Happy Birthday

Hello everybody,

Exactly a year ago we started with our semi automated betting bot, so today it is its first anniversary.

What an exciting year it has been. The first three days produced a loss of -1.67pts, -4.25pts and -22.80pts. I was a little disappointed then, but I stuck to it and the next two days produced a profit of 2.25pts and 55.33pts.

There have been good days and also not that good days, but right now with all the experience I got during the year those bad periods does not affect my mood anymore.

Let’s have a look at the stats of the first year:

Total PL 2,230.94pts
Total days 297
Days in Profit 176
Days in Loss 121
Max daily Profit 73.58pts
Max daily Loss -43.50pts
Avg PL per Day 7.51pts

The most challenging part of the year was the bank building process. From 05/29/2010 to 08/02/2010 (60 days!) we only managed to make 7.74 pts. We checked again and again our software and luckily we could identify a bug and solve it.
This really helped, so August 2010 produced a total profit of 305.59pts.
I do not want to have another bank building process anymore. Building a decent betting bank requires a lot of discipline and patience. I think this is the most challenging part for every beginner of professional betting or trading when starting with a small bank. If you lose five quid you might think that is not that much, but percentage wise (if it is 1% of your betting bank) it can be costly. If you lose 5 quid of your bank of 500 quid's – no problem. If your bank is 5000 quid’s you will lose 50 quid’s which might be a problem. Therefore I am always thinking in points rather than in Euro.
Tracking your betting or trading results helps you to stay focused. I am lucky, because I do not have to track my results manually, it is done by the software automatically, but having a look at the graph of the betting bank on a daily basis helps a lot to stay focused.

So what to expect from the next year? I will be really pleased to produce the same profit again. No chase, no run for random numbers and goals, just making profit. It will be interesting to see how the performance will be from today until 08/02/2011, because the bug is eliminated and I am pretty sure the results for this period in 2011 will be much better than in 2010.

Another important thing I need to mention is ‘motivation’. I stay motivated by listening to certain music when the profit comes in. So when I had a really good day I always enjoy those two songs:

 

I start the day always with this one:

I think this technique comes from Neuro-linguistic programming and is called “Anchoring”. Give it a try.

That’s it for now.
I now I promised you a report about the trading seminar a few weeks ago in Manchester. You will get it, but not today ;-)

Cheers, Loocie

Summary August 2010

Hello,

Today I will give a small update about how I am progressing at the moment.
Currently I have not much time to write in detail about my betting, because I have a lot to do at work.
However, I am still progressing with the semi automated version of HorstBecker. Finding the bug I mention earlier was really helpful.

August produced a total profit of 305.59 points!! This was the first month where I made more money from betting than money I get from work.
A few days ago I also checked the source code of the full automated version of HorstBecker and the bug was also present. I fixed that, but we need to wait for end of September to see if this will improve results or not.

I am also still working on the next section of the series “Creating A Betfair Bot With C#”. It is not yet finished, but hopefully I will get some time to finish work on that.

That’s it so far.

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis of April 2010

Hello,

it has been quiet during the last few weeks. I did not write anything about my trading, because at the moment I do not have any interesting stuff to say and I do not want to repeat the same again and again.

However, I traded some sports events, so let’s have a look how I did:

Horse Racing: -€84.54
Worst month for the lay selections so far. I decided to stop it for a while. I will restart the selections again, but have not yet decided when to do that.

Motor Sport: -€11.00
Just a small bet on the winner market of the China Grand Prix, which did not work out. I am really sad about the new rules of the season, because now there is not much activity in the fastest lap market like last season. Maybe I have to skip this sport.

Soccer: –€21.93
Currently I am testing a few ideas with small stakes, so nothing to worry about.

Tennis: €67.97
I love trading tennis and I hate trading tennis. Will it every work for me?
I don’t know how much I wrote about trading this sport, but maybe it was way too much.
After the first down swing of the tennis trading in April I took a break and tried to erase all of my “knowledge” and of course all of my prejudices about the sport and about the odds movement. Then I tried to trade the matches with intuition. That means I used various stake sizes, depending on how confident I was about the trade. I also placed some bets based on value. The value investing concept is simple: Just place a bet or start a trade if the odds are wrong. Therefore you have to deal with losing runs, but that is just a matter of money management. The problem with the concept of value investing is how to estimate the true value of a bet. On long term your results will tell you, if your selections offered value or not.

Total P&L:  -€49.50

Another month of learning the hard way. The funny thing is I already wrote about those issues before, but it is quiet different to know the facts and to be aware of them.
I know the facts, now I need to be aware of them.

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis of March 2010

Hello,

same procedure as every month. Here is an overview how I did:

Personal Trades

Football: €14.21
I traded the Correct Score market a few times. There is much potential in this market, but I need to be more selective with the matches I trade on. I was well in profit, but then I got a little too confident and traded too many matches and gave much profit away. Being selective is the key. That is a huge task for me for the next month.

Horse Racing: €35.37
A solid month for the manual lay selections. Was a little disappointing to finish the month with a losing selection, but it was just a question of time to hit a winner.
I am now doing the manual lay selections for more than a year and I am very confident with it.

Motor Sport: -€48.99
I burned my fingers during the first two races of the new Formula 1 season. Trading the fastest lap market seems to be totally different with the rules. There is less activity in the market compared to last season.
I tried a few new ideas, but it did not work out.

Tennis: €12.00
At least I have green figures on the tennis trading front. In March I tried to observe myself during the trades. I think my problem with trading in general is, that I do not have a specified goal. I need some kind of gratification for having a good trading month. Currently I am still on my bank building period, so the only thing I know for the end of the month is that I will have a bigger trading bank for the next month, but that is not a gratification for me. Therefore I am sometimes forcing trades to push the bank to a higher level. At the moment I am far away from a professional approach.

Total P&L:  €12.59

Another disappointing month, but at least one with green figures. During the month I had a profit of €120.00 but then I forced too many trades and gave much of the profit away.
Therefore I will set a profit target of €100.00 for April.

Betting Bots

HorstBecker
March produced a profit of 74 points, but still in simulation mode. We placed the bets for the Cheltenham Festival and got a decent profit of about 40 points.

Today the bot will place its selection live on Betfair again. Let’s hope for another solid and profitable month.

LaylaCheval
March produced a total loss of 50 points which is really disappointing. We had some technical problems with the Betfair API again and the so called BET_IN_PROGRESS issue. It is still not solved, so we missed some profitable selections. We also decided to stop the bot on the Cheltenham Festival after the bot laid a high priced winner. Was a really bad decision. Overall the Cheltenham Festival produced a small profit of a few points, but only on simulation mode. There was also a profitable Sunday, but Betfair did not work on that day and we missed another profitable day. If everything would have been fine the bot still would have produced a loss of 5 points in March.

That’s it for now. Will post later possible lay selections.

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis of February 2010

Hi,

the second month of the new year is already over. Let’s have a look how I did:

Personal Trades

Tennis: -€47.27
 
Total Trades 53
Win Trades 21
Loss Trades 29
Scratched 3
Strike Rate 42.00%
Average Win +10.80
Average Loss: –9.45

The disappointing run in tennis continues. I am really annoyed about my tennis trading.
When I have a look at the numbers I must admit that the absolute value for average win and average loss can not produce a satisfied long term profit. Even a 50% strike rate will not produce a decent enough profit. The absolute value of my average loss should be much lower than the absolute value of my average win.
It is hard to say, but it seems that my way of trading tennis does not work.
The problem with my way of tennis trading is that I can not trade every match. More often than not I am just watching the matches without getting involved. I am just waiting for situations where I think the price is wrong, but when the price is wrong it does not mean that the player I backed will win because of the wrong price.
I am in my third year of trading tennis, but I am not yet progressing as desired. Skipping the tennis is an opportunity I am thinking about.

Horse Racing: €33.23
Only four selections for the month, but all of them lost, so I have another pleasant month on the laying front. I hope the bad weather is behind us and I hope I will have more selections during the next few months.
Last year at the end of March I started my horse laying selections so very soon we will have their first “birthday”. I will give a few more details about the selections in another post at the end of March.

Winter Sports: €4.75
I laid Lindsey Vonn @ 1.1 with a fiver on the Ladies Super G : Gold Medal Winner market. The track was difficult with lots of runners struggled, Lindsey too.

Total P&L:  -€9.29

February 2010 has been the second negative month in a row. I am not too worried about the amount I lost, but more about the tennis trading. I have not yet decided what I will do with it.

Betting Bots

HorstBecker
It was running the whole month in simulation mode and made a small profit of 7 points.

LaylaCheval
In February it made a total profit of 42 points. We started putting money on the selections at 10th February and made since then a small profit of 7 points.

All in all, nothing to be too euphoric about, but there are signs that the bad run (and weather) might be over.

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis of January 2010

Hello,

this month was not the best one for me. “Disappointing” describes it the best.

American Football: -€34.72
Hmm…What to say about it? My strategy did not work the way I expected it. Maybe I am looking for too big odds movements. Need to do some more research.

Basketball: €1.88
Did not traded really Basketball. This figure just came from developing the bet matching for a bot.

Horse Racing: –€17.70
I started well with three profitable selections in a row at decent odds. Then two losers turned the month into a negative one. This can happen, so I am not too worried about. There will be better months for sure.

Soccer: -€1.39
I had two bets this weekend: B Munich v Mainz on Over/Under 2.5 goals market and Stuttgart v Dortmund : Match Odds market. The later one lost, so I made a small loss.

Tennis: –€14.52
The first month of a tennis season is always a tough one. There is really much uncertainty about the players form in the first few matches.
One of my main goals during 2010 is to become more professional in the way I am trading. I kept record of my trades and if you have a look at the numbers, it is not that bad, except the strike rate:

Total Trades 35
Win Trades 15
Loss Trades 19
Scratched 1
Strike Rate 44.52%
Average Win +10.24
Average Loss: –8.85

Generally I have a strike rate of 55-60% of profitable trades. This month I was not patient enough. I entered too many matches. Here is a graph of the progress of the P&L figure:
 

There is much space for improvement.

January Total P&L:  -€66.45
A disappointing month and a disappointing start into the trading year 2010, but this is just a bigger motivation for me for the next months. I know I can do better and I am sure I will.

What about the betting bots?
They are currently running in simulation mode and it seems the horrible weeks are behind us. I need to apply rules to protect the bank roll from those bad runs with daily maximum allowed losses. This might reduce the possible profit, but it also helps to stay in the game.

This week Betfair’s API service was totally crap. Today the API service was down again for sixth time this week alone.

LaylaCheval could have produced a profit of 50 points this month with the new filters and rules. I will work out the past results with the new filter and if this works I will give it another try.

HorstBecker is not yet performing as expected. I have not yet done all the research and analysing of the results with new filters and rules. So still a lot of work in front.

That’s it so far.

Cheers, Loocie

Review and Preview

My 2nd year of trading on sports is over. Let’s have a look how I did:

Review of 2009

Tennis: 
I started well with a pleasant January profit of +€32.77 and a fantastic February profit of +€129.74, but then I totally lost my confidence. I had a couple of losses where I made some stupid mistakes. My staking was also too aggressive and I had too big liabilities during the trades. I cut my winnings and let my losses run.
Then I took some time off from trading tennis and late in the season I decided to start again with €20.00 stakes. I changed my style of trading to just focussing on laying low odds which was really an improvement. I did not track my results as I should, so I can not give an exact overview how I did. Tracking results will be an issue for 2010.

Soccer:
Did not trade that much soccer, but had a few bets and trades. I tried to use Soccer Mystic and trade soccer matches, but that will not work for me. It is too boring to watch a match and the odds closely. I think I will keep having an eye on pre match odds and if I can identify a good value (like Germany v Russia) I will put in a bet. I did not track my soccer bets, but I am in a small profit.

American Football:
I was not able to trade many matches, because my Pay TV subscription expired. I started to follow Stock Lemon’s picks. I was a little lucky, because I missed some losing bets. According to a stake of €10.00 I made +€56.66.

Formula 1:
This sport was my main income source for this year. I made +€307.08 during the year. Mainly I focussed on the fastest lap market, but I also had a look at some other markets, too. There is so much value in so many markets. I learned from my mistakes of 2008, where I could not accept a loss and put more and more into a bad position.

Horse Racing:
Three years ago I started to select some false favourites on horse racing. I only paper traded those selections and it did not pay off. So I stopped it.
This year I had a look at the excel file I created in the past with the past selections and I applied some filters. If I was more patient the stats suggested a decent profit.
At the end of March I started again paper trading my lay selections with a far more patient approach. At the end of May I started putting money on the selections with a bank of €100. I started with a maximum liability of 5% of the bank. During the last two months I raised my liability to 10% of the bank. I doubled the bank in eight months, which is a pleasant result.

Betting Bots:
I was always fascinated by having a betting bot. I started developing my first Betfair API application in June 2008. I wanted to develop a mobile Betfair application for Windows Mobile devices.
In June 2009 I started to develop a betting bot.
Currently we are running two bots for horse racing. One for backing and one for laying.
It is quite disappointing that both started really well, but now they are performing not as expected. I double checked past results and source code of both bots. There is no bug. The bots are working reliable and they do the work correctly. Only the results are quite different to the past results. 
It might be possible that in the near future both bots will run in simulation mode again.
Currently I am working on the next betting bot. I have still many ideas I want to automate. Once a bot is created it just need to run and track data in simulation mode. 2010 will be exciting!

Conclusion:

The Numbers:

Starting bank: €250.00
Current bank: €825.56 (+230.22%) 

Biggest single profit: +€79.11
Biggest single loss: –€50.47

The Staking:

Staking has been always an issue for me. I tried to adapt staking rules from other traders, but this did not work for me.
Generally, I am a fan of the KISS principle: Keep It Simple and Stupid!
That’s what I did with my style of trading this year. No complex strategy, just lay low.

Patience:

With my horse laying selections I learned that it is better to stay away, if there is no good opportunity. If you can avoid losing money, you will win more money. Forcing trades and getting in too often and too early was a main problem during the last two years.

Tracking Results:

I have not been good in tracking results, especially in tennis. That’s also a reason why I can not write down my complete stats for tennis trading.

Setting Goals:

At the start of 2009 I set myself a goal to reach a net profit of €1000.00. Did not reach this goal. I have learned this year, that it is not about chasing numbers.
It is about getting a professional approach:

• Apply always your trading rules
• Track your results
• Learn from mistakes (and avoid doing them again)

Preview of 2010

I will split this section into two parts: Personal Trades and Betting Bots.

Personal Trades

In 2010 I will focus on Tennis, Formula 1, Horse Racing and American Football.

Staking:

Tennis:
I will keep it as simple as possible: I will trade with a fixed staking and I will start with a stake size of €50.00.

Formula 1:
Stake size will be €20.00 to €50.00, the same like 2009.

American Football:
Stake size will be €20.00.

Horse Racing:
Will continue with a liability of 10% of the horse racing bank.

What about setting goals?
Chasing random numbers will not work for me, so I will not set me a goal to reach a certain amount of profit.
I want to turn my trading into a more professional one, so I want to concentrate on trading behaviour (applying all my rules, patience, etc) and tracking all my results.

Betting Bots

I have several ideas for automated betting. Along with the horse racing bots I am currently working on a bot for American Sports.

The goal for 2010 is to create a least one reliable bot and to create a solid income stream from it. I think in a few month I will have a couple of bots doing their work. Maybe some of them will only run in simulation mode for a while. There is no need to rush. Sooner or later they will do their work once all the parameters are found.

Changes to the Blog

I will also apply some changes to the blog. I will outsource the horse laying selections to a newsletter tool where people can subscribe/unsubscribe to. Currently I am still looking for a comfortable piece of software.

That’s it so far.
I wish all of you a prosperous new year!

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis Of October 2009

Hello,

another month is over, so it is time to review the results of the month.

American Football: -€7.64
The selections of Stock Lemon did not perform that good in October. Overall there is still a profit, so no problem with that.

Football: €20.90
Just one bet on Germany versus Russia. Great value and nice profit.

Horse Racing: €19.60
The lay selections had a tough month. Two losers at the start of the month. Then we had 10 days without selections, but the patience paid off. Five winnings in the row secured the profit. I used a fixed liability staking of €15.00 per selection.

Motor Sport: -€5.79
Just two races in October: Brazil and Japan. It was not possible to trade the fastest lap market, because there was no liquidity. Tried to discover other markets, which ended in a small loss.

Tennis: €53.35
A really decent result so far. Could have been better, but yesterday I lost on V Williams v Jankovic. This was a great lesson, because I saw what was my mistake: I tried to trade momentum. Trading momentum in WTA tennis matches is the worst thing you could do. Just keep patient and lay low. That’s what I did the whole month except the match yesterday.

Total P&L: €80.42
A nice profit for the month. Currently my maximum stake size is €20.00. Raising stake size is definitely a task for the next year. That’s something I struggled with this year.

The tennis season is nearly over, so I will spend more time on developing the trading bots.
HorstBecker is a bot I developed, which bets on horses. At the moment it is running in simulation mode and showing promising results.
LaylaCheval is a bot, which lays horses. It is also running in simulation mode, but I need to do more coding, to make it easier to get the daily profit/loss figure.
At the moment Muxor is doing all the daily reporting manually, which is a lot of work.
The goal is to have two bots, one for backing, one for laying, which do their work fully automated.

That’s it so far. Will post later possible lay selections.

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis Of September 2009

Hello,

During the last few weeks I did not write that much about my trading in detail. The month is almost over, so I will take the time to give you an update how I was doing.
Here is an overview of this months result sorted by sport:

American Football: €27.14
I am investing some money in the free selections of Stock Lemon. There are some good free tipsters outside, so why do not participate?

Horse Racing: €15.35
That’s the profit of my horse lay selections. Not much profit, but still a profit. This month I hade just a few selections.

Motor Sport: €42.14  
Trading Formula 1 races is working really well for me. I am discovering more and more markets of this sport. There is so much value on it. Fantastic!

Tennis: €39.07
During the last few months I struggled a little when trading tennis matches. I think it was a good example of over trading and taking too early too much risk. I tried to be successful in every match. But that is not possible. Losing money in some markets is not the problem. It is not about making profit in as much markets as you can. You just need to cover your losses with your winnings.

Total P&L: €123.70

A good result for me. It shows me that I am on the right track with my new view of trading.

I spent my time not only on trading on sports events. I also did some work on the betting bot front. I already created a bot for another bot for laying horses. Therefore I am also using websites like Timeform. Today I found an interesting race from yesterday:

 
Amenable won with a BSP of 320!! Amazing! The favourite traded in play at 1.06 and lost.
The bot is doing the selections automatically based on certain criteria, but at the moment I am doing the summary of every single race manually via Timeform. The bot selected more than 1000 horses to lay during the last 3 or 4 weeks, so you guess it also lays at higher odds. Therefore I need to collect more data, to see if it might be profitable or not.

I also worked on my Betfair API framework which is in a good progress. Everything is working fine at the moment, but it is a lot of work.

I will keep you updated!

Cheers, Loocie

Status Quo

Hello everybody,

Today I want to share some thoughts about the way I am thinking about trading sport events.

During the last six month my view of trading has changed significantly. When I started trading on sport events I was fascinated to have the opportunity to be all green even if the sport event is still in progress. It was also my main goal, to be green when the sport event is still in progress. 
During the last months I recognized that this “idea” is not that bad, but it does not raised my profits. Too often I cut my losses too early or I got out of a trade too early, which cut my potential winnings. I also thought trading is the only way to make profit.

My horses lay selections showed me, that it is possible to make money with pure punting. It is all about value. Yes, many of you now will think “That’s what everybody is talking about”. But it is important to understand the concept of getting value on your selections you place bets on.

Making profit on trading and betting on sport events is not about posting all green screenshots. It is about the long term view. A single selection does not decides if you are making profit or loss. I am not talking about the new holy grail on trading or betting, but I am getting more and more aware of value betting and long term view.

If you are a regular reader you will have noticed that I am not writing in detail about my tennis results anymore. At the beginning of my blog I wrote many blog entries about identifying good entry points and exit points, also about the bad ones. I wrote about looking at match statistics and how you can take advantage of that. I stopped writing about my tennis trading in detail, because I do not want to bore you with the same again and again.

During this year I struggled a little with my tennis trading. At the moment I am break even. There is one thing I have really problems with: When I watch a tennis match (via TV or scoreboard) from the beginning to the end I can not identify good trading opportunities. But if I turn on the laptop and look at the scoreboard and the odds while the match is already in progress I can tell you easily if a price of a player is too low or too high in a current match situation.
I recognized this ability when analysing my style of trading the fastest lap market on Formula 1 races. I am doing the same there. I know which odds are right and wrong and place bets depending on what is going on. And I am placing many bets during a race. I do not have problems to lay high odds of 6.0. I am feeling confident about making the right decision.
When I trade tennis matches from the start I often can not trust my thoughts about the possibility of a comeback of a player when he is a set or a break down, because the odds move steady.

I know I need to change my view of trading an betting. It should be a view of investing. Investing on the outcome of sport events. The tennis season is on its final stages. I do not expect that much improvement, but I want to have a look on the matches with the view of an investor. Taking snapshots from matches from time to time and invest in the outcome depending on the situation, that means looking for value odds in play.

Another reason to change my style of trading on sport events is lack of time. I am also working on various ideas about automated and semi automated betting and trading.
Currently I am working on a Betfair API framework for creating bots for some strategies I am investigating at the moment. The framework is in its final stages.
If this work is done I will start to create a bot for doing the baseball selections for me. Most of the money comes in a few minutes before the matches start and mostly this is during night in Europe. So I need someone doing the work for me every night.
I also have some more ideas about the horses. Therefore I will create some software doing some work on data mining and bets placing.

Another promising project I have started is a trading system for over/under markets in football. At the moment I am tracking my trades via Excel, but I am sure I will start this with real money soon.

The goal for the rest of 2009 for me is to progress on the software front and get one of the bots running to post some nice green figures on the blog. Hopefully the hard work will pay off.

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis Of July 2009

Hello,

July is over, so I will do my monthly review about my betting and trading. Here is an overview of my results of July sorted by sports:

Horse Racing: EUR9.73
Motor Sport: EUR59.93
Tennis: EUR2.96  

Total P&L: EUR72.62

The horse racing lay selections produced a small profit and I am happy with that. I had 12 selections with 10 winners and 2 losers. One winning selection does not count as a selection, because there was not enough money traded below 5.0, so I had 11 selections with 9 winning selections and 2 losing selections which produced a strike rate of 81%. Average winning lay odds was 4.14 which is a little higher than the average winning lay odds of the past months.

Trading Formula 1 was really nice this month. There were also difficult races, but I kept cool and stayed away. That might be a key for success. There is no need to trade as many events as possible, a mistake I made in the past too often.

Trading tennis did not worked really good. I only got involved in a few matches, so I am not worried about the small profit. There were two weeks with just small tournaments and I skipped those events.

July 2009 was the first month without conducting experiments. In past, too often I was wasting money because I tried out some strategies or ideas with money.

My time – profit ratio this month was really good. I avoided to sit in front of the computer too often, without getting involved.

That’s it for now. Later I will post possible lay selections.

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis Of March 2009

Hi,

March is over, so it is time to do the analysis. If you follow the blog regularly you have even noticed, that March was an awful trading month for me. It was the first time I took a timeout from trading, because my mindset was completely broken.

Let’s have a look at the result of March: I just wanted to watch some horse races via Betfair Live Video, so I had to place a bet to have the pictures available.

Trading tennis started really well with a huge profit on set betting. Trading during the first week of Indian Wells was not that easy. I had many scratched trades, because liquidity was not good enough and the scoreboard was not reliable. This first week was a good test for my discipline in trading, but sadly the test failed. If there is no opportunity, then stay away.

When trading tennis in March sometimes I was not totally focused on the matches. I did several other things too, so my concentration was not completely focused on the matches. That’s something I can easily avoid, so no MSN or Skype anymore when trading.

The only good decision I made during March was to take timeout. I little bit too late I think, but I made this decision and I am pretty sure this helped me to avoid a bigger loss.

Let’s have a look at the new stake sizes: For the first few trades I will use half of my stake sizes to get my confidence back.

The question is how to avoid such a losing run in the future? Maybe it is just experience. Hopefully this month’s experience help me to take a timeout earlier, if I have a similar situation in the future or it helps me to avoid such a losing run caused by impatience, because I have experienced that forcing trades and losing your discipline minimizes your trading bank and more important it destroys your self confidence.

Overall stats:
Year 2008: +€156.48
January 2009: +€28.39
February 2009: +€111.52
March 2009: –€22.55

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis Of February 2009

Hi,

another month is over, so again it is time to analyse my trades. In February I traded on soccer and tennis.

Trading Soccer
The screenshot above is from my trading excel sheet. Since July 2009 I track as much data as possible. Keeping records help you really much, because you can have a look at trades from the past with a more objective view.

Total loss trading soccer: –18.22

Trading Tennis
number of markets I traded: 30
number of wins: 18
number of losses: 9
scratched trades: 3

number of wins > 3€: 14 
number of losses > 3€: 8

total win: +204.90
total loss: –75.16
total pl: +129.74

average win: +11.38
average loss: –8.35
average pl: +4.32

win rate: 67%
max win: +27.48
max loss: –17.14

I am still making mistakes, when trading, but I recognize them early and stick to my rules. My maximum loss was –17.14, which was 6.16% of my trading bank (€278.39). The stats above indicates I am on the right path.

Total profit trading tennis: +129.74

What is the conclusion of February 2009?
Trading soccer was not very successful, but trading tennis worked really good. At the start of 2009 I set myself a goal to achieve €1000 profit on trading. I will stop doing experiments with other sports than tennis. If I stick to my rules, it would be much easier to achieve this goal and if I achieved that goal, I will setup a 2nd small trading bank for discovering other markets. I am really interested in trading snooker, darts, golf and basketball.
I made +€111.52 (increase of 40% of my trading bank) during February 2009, so this is the best performance since I started the blog.

My new stake sizes:


Using stakes like €77 instead of €80 or €55 instead of 50€ can give you a small advantage, because you can type these figures faster. It is not a big advantage, but sometimes this can be the difference to get matched or not. It is also easier to the remember figures like this.

Overall stats:
Year 2008: +€156.48
January 2009: +€28.39
February 2009: +€111.52

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis Of January 2009

Hi,

January is over now, so it is time to do the analysis.
Here is an overview of the profit per sport:

• Tennis: +€32.77
• American Football: +€1.39
• Winter Sports: -€5.77

I had two trades, where I made big mistakes:

Tennis - Wozniacki v Dokic:
I did not see the bigger pictures, when the trade went against me. I could not accept the loss and lost more than I could afford.

Winter Sports – Men’s 10 km Sprint: Winner - Fastest Time:
I traded with too high stakes in a market, I was not very comfortable with and I did not take a stop loss, when necessary.

I am a little disappointed about the small profit I made during January, but when you do beginner’s mistakes and lose the view for the bigger picture, then you do not deserve it to make more money.

Not a great start into the trading year, but still a profit. I need to concentrate on my exit strategy and on the bigger picture during a single trade.

My new stake sizes:


Overall stats:
Year 2008: +€156.48
January 2009: +€28.39

Cheers, Loocie

Taking A Stop Loss Correctly

Hello,


I am still recovering from my shingles and it will take some more time, than I expected. I am not trading these days, which is really disappointing during a grand slam tournament.

However, I take the time to rethink about my first trades of the year. The most annoying trade for me was in the match Wozniacki v Dokic. I backed Wozniacki @1.32 during the 2nd set when score was 3-1 for Dokic. I expected odds on Wozniacki @1.45, if she loses the 2nd set, but the odds drifted to 1.75, when she lost the 2nd set 1-6.

The first major mistake I made was not defining a stop loss mark, when I backed Wozniacki. I agree with many other traders, you need to know your stop loss mark when you put on a trade. So the question is:
How to define your stop loss mark correctly?

My trading is based on the knowledge about odds moving. When I put on a trade I can not say who will win the match, but I can say if there is a value for me of odds movement, e.g. in certain situations I know the odds will move only a few ticks lower, but there is a high probability that the odds will raise. If I can identify such a situation I will put on a trade, because more often than not the odds will move in my favour and on a long term view the losses will be smaller than my winnings.

During the match Wozniacki v Dokic I had two (maybe more) options to define my stop loss mark:

1. I take the loss, if Wozniacki loses the 2nd set.
2. I take the loss, if the odds on Wozniacki drift to 1.46 (because that were the odds I expected on Wozniacki, if she loses the 2nd set).

Let’s do a little calculation:

1. Back Wozniacki €50@1.32, Lay Wozniacki €37.71@1.75
   Total loss each way: –€12.28
2. Back Wozniacki €50@1.32, Lay Wozniacki €45.20@1.46
   Total loss each way: –€4.80

The total loss in the first case is very much higher, than the total loss in the 2nd case. The question now is, which method is the better one?
The odds during a tennis match can move dramatically, even in a service game. If the score in a service game is 0*-30 I think my 1st stop loss mark would be reached and I had to take the stop loss, even if the score would turn to 2-3*.

Generally I have more winning trades, than losing trades, so if I can apply a rule, that I take a stop loss, when the total loss is equal to the total possible win.
For the match Wozniacki v Dokic it means:

Back Wozniacki €50@1.32:
Total possible profit: +€16.00
Stop loss market: –€16.00, which is equal to a lay Wozniacki €34@1.94

Generally there is no need to wait until this stop loss market is reached. I think it is more a maximum loss mark. If you can identify earlier, that your trade does not pay off, you do not have to wait for the stop loss mark, you can take the red earlier. In the match Wozniacki v Dokic I should have made it each way red, when Dokic won the 2nd set and odds on Wozniacki moved to 1.75, because I have the rule not to trade during a deciding set.

What’s the conclusion for me now?

• I will define my stop loss mark before I put on a trade.
• The maximum stop loss is equal to the possible profit of the trade.

Notice:
It is important to mention that the possible profit is not the profit you would gain, if would let the trade run as a bet. I will explain this:
Very often I back the favourite, if he loses the first set, but the stats are relative equal, e.g.:

Pre match odds: Player A: 1.52, Player B: 2.9
If player B wins the first set, the odds would be:
Player A: 3.00, Player B: 1.51.
I would close the trade, if player A wins the second set and odds would move to: Player A: 1.55, Player B: 2.80.
So the possible profit would be:
Lay Player B €37@1.51,
Lay Player A €36.04@1.55
Total profit: +€17.17
So the maximum loss is –€17.17 and not –€37.00, which is the possible profit, if you let the trade run as a bet.

I am not sure, if this method is the best method to take a stop loss, but I think this method is more adjusted to a specific trade, than a static stop loss mark like a number of ticks or a defined amount of money.

Would be nice to read some comments about this issue.

All the best and stay healthy!

Cheers, Loocie

Review And Preview

Review

We started the blog in the mid of March, but I already started trading with the intention of a serious background at the beginning of the year.

I made one of the biggest mistake when starting trading and listened to others advices for backing and laying selections which cost me a lot money. The only knowledge I got from this person was that there is money to be made at betting exchanges and very often you can identify situations inplay when the price is wrong.

I started to take responsibility for the trades I put on, but I made too many mistakes. Often I only layed the winner of the first set in tennis, did not take a stop loss or forced too many trades.

In March Muxor and me started this blog with the intention to keep a diary about our trades and thoughts.

I started trading in March with a trading bank of about 100€. I only invested a bank of 100€ because I was not very confident with my trading skills.

I learned that the followings things are essential, when trading sport events:

• Research any event you plan to trade
• Apply risk management rules to protect your bank
• Track your trading results
• Always ask "What if...?" when you put on a trade

Most important is, that I learned to be more organized when trading.

Here is an overview of my progress:

I made +€156.48 with a starting bank of €100.

The profit is not the greatest, but it is a good result for me as a beginner in sports trading.

Preview

What to expect from 2009?

Most important for me is to apply all my rules I identified during 2008. I will calculate the stake sizes at the beginning of every month depending on my bank. My actual bankroll is €256.48, but I will reset it to €250 for easier calculation, so my stake sizes for January 2009 are the following:

My stop losses:

Maximum loss limit per event: 25€ (10% of bankroll)
Maximum loss limit per day: 50€ (20% of bankroll)

How to measure the trading? Good trading for me means applying all my rules, but I need to set myself a target. My target for 2009 is to produce a net profit of €1000, so at the end of 2009 my trading bank should be €1250 or higher. I will adjust my stake sizes month by month, so I think I can reach the target.

At these days tennis season has started with Exhibition Tournaments and The HopmanCup, but I will stay away from these tournaments, because I think the players will not take these matches too seriously. On Monday tennis season kicks off with a couple of tournaments in Auckland, Brisbane, Doha and Chennai, so there is no need to trade these training events. It will be a long season.

All the best!

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis Of December 2008

Hello,

the trading month is over, so it is time to do my analysis. Today I will keep it a short blog entry:

This month's loss was a result of impatience and taking short positions. I traded too many Soccer matches. I had two matches where I could not accept a loss and entered in other markets (over/under) to cover the loss from match odds markets. It was wasting time and wasting money.

Overall stats:

December 08: -€17.37
November 08: +€70.10
October 08: +€38.35
September 08: -€11.57
August 08: -€7.74
July 08: +€29.10
June 08: +€25.90
May 08: +€1.36
April 08: +€25.27
March 08: +€3.08

Total profit 2008: +€156.48

That's it for now.

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis Of November 2008

Hello,

as mentioned in the last blog entry November 2008 was my best trading month so far. Here is my analysis:

Trading Tennis

number of matches I traded: 9
number of wins: 8
number of losses: 1
scratched trades: 0

number of wins > 3€: 5
number of losses > 3€: 1

total win: +37.15
total loss: -7.46 
total pl: +29.69

average win: +4.64
average loss: -7.46
average pl: +3.30

win rate: 89%
max win: +11.83
max loss: -7.46

Firstly, a good result. I knew that the tennis player are tired after a long season, so I picked the matches I traded on very carefully.

The conclusion of this month is: Less is more. There is no need to trade as much matches as possible.

Trading Soccer

number of matches I traded: 16
number of wins: 9
number of losses: 3
scratched trades: 4

number of wins > 3€: 5
number of losses > 3€: 1

total win: +27.31
total loss: -15.26 
total pl: +12.05

average win: +3.03
average loss: -5.09
average pl: +0.75

win rate: 75%
max win: +6.38
max loss: -11.42

Trading Soccer started with a bigger loss of -11.42. I am not sure, if this big loss was avoidable.

Actually I am trading Soccer with a stake size of 10€, but I will raise them in the next year, if my confidence in trading Soccer is a little bit higher than today.

Trading Other Sports

American Football: +22.48
Handball: +5.56
Motor Sport: +0.37

Every sport I traded in November 2008 ended in a profit, which is a really good result for a beginner in sports trading.

My actual trading bank is €264.65, so it is time to readjust my stake sizes. I do not expect very much trading during December 2008, so I will readjust my stake sizes at the start of 2009. I will also set goals for the trading year 2009, but I will do this after a complete review and analysis of the trading year 2008.

Overall stats:

November 08: +€70.10
October 08: +€38.35
September 08: -€11.57
August 08: -€7.74
July 08: +€29.10
June 08: +€25.90
May 08: +€1.36
April 08: +€25.27
March 08: +€3.08

That's it for now. I expect to trade only a few soccer matches and NFL games in December 2008 and I will only update this blog on a weekly basis.

I wish you all the best when trading!

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis Of October 2008

Hello,

another month is over, so it is time to analyse the trades of the last month.

Trading Tennis

number of matches I traded: 64
number of wins: 38
number of losses: 25
scratched trades: 1

number of wins > 3€: 21
number of losses > 3€: 18

total win: +140.10
total loss: -143.89 
total pl: -3.79

average win: +3.69
average loss: -5.76
average pl: -0.06

win rate: 60%
max win: +11.64
max loss: -18.05

What was bad this month:

As mentioned in the last blog entry I am cutting my winnings more than my losses.

I traded too many matches. I have certain situations where I put on a trade depending on the score, but in future I have to consider the odds at the given situation too.

What was good this month:

The new money management rules which I established after my analysis of September 2008 helped my to trade without fear.

Mostly I took stop losses when necessary.

I planned every match I traded.

Trading Soccer

number of matches I traded: 14
number of wins: 7
number of losses: 5
scratched trades: 2

number of wins > 3€: 6
number of losses > 3€: 2

total win: +42.28
total loss: -10.71
total pl: +31.57

average win: +6.04
average loss: -2.14
average pl: +2.26

win rate: 58%
max win: +21.85
max loss: -4.26

Most of the profit came from the match Bochum v Hoffenheim. During this month I was very patient when trading soccer. I know there are only a few key events during a match so it is essential to keep a clear head and being patient.

Trading other sports

Formula 1 +4.19
NFL -6.96

Overall stats:

October 08: +€38.35
September 08: -€11.57
August 08: -€7.74
July 08: +€29.10
June 08: +€25.90
May 08: +€1.36
April 08: +€25.27
March 08: +€3.08

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis of September 2008

Hello,

today I will do my analysis of September 2008:

Trading Tennis

number of matches I traded: 37
number of wins: 18
number of losses: 19
scratched trades: 0

number of wins > 3€: 10 
number of losses > 3€: 7

total win: +74.68
total loss: -69.96
total pl: +4.72 

average win: +4.15
average loss: -3.68
average pl: +0.13 

win rate: 49%
max win: +11.15
max loss: -13.81

Again not a result I am very happy with. Not because of the small win, but more because I made so many mistakes:

I did not do any research before a match. I used different stake sizes and I made stupid decisions and forced trades.

So, how to change this:

Actually, I have created a cheat sheet for trading tennis with all my rules and dos and don'ts, so I can have a look at this sheet when trading tennis.

During this month I did not use the same liability in every match and this makes it difficult to measure my trading.

Trading soccer

number of matches I traded: 15
number of wins: 9
number of losses: 6
scratched trades: 0

number of wins > 3€: 6 
number of losses > 3€: 0

total win: +27.16
total loss: -10.99
total pl: +16.17 

average win: +3.02
average loss: -1.83
average pl: +1.08 

win rate: 60%
max win: +5.39
max loss: -3.00

A good result, but not perfect. I do not mean the profit, but rather the way I traded soccer. I had some wrong trades and made some avoidable mistakes.

I know there are only two or three key events during a soccer match, so if you are not prepared and you force a trade, you can lose your money very soon.

That is the problem I have sometimes when trading tennis: I know there can be many swings and flip flops, so I am too often hoping for the next swing in my favour.

Trading Formula 1

This month I learned it the hard way what can happen, if you do not take a stop loss.

The loss during the Italian Grand Prix was too massive to recover it with other trades. I was not focused on the bigger picture, I was focused on the actual battle I had.

total loss trading Formula 1: -€46.47

Trading NFL

I traded 4 matches and scratched two of them. With only 4 matches it is not 100% reliable how I can trade this sport, so I have to wait and see next month what is it about.

total profit trading NFL: +€9.91

Trading Ice Hockey

I had only one trade and made a profit. It is also not reliable. Will see, if I can trade other matches and we have to see how it will develop.

total profit trading Ice Hockey: +€4.09

Overall there is a loss in September 2008: -€11.57.

Only one trade destroyed a possible good trading result for this month. I am happy that I was able to reduce the loss, but all in all I need to learn accepting losses.

I recognized I have a problem with a loss, if I made stupid mistakes. Even if I enter a match when there is no trading spot and I recognize it, when the trade goes against me, then I can not accept the loss. I try to correct the mistake within the same situation (mostly with over staking), but this is not possible. Actually I am still a beginner in sports trading and I am still making mistakes. I have to accept that and should not force something. How can I learn from these mistakes (taking a position when there is no trading opportunity) when I make other mistakes (over staking), which cover the underlying mistake?

To accept making mistakes I must not have fear when trading. I have fear when I use too high stakes. So my stake sizes I defined in my analysis of August 2008 are way too high.

Actually, I have not found the best money management rules for me. But it is quite ironic that I write something about money management into my dos and don'ts, but I do not follow them by myself:

"Manage your risk by trading with the right size stakes.
This is very important and depends on 2 things - the price of the selection and the size of your trading bank."

My actual stake sizes does not depend on those two things, so it is time to change that. I have worked out the following table (bankroll 119.50€):

My actual bankroll is €119.50 so I do not risk more than 20% on every trade.

Stake size is only one part of risk management. Another part is taking stop losses. I think there are different kinds of stop losses:

• Stop loss during a trade
• Maximum loss limit per event
• Maximum loss limit per day

The stop loss during a trade is something you have to define before you put on a trade. This can be a price of a selection or a score during a match.

Actually, I have not a maximum limit per event or day defined, so I will do that now. This should help me to see the bigger picture and not to over stake during a match or a day.

Maximum loss limit per event: 10€ (~8% of bankroll)
Maximum loss limit per day: 25€ (~20% of bankroll)

I am not sure, if these figures are perfect, but now I have rules which should prevent me from losing more than I can accept and when I think about these figures then I can say these are amounts I can accept as a loss.

I am sure this is not my last change of stake sizes and loss limits, but now I have rules and limits, which should help me to see the bigger picture. Any comments, tips or ideas are much appreciated.

Overall stats:

September 08: -€11.57
August 08: -€7.74
July 08: +€29.10
June 08: +€25.90
May 08: +€1.36
April 08: +€25.27
March 08: +€3.08

I had also some trades during the last few days. I will update them later in the evening or tomorrow.
All the best with trading!

Cheers, Loocie