying a team when the score is still 0-0. I should concentrate on this.

In the match Bochum v Köln I layed Bochum pre match @2.2 which was a low price. I expected Bochum @2.4-2.5, but Köln did not played very well and I scratched the trade. Köln won the match 2-1, but I think it was the right decision.

Total loss trading Soccer: -10.25

Trading Biathlon

Again I had a look at the pursuit in biathlon. I missed one trade after the 1st shooting.
Just before the start of the last shooting the odds on Svendsen were 1.9x-2.0x and this was a typical gambling point. I recognized this and closed the trade with a small loss.

Total loss trading Biathlon: -0.72

Trading American Football

I am happy to post some green figures too :) Both matches were difficult to trade.

Total profit trading American Football: +12.92

There is only one week of trading for me this year. I would be happy if I could turn this month's small loss into a small profit to finish the last month of the year with a green figure.

Stats so far:
Total profit since last update: +1.86
Total loss this month: -4.65

Cheers, Loocie

Forcing Trades And Discovering Sports To Trade On

Hello,

here is an overview of my last trades:

Trading Soccer

All in all I forced the trades. The first match Mgladbach v Leverkusen went against me and I took the stop loss. I did not want to finish the day with a loss, so I put on more trades without having prepared them pre match, a beginner's mistake!

Total loss trading Soccer: -11.82

Trading American Football

This match was difficult to trade. Pre match I expected NYG to win this match. After the first half I had a risk free 6€ bet on NYG, but they lost the game and I made no profit.

Total profit American Football: +0.09

Trading Biathlon

At this weekend I had a look at the winter sports market on Betfair. General I am not interested in winter sports, but biathlon seems to be a good sport to trade on. A race lasts ca. 45 minutes and the way the odds move suits my style of trading. I will have a look at biathlon the next weekend too. Maybe I have found another sport to trade on during the tennis off-season.

Total profit Biathlon: +5.22

Stats so far:
Loss since last update: -6.51
Total loss this month: -6.51

I do not want to chase this loss, but if there is a good opportunity I will put on some trades.

That's it for now, have a nice day!

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis Of November 2008

Hello,

as mentioned in the last blog entry November 2008 was my best trading month so far. Here is my analysis:

Trading Tennis

number of matches I traded: 9
number of wins: 8
number of losses: 1
scratched trades: 0

number of wins > 3€: 5
number of losses > 3€: 1

total win: +37.15
total loss: -7.46 
total pl: +29.69

average win: +4.64
average loss: -7.46
average pl: +3.30

win rate: 89%
max win: +11.83
max loss: -7.46

Firstly, a good result. I knew that the tennis player are tired after a long season, so I picked the matches I traded on very carefully.

The conclusion of this month is: Less is more. There is no need to trade as much matches as possible.

Trading Soccer

number of matches I traded: 16
number of wins: 9
number of losses: 3
scratched trades: 4

number of wins > 3€: 5
number of losses > 3€: 1

total win: +27.31
total loss: -15.26 
total pl: +12.05

average win: +3.03
average loss: -5.09
average pl: +0.75

win rate: 75%
max win: +6.38
max loss: -11.42

Trading Soccer started with a bigger loss of -11.42. I am not sure, if this big loss was avoidable.

Actually I am trading Soccer with a stake size of 10€, but I will raise them in the next year, if my confidence in trading Soccer is a little bit higher than today.

Trading Other Sports

American Football: +22.48
Handball: +5.56
Motor Sport: +0.37

Every sport I traded in November 2008 ended in a profit, which is a really good result for a beginner in sports trading.

My actual trading bank is €264.65, so it is time to readjust my stake sizes. I do not expect very much trading during December 2008, so I will readjust my stake sizes at the start of 2009. I will also set goals for the trading year 2009, but I will do this after a complete review and analysis of the trading year 2008.

Overall stats:

November 08: +€70.10
October 08: +€38.35
September 08: -€11.57
August 08: -€7.74
July 08: +€29.10
June 08: +€25.90
May 08: +€1.36
April 08: +€25.27
March 08: +€3.08

That's it for now. I expect to trade only a few soccer matches and NFL games in December 2008 and I will only update this blog on a weekly basis.

I wish you all the best when trading!

Cheers, Loocie

Best Month So Far

Hello,

here is an overview of my last trades:

Trading Soccer

Trading American Football

Overall stats
Total profit since last update: +18.74
Total profit this month: +70.10

I do not know what to write about. Mostly I am writing about the mistakes I am making, but during this month I did not make many mistakes. I will make the analysis of November 2008 later this week, but there is one statistic I want to mention now:

I traded 31 sport events and I had only 5 losses.

I had many scratched trades, but I think these trades helped me to avoid losses.

That's it for now. Nothing more to write about.

All the best with trading!

Cheers, Loocie

Trading Soccer And American Football

Hello,

here is an overview of my last trades:

Trading Soccer

Bielefeld v Leverkusen

Pre match odds: Bielefeld 5.3, Leverkusen 1.75, Draw 4.1

I watched this match live and fancied Leverkusen to win. Score after the first half was still 0-0 and Bielefeld was really good defending. At the 50th minute I layed Leverkusen 10€@2.04 because at this time the odds should be something around 2.1-2.2 and Leverkusen could not create very much pressure on Bielefeld's defence. Three minutes later Bielefeld scored and I could make it each way.

Bielefeld v Leverkusen 2-1

I traded also Aachen v Osnabruck (0.00) and Karlsruhe v Dortmund (+0.27), but I scratched both trades.

Total profit trading soccer: +6.26

Trading American Football

NY Jets @ Tennessee

Pre match odds: NY Jets: 2.98, Tennessee: 1.5

I watched this match live on NASN. As mentioned earlier I am not happy about my trading of American Football. During this match I tried to anticipate the odds and if there is a significant difference between my predicted odds and the actual odds then I would put on a trade. I used a stake size of 10€. I was really surprised about the odds I got matched. I think there were some people betting (or trading) on this match without watching it. Within seconds I got matched odds less then evens on both sides!

I also wanted to trade the match Giants @ Arizona, but NASN had problems and I did not have live pictures, so I skipped that.

NY Jets 34 @ Tennessee 13

Stats so far:
Total profit since last update: +15.76
Total profit this month: +51.36

It has been quiet days on the trading front for me, so I could read some articles and books about trading in general. I found the web site http://www.tradingpsychology1.com/ and it seems really interesting stuff.

A year ago I was also one of these "Wannabe"-Traders who asked many people about their way of trading and mostly I got the answer "Study the market and learn to be disciplined and patient!". That was not my desired answer, but now I think I have a small clue, why this answer is the best advice I could get, because:

• When trading you need to know how the market reacts,
• You need to know which style of trades suits yourself
• And you need to learn that trading is hard work.

Finally, I also think you need experience when trading. Nobody can tell you something which makes you experienced like a professional trader, you need to make experiences by yourself.

That's it for now. I wish you all the best.

Cheers, Loocie

Roundup Of The Weekend

Hello,

during the last few days I made the following trades:

Trading Tennis

I am happy to have a profit in the last trade of the year. I was very disciplined and patient, although I missed a trading opportunity.

Total Profit Tennis: +5.72

Trading Soccer

In the match Koblenz v Mainz I was a little bit lucky. I backed Mainz right before a corner kick and they scored. Mainz was the better team and they put very much pressure on Koblenz' defence.

Total Profit Soccer: +6.11

Trading American Football

Trading NFL games does not work as expected. Often I have a profit each way and a fumble or an interception occurs and all the profit is gone. Yesterday in the match Chargers v Steelers I recognized that I am mixing my trading style. Generally I like it to take long positions, because it is not so hectic like taking short positions and you do not rely so much on a fast Internet connection and fast pictures on TV. When Trading American Football I am mixing taking long positions and taking short positions. Very often I take a long position and then I change my mind about the game and make this position to a short position. I think I have to work out a cheat sheet for Trading American Football like I did it for Trading Tennis.

Total Loss American Football: -0.38

The next weeks will be very quiet. Mostly I will trade at the weekend (Soccer and American Football), maybe some handball too.

During the last week I read that WUBT Radio is back. When You Bet Today radio show is hosted by “Man of Mystery”, who is running a betting bot and in his radio show he interviews some people from the betting front. Some of the interviews are available as podcast. I like to listen to his radio shows. It is very interesting to hear about people who are also involved in trading or betting.

Stats so far:
Total profit since last update: +11.45
Total profit this month: +30.24

All the best!

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis Of October 2008

Hello,

another month is over, so it is time to analyse the trades of the last month.

Trading Tennis

number of matches I traded: 64
number of wins: 38
number of losses: 25
scratched trades: 1

number of wins > 3€: 21
number of losses > 3€: 18

total win: +140.10
total loss: -143.89 
total pl: -3.79

average win: +3.69
average loss: -5.76
average pl: -0.06

win rate: 60%
max win: +11.64
max loss: -18.05

What was bad this month:

As mentioned in the last blog entry I am cutting my winnings more than my losses.

I traded too many matches. I have certain situations where I put on a trade depending on the score, but in future I have to consider the odds at the given situation too.

What was good this month:

The new money management rules which I established after my analysis of September 2008 helped my to trade without fear.

Mostly I took stop losses when necessary.

I planned every match I traded.

Trading Soccer

number of matches I traded: 14
number of wins: 7
number of losses: 5
scratched trades: 2

number of wins > 3€: 6
number of losses > 3€: 2

total win: +42.28
total loss: -10.71
total pl: +31.57

average win: +6.04
average loss: -2.14
average pl: +2.26

win rate: 58%
max win: +21.85
max loss: -4.26

Most of the profit came from the match Bochum v Hoffenheim. During this month I was very patient when trading soccer. I know there are only a few key events during a match so it is essential to keep a clear head and being patient.

Trading other sports

Formula 1 +4.19
NFL -6.96

Overall stats:

October 08: +€38.35
September 08: -€11.57
August 08: -€7.74
July 08: +€29.10
June 08: +€25.90
May 08: +€1.36
April 08: +€25.27
March 08: +€3.08

Cheers, Loocie

Side Steps

Hello,

here is an update of my last trades:

I am still not happy about my Tennis trading. I traded 11 matches, won on 6 and lost on 5 matches. Generally I count matches as 'scratched' when the pl is between -3€ and +3€, so I won on 4, lost on 3 and scratched 4 matches. I do not want to make an analysis here, but it is a fact, that my losses are too high or my wins are too small. I think I cut my winnings more than my losses, maybe I am sometimes too careful. I will investigate this issue deeper in my analysis of October. That's it for now.

Stats so far:

total profit this month: +€4.52

Cheers, Loocie

Mixed Bag

Hello,

here is an update of my last trades:

Since the last blog entry I made the huge amount of 2ct!! Incredible!!!!! A small profit is better than a huge loss, so I can not complain. The good thing is I stuck to my money management rules which helped me to stay in profit, but more important now it is easier for me to analyse my trades in detail. For example the match Gasquet vs Fish was a non-method trade, i.e. I put on a trade without having identified a trading opportunity. I had also two matches where I took my intended stop loss too late (Petrova v Pennetta and Verdasco vs Cilic). If I can avoid these mistakes, I can make some decent profits according to my stake sizes. During the last few days I have also recognized that I have to adjust my trading spots. Some of them only work when several criteria are matched.

That's it for now. Will update later this week.

Stats so far:
total profit this month: +€11.19

Cheers, Loocie

Update of my last trades

Hello,

during the last few days I made the following trades:

Trading Tennis

Dementieva v Azarenka

I started the trading with a stupid loss. I was trading the first set only with the hope of a service break. Before the tie break of the first set was played I had a loss of -3.75. During the tie break I started to gamble. What a mistake. Both players made many receiving points and their percentages of serve was equally.

During the first games in the second set I was indecision about how the match could develop and I made complete stupid decisions. Should have stopped the trade.

Dementieva v Azarenka 6-7, 6-3, 1-6

Li v Petrova

Na Li had a big fight against Serena Williams, so she could have been a little bit tired. Petrova seemed in a good form. She only lost against Schnyder in Bali and against Safina. Petrova leads the h2h with 5-0. Pre match odds: Li 3.84, Petrova 1.85.

I backed Petrova 20€@1.6 when I saw her serving very well. Na Li had problems with this serve and Petrova won this match comfortably.

Li v Petrova 2-6, 3-6

Zvonareva v Jankovic

I expected a close match. Both players are in a good shape and they had a tight match against each other in Beijing.

When score was 3-3 30-0 and Jankovic serving I backed 20€@1.67. When she was leading 5-3 and serving for match I laid off to have 4.90€ each way. During the second set I made a huge mistake. I laid Jankovic at 1.6, which was a big price for backing her, because her pre match odds where 1.62. I could scratch that a little bit and lost only a few cents.

Zvonareva v Jankovic 6-7, 6-7

Petrova v Azarenka

Petrova was clear favourite for me. She played really well yesterday and was serving very good. Azarenka had a good but long match against Dementieva and she was also playing the double tournament in Stuttgart, so maybe she was a little bit tired. She also had a injury timeout during the match vs Dementieva. I backed Petrova 10€@1.7 pre match.

Petrova had a good start and was leading 4-0 and I laid off to have a 4.12€ profit each way.

I entered again, but this was not a good opportunity. Took the stop loss, but most of the profit was already wasted. Petrova won the first set 6-4 and I backed her again @1.26. She broke Azarenka and I laid off. I had some quick trades, but mostly I scratched them.

Petrova v Azarenka 6-4, 6-4

V Williams v Jankovic

I had some trades during the first set, but could not make a profit and I made it each way before the tie break. That was a good decision, because trading in tie breaks is mostly gambling.

Later in the second set and made a stupid trade and had a loss of 8 or 9€. This loss came from not taking a trading position and I could not accept this mistake I made. I put more money in and finally I lost 18€.

Generally, I have no problem with taking a stop loss, I only have a problem with it, when I make some silly mistakes. Then I can not accept the loss and try to force this trade into a profit. Therefore I have to learn to stop doing these silly mistakes like throwing a profit away or chasing for possible service breaks.

V Williams v Jankovic 7-6, 5-7, 2-6

Petrova v Jankovic

That was well traded. I took stop losses when necessary and I have only a small loss.

Petrova v Jankovic 6-4, 6-3

Tursunov v Mathieu

Tursunov v Mathieu 7-6, 1-6, 6-4

I backed Tursunov when he was 2-0 behind in the second set. It was an early break and odds on Tursunov @1.65. Pre match his odds was 1.66, so a good trading opportunity. The Russian tanked the 2nd set and I had to take my stop loss. Was not a bad trade. I followed all my rules and I am sure it will pay off in the next matches.

Mauresmo v Cornet

Pre match odds: Mauresmo 1.57, Cornet 2.7

Mauresmo was favourite for me. She leads the H2H 2-0 and Cornet seems to be not in form. Maybe she is just tired from a long season.

Cornet served first. When score was 0-0 40-40 I backed Mauresmo 10€@1.51. Cornet made the game and an early break, so score was 2*-0 Cornet. I laid Cornet 5€@1.99. Mauresmo fought back and I laid Mauresmo 5€@1.51.

When score was 2*-2 and Cornet was serving there was a 1.3 Lay Mauresmo available. This would have been the perfect odds to take out the risk, because if Mauresmo would win the 1st set, odds would have been 1.2. I did not take out the risk so I had to scratch the trade with a Lay Mauresmo 10€@1.7 when Cornet was leading 4-3* and Mauresmo was serving. Cornet won the 1st set 7-6 and I laid her 25€@1.46. Great value it was! Stats of both players were equal, so there was a high chance of a 2nd set win by Mauresmo. When score was 2-1* in the 2nd set and Cornet was serving I backed her 10€@1.7 to minimize risk. When score was 2-1* 15-40 there was at least a 2.0 Back Cornet available and this would have been the perfect situation to eliminate the risk and make it each way. Again I didn't made the order, so later when score was 2*-2 0-30 and Mauresmo was serving I had to scratch the trade.

Good: I identified two good trading spots and I took the stop losses when necessary. I recognized early, that I had to close the first trade @ 1.3, but I accepted the mistake and concentrated further on trading the match.

Bad: I did not close the trade, when there was the perfect situation for.

Mauresmo v Cornet 6-7, 6-3, 6-4

Cibulkova v Bartoli

Laid Cibulkova 25€@1.31 after winning the first set. Bartoli made a break and was leading 1*-0 in the first set, backed a small amount back.

When score was 1*-0 0-30 I scratched the trade.

Cibulkova v Bartoli 6-1, 4-1 retired

Trading Soccer

Stuttgart v Bremen -€2.00

Trading NFL

Seattle @ NY Giants -€0.74

Stats so far:

total loss this month: -€11.42

My last trades of Tennis were better. I was patient and took the stop losses when necessary. My cheat sheet helped me to stay focused. Also my new money management rules let me stay in a trade without having fear.

I am interested how my trading develops with this new rules.

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis of September 2008

Hello,

today I will do my analysis of September 2008:

Trading Tennis

number of matches I traded: 37
number of wins: 18
number of losses: 19
scratched trades: 0

number of wins > 3€: 10 
number of losses > 3€: 7

total win: +74.68
total loss: -69.96
total pl: +4.72 

average win: +4.15
average loss: -3.68
average pl: +0.13 

win rate: 49%
max win: +11.15
max loss: -13.81

Again not a result I am very happy with. Not because of the small win, but more because I made so many mistakes:

I did not do any research before a match. I used different stake sizes and I made stupid decisions and forced trades.

So, how to change this:

Actually, I have created a cheat sheet for trading tennis with all my rules and dos and don'ts, so I can have a look at this sheet when trading tennis.

During this month I did not use the same liability in every match and this makes it difficult to measure my trading.

Trading soccer

number of matches I traded: 15
number of wins: 9
number of losses: 6
scratched trades: 0

number of wins > 3€: 6 
number of losses > 3€: 0

total win: +27.16
total loss: -10.99
total pl: +16.17 

average win: +3.02
average loss: -1.83
average pl: +1.08 

win rate: 60%
max win: +5.39
max loss: -3.00

A good result, but not perfect. I do not mean the profit, but rather the way I traded soccer. I had some wrong trades and made some avoidable mistakes.

I know there are only two or three key events during a soccer match, so if you are not prepared and you force a trade, you can lose your money very soon.

That is the problem I have sometimes when trading tennis: I know there can be many swings and flip flops, so I am too often hoping for the next swing in my favour.

Trading Formula 1

This month I learned it the hard way what can happen, if you do not take a stop loss.

The loss during the Italian Grand Prix was too massive to recover it with other trades. I was not focused on the bigger picture, I was focused on the actual battle I had.

total loss trading Formula 1: -€46.47

Trading NFL

I traded 4 matches and scratched two of them. With only 4 matches it is not 100% reliable how I can trade this sport, so I have to wait and see next month what is it about.

total profit trading NFL: +€9.91

Trading Ice Hockey

I had only one trade and made a profit. It is also not reliable. Will see, if I can trade other matches and we have to see how it will develop.

total profit trading Ice Hockey: +€4.09

Overall there is a loss in September 2008: -€11.57.

Only one trade destroyed a possible good trading result for this month. I am happy that I was able to reduce the loss, but all in all I need to learn accepting losses.

I recognized I have a problem with a loss, if I made stupid mistakes. Even if I enter a match when there is no trading spot and I recognize it, when the trade goes against me, then I can not accept the loss. I try to correct the mistake within the same situation (mostly with over staking), but this is not possible. Actually I am still a beginner in sports trading and I am still making mistakes. I have to accept that and should not force something. How can I learn from these mistakes (taking a position when there is no trading opportunity) when I make other mistakes (over staking), which cover the underlying mistake?

To accept making mistakes I must not have fear when trading. I have fear when I use too high stakes. So my stake sizes I defined in my analysis of August 2008 are way too high.

Actually, I have not found the best money management rules for me. But it is quite ironic that I write something about money management into my dos and don'ts, but I do not follow them by myself:

"Manage your risk by trading with the right size stakes.
This is very important and depends on 2 things - the price of the selection and the size of your trading bank."

My actual stake sizes does not depend on those two things, so it is time to change that. I have worked out the following table (bankroll 119.50€):

My actual bankroll is €119.50 so I do not risk more than 20% on every trade.

Stake size is only one part of risk management. Another part is taking stop losses. I think there are different kinds of stop losses:

• Stop loss during a trade
• Maximum loss limit per event
• Maximum loss limit per day

The stop loss during a trade is something you have to define before you put on a trade. This can be a price of a selection or a score during a match.

Actually, I have not a maximum limit per event or day defined, so I will do that now. This should help me to see the bigger picture and not to over stake during a match or a day.

Maximum loss limit per event: 10€ (~8% of bankroll)
Maximum loss limit per day: 25€ (~20% of bankroll)

I am not sure, if these figures are perfect, but now I have rules which should prevent me from losing more than I can accept and when I think about these figures then I can say these are amounts I can accept as a loss.

I am sure this is not my last change of stake sizes and loss limits, but now I have rules and limits, which should help me to see the bigger picture. Any comments, tips or ideas are much appreciated.

Overall stats:

September 08: -€11.57
August 08: -€7.74
July 08: +€29.10
June 08: +€25.90
May 08: +€1.36
April 08: +€25.27
March 08: +€3.08

I had also some trades during the last few days. I will update them later in the evening or tomorrow.
All the best with trading!

Cheers, Loocie