I am cutting my winnings


during this week I opened an account on Betdaq. I took the Betdaq New Free 25 Offer. From now on I have a backup exchange, if Betfair crashes.

I will also take Betdaq for my soccer trading. Very often I get better odds on Betdaq than on Betfair.

Here is an overview of my last trades:

Trading Tennis

Mathieu v Andreev -9.70
Kohlschreiber v Youzhny 11.65
Petrova v Mokh -1.50
Kiefer v Nalbandian -2.93
Ferrer v Kohlschreiber -4.82
Andreev v Simon 5.00

Total Loss Tennis: -2.30

Trading Soccer

Aachen v Rot-Weiss Ahlen 0.00
W Bremen v Leverkusen 5.34
Kaiserslautern v Osnabruck -0.90
Bochum v Hoffenheim 21.85

Total Profit Soccer: +26.29

Overall Stats:

Total Profit this month: +38.35

My tennis trading is still not very good. To many side steps. Yesterday I recognized that I cut my winnings too much.

I traded the match Andreev v Simon. Odds on Simon pre match: 1.65. Andreev lost first set 3-6 and was leading 4-1 in 2nd set. Odds on Simon 1.65-1.7. I backed Simon @1.65, because Andreev was leading with only one break in front and odds on Simon would not move very much, if Andreev wins the set. The only thing I had to do was waiting for the end of the second set. If Andreev wins the set I have to take the stop loss (estimated odds on Simon if he loses 2nd set 1.85) and if Simon wins 2nd set I would have made a nice profit. I used a stake size of 17€ to win 11€.
Let's do a little calculation:

Pre match odds on Simon: 1.65
Odds on Simon when score was 6-3, 1*-4: 1.65
Odds on Simon, if he loses 2nd set: 1.85

Scenario 1: Simon loses 2nd set

Taking stop loss at 1.85 produce an each way loss of -1.84€.

Scenario 2: Simon wins 2nd set

Profit: 11.00€

So I was risking 1.84€ to win 11.00€.

When you look at the figures above you see I made only 5.00€ because I made it too early each way.

So I was risking 1.84€ to win 5.00€. It is crazy!!

It is good that I see my mistakes, but I need to start avoiding them.

Cheers, Loocie

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