Analysis of April 2010

Hello,

it has been quiet during the last few weeks. I did not write anything about my trading, because at the moment I do not have any interesting stuff to say and I do not want to repeat the same again and again.

However, I traded some sports events, so let’s have a look how I did:

Horse Racing: -€84.54
Worst month for the lay selections so far. I decided to stop it for a while. I will restart the selections again, but have not yet decided when to do that.

Motor Sport: -€11.00
Just a small bet on the winner market of the China Grand Prix, which did not work out. I am really sad about the new rules of the season, because now there is not much activity in the fastest lap market like last season. Maybe I have to skip this sport.

Soccer: –€21.93
Currently I am testing a few ideas with small stakes, so nothing to worry about.

Tennis: €67.97
I love trading tennis and I hate trading tennis. Will it every work for me?
I don’t know how much I wrote about trading this sport, but maybe it was way too much.
After the first down swing of the tennis trading in April I took a break and tried to erase all of my “knowledge” and of course all of my prejudices about the sport and about the odds movement. Then I tried to trade the matches with intuition. That means I used various stake sizes, depending on how confident I was about the trade. I also placed some bets based on value. The value investing concept is simple: Just place a bet or start a trade if the odds are wrong. Therefore you have to deal with losing runs, but that is just a matter of money management. The problem with the concept of value investing is how to estimate the true value of a bet. On long term your results will tell you, if your selections offered value or not.

Total P&L:  -€49.50

Another month of learning the hard way. The funny thing is I already wrote about those issues before, but it is quiet different to know the facts and to be aware of them.
I know the facts, now I need to be aware of them.

Cheers, Loocie