Analysis of April 2010

Hello,

it has been quiet during the last few weeks. I did not write anything about my trading, because at the moment I do not have any interesting stuff to say and I do not want to repeat the same again and again.

However, I traded some sports events, so let’s have a look how I did:

Horse Racing: -€84.54
Worst month for the lay selections so far. I decided to stop it for a while. I will restart the selections again, but have not yet decided when to do that.

Motor Sport: -€11.00
Just a small bet on the winner market of the China Grand Prix, which did not work out. I am really sad about the new rules of the season, because now there is not much activity in the fastest lap market like last season. Maybe I have to skip this sport.

Soccer: –€21.93
Currently I am testing a few ideas with small stakes, so nothing to worry about.

Tennis: €67.97
I love trading tennis and I hate trading tennis. Will it every work for me?
I don’t know how much I wrote about trading this sport, but maybe it was way too much.
After the first down swing of the tennis trading in April I took a break and tried to erase all of my “knowledge” and of course all of my prejudices about the sport and about the odds movement. Then I tried to trade the matches with intuition. That means I used various stake sizes, depending on how confident I was about the trade. I also placed some bets based on value. The value investing concept is simple: Just place a bet or start a trade if the odds are wrong. Therefore you have to deal with losing runs, but that is just a matter of money management. The problem with the concept of value investing is how to estimate the true value of a bet. On long term your results will tell you, if your selections offered value or not.

Total P&L:  -€49.50

Another month of learning the hard way. The funny thing is I already wrote about those issues before, but it is quiet different to know the facts and to be aware of them.
I know the facts, now I need to be aware of them.

Cheers, Loocie

Chievo v Catania

Hello,

Currently I am doing some research on value betting on soccer matches. I am not an expert, but this pre match odds looks special:

Does anybody has information why the draw is favourite here?

Cheers, Loocie

Good Results

Hello,

Here is an overview of the trades of last week:

American Football: €20.21
After a bad last week Stock Lemon came back with a 3-1 record. It is always good to come back with a profit after a heavy loss. I am looking forward to next week.

Horse Racing: -€6.33
The lay selections seem to struggle a little at the moment. It is difficult to identify so called false favourites. This month’s strike rate is only 50%. October is not yet over, so I hope there will be some further selections to turn the lay selections into profit.

Soccer: €20.90
It is not usual for me to bet or trade on soccer, but Germany’s odds of 3.2 against Russia was a risk of a tenner worth. I think it was huge value. I expected Germany to be favourite. It was a gift. Thanks for that.

Tennis: €20.83
The good run on tennis continued. I traded on 17 matches, winning on 6 matches, losing on 6 matches and scratching on 5 matches. I traded every matches with a stake of €20.00. I am using a simple low risk strategy and it seems to pay off.

Total P&L: €55.61

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis Of September 2009

Hello,

During the last few weeks I did not write that much about my trading in detail. The month is almost over, so I will take the time to give you an update how I was doing.
Here is an overview of this months result sorted by sport:

American Football: €27.14
I am investing some money in the free selections of Stock Lemon. There are some good free tipsters outside, so why do not participate?

Horse Racing: €15.35
That’s the profit of my horse lay selections. Not much profit, but still a profit. This month I hade just a few selections.

Motor Sport: €42.14  
Trading Formula 1 races is working really well for me. I am discovering more and more markets of this sport. There is so much value on it. Fantastic!

Tennis: €39.07
During the last few months I struggled a little when trading tennis matches. I think it was a good example of over trading and taking too early too much risk. I tried to be successful in every match. But that is not possible. Losing money in some markets is not the problem. It is not about making profit in as much markets as you can. You just need to cover your losses with your winnings.

Total P&L: €123.70

A good result for me. It shows me that I am on the right track with my new view of trading.

I spent my time not only on trading on sports events. I also did some work on the betting bot front. I already created a bot for another bot for laying horses. Therefore I am also using websites like Timeform. Today I found an interesting race from yesterday:

 
Amenable won with a BSP of 320!! Amazing! The favourite traded in play at 1.06 and lost.
The bot is doing the selections automatically based on certain criteria, but at the moment I am doing the summary of every single race manually via Timeform. The bot selected more than 1000 horses to lay during the last 3 or 4 weeks, so you guess it also lays at higher odds. Therefore I need to collect more data, to see if it might be profitable or not.

I also worked on my Betfair API framework which is in a good progress. Everything is working fine at the moment, but it is a lot of work.

I will keep you updated!

Cheers, Loocie

My First Previews

Hello,

here is an overview of my last trades:

Trading Tennis

Petrova v Dementieva

Pre match odds: Petrova 4.1, Dementieva 1.33

Pre match odds were really wrong. I expected Dementieva @1.6-1.7 so I layed her pre match @1.33. Petrova started to serve and score was 0-30 and odds around 1.17. If she lose the set by one break odds would have been 1.14, so I layed Dementieva again @1.17. Petrova won her 1st serve game and also got the lead in the first set with 3-0. Odds on Dementieva raised to 1.8 and I made it each way @1.77, because she was only leading with one break and odds on Dementieva would have been around 2.1x if she lose the first set. Dementieva equalised and odds shortened to 1.33 again. Good decision to make it each way!

Petrova v Dementieva 4-6, 6-4, 4-6

Total profit tennis: +11.83

Trading Soccer

I scratched the trade in the match Koeln v Hannover. In the match Wehen v Kaiserslautern I had a small red each way, when score was still 0-0, but I was very confident about a goal appearance so I layed the draw to have a red on the draw and a small profit on every team. Final score was 4-2, so I made no loss.

Total profit soccer: +0.11

Total profit this month: +12.87

Today I will do my first preview of Tennis matches on this blog:

Zvonareva v Dementieva

Elena Dementieva is leading the H2H statistic 4-2 and on hard court she leads 3-0. Both players are in a good shape. Zvonareva plays her best tennis these days, so I expect a close match and I am sure this can be a classic 3 setter.

I will lay the winner of the first set, if inplay statistics indicate a close match. I also fancy Dementieva to win and I am really surprised about the pre match odds: Zvonareva 1.86, Dementieva 2.14.

The victory of Zvonareva over Jankovic is overestimated, so maybe this could be a reason for this odds.

Pre match I layed Zvonareva 17€@1.87.

My prediction: Zvonareva v Dementieva 1-2

Jankovic v V Williams

Jankovic leads the H2H 5-3, but on hard court Venus Williams leads 2-0. Jankovic had an injury timeout and a treatment during her last match, but I do not want to give her injury too much attention, because in every tournament she has injury timeouts. I expect again a 3 setter, but I only want to get involved, if statistics indicating a close match.

My prediction: Jankovic v V Williams 2-1

That's it for now. I will update later this evening.

Cheers, Loocie

Small trading this weekend

Hello,

I did not trade the last days at Wimbledon, because I did not identify any good trading opportunity, so I stayed away. Earlier this year I would have forced trades in similar situations and maybe would have lost.

Today we have the women's single final between Serena and Venus Williams. I expect a three setter, but will only enter the market, if I can see a good opportunity.

This weekend is also another Formula 1 weekend. I did some research on statistics and race facts and gave me €20 to get involved in markets of 2008 Formula 1 Santander British Grand Prix:

Safety Car?

Will there be a safety car deployed during the race? I think yes, because:

• In the last 5 years safety car deployed in 4 races
• Weather prediction: There is a good probability of rain during race
• No traction control for drivers this year

Winner

Who will win this race? I expect a Ferrari to win this race, but I expect Hamilton to get pole position. If he gets pole, I will lay him in the Winner market.

Points Finish

I think about to lay Heidfeld in points finish, but will wait until qualifying.

Will update later.

Update

I got involved in the women's final of 2008 All England Championship:

S. Williams v V. Williams

I applied a free lay and it worked:

As mentioned earlier today, I was expecting a three setter, so I put all my winnings on the loser of the first set:

In 2nd set Serena was a break in front and leading 2-1. She lost her service game and score was tight: 2-2.

From this point she was not serving very well and I was not sure about her to win this 2nd set. I hedged when Venus was leading 4-3 in 2nd set.

Wow, this was the first time I hedged at the perfect moment. I expected a three setter, but I recognized that the match did not develop as predicted and hedged my profit.

Final result: Serena v Venus 5-7, 4-6

All the best, Loocie

Stupid is as stupid does

Hello,

I had busy days at work so I could not trade very much. Not having much time for trading could be a reason for doing stupid things.

2008-04-22

Safin v Malisse

Layed Safin 100€@1,01 with the aim to back 50€@1,02 in the hope match could turn. Completely stupid! It is only small money, but it is wasted. There was no reason for doing this.

total loss this match: -1,00€

Andreev v Tursunov

Layed Andreev 20€@1,24 after winning 1st set 7-5. Andreev is not very stable during a match, so I think it was a good Lay. Sadly Tursunov could not fight back and I lost my hole stake.

total loss this match: -4,80€

Ramirez Hidalgo v Simon

I can not remember completely when I entered the market. Simon was injured, but there were good odds available to back Ramirez Hidalgo.

I remember Muxor took odds around 1,6x to back Ramirez Hidalgo. I was chasing ticks stupidly: Back 1,69 was available and I can not explain why I tried to get 1,72 or 1,73 but I did not take 1,69. It is completely stupid to chase 2 or 3 ticks. 1,69 was very good. I took 1,33 so I wasted more than 30 ticks to get 2 or 3 ticks!

My bets:

Back Ramirez Hidalgo 10€@1,33

Lay Ramirez Hidalgo 10€@1,01

total profit this match: +3,04€

Bolelli v Davydenko

They played each other a few days ago and Bolelli could win 1st set against Davydenko.

My bets:

Lay Davydenko 50€@1,1 after winning 1st set 6-2

Back Davydenko 20€@1,05 to reduce eventually loss.

In 2nd set Davydenko was leading 4-1.

Back Davydenko 20€@1,2 after Bolelli fought back to 4-4, so I had a free bet with 10€ profit on Bolelli and 0€ on Davydenko, but Davy won 2nd set 7-6 and I could not make profit.

total profit this match: 0,00€

2008-04-23

Lapentti v Tipsarevic

How statistics can lie! Lapentti  won 1st set 7-5. Tipsarevic had only 34% 1st serve and won only 25% return points in 1st set.

I backed Lapentti 10€@1,49 when score was 4-4 in 2nd set. Until this time Tipsarevic only won two return points in second set. I was quit confident about Lapentti winning an eventually tie break or breaking Tipsarevic. Tippy could reach a tie break an won 2nd set 7-6. Odds moved against me, but I was able to reduce liability but I did not. That was a mistake. I lost my whole stake.

total loss this match: -10€

Vliegen v Gasquet

I got an info about an injury of Gasquet and decided to apply tennis hedging strategy. I know using this strategy in early stages in tournaments is very risky. I learned this again when Gasquet won this match 6-1, 6-2.

total loss this match: -20€

stats tennis hedging strategy: -3,67€

today 2008-04-24

Djokovic v A Murray

Again something stupid. Laying Djokovic 100€1,01 to lose 1€.

total loss this match: -1,00€

Querrey v Gasquet

I could return to my normal way of trading tennis matches without being stupid.

Gasquet won 1st set 6-2 and odds on him moved to 1,1. In the first game of the 2nd set I could see some strange swings on odds so I layed Gasquet 100€@1,05 when Querrey was serving at 1-1 (0-15). This was a very tight game, Gasquet had 7 break points but could not convert any of them. After winning this game I could green up with a back Gasquet 50€@1,1 but I did not get all money matched, only 70,49€ and so I cancelled rest of the money, but was green.

Querrey improved his serve and took a 5-4 lead with Gasquet serving. Odds on Gasquet were around 1,08. This was a great free lay. Gasquet could only reach a 5-5 and odds would return to 1,05 or 1,06, so only 2 or 3 ticks risk with the possibility to gain 20 or 30 ticks. But it is important to back back the player you layed, when he wins his service game.

Gasquet did not and I could green up at 1,3 (so 22 ticks won). I green up each way to make a profit of 15,86€ with only 5€ risk. More than 300% ROI!

total profit this match: +15,86€

By the way: Gasquet lost this match 6-2, 4-6, 3-6.

Here are some conclusions to improve my trading and avoid stupid "trades":

• Do not chase ticks!
  
• Do not enter markets without a plan!
  
• Take stop loss according to situation. Do not lose your whole stake!
  
• Apply tennis hedging strategy only in final stages (QF, SF, F) of tournaments!

I will keep this in mind and hope to continue good trading from previous weeks.

All the best, Loocie

Finals Day

Good morning,

I chose to skip both ATP finals. As Almagro brought already enough upsets last days and don't want to lay odds around 2.

Federer - Davydenko I skipped just because I don't want to bet against the king, although he is still searching for his form with a new coach. But it is still Roger Federer, the world no. 1.

In both WTA matches I placed the lay orders yesterday and got already matched one back bet completely on Serena Williams and the other back bet on Kirilenko partially.

Serena Williams - Vera Zvonareva

Bets for the match:

Lay Williams 70€ @ 1.24 (initial bet was with higher stake, 70€ matched)

Back Williams 66€ @ 1.32

Minimum profit: 4,00€

With these two bets I managed to get the desired profit of 20% from a risk of 20€ even with risking less, as not everything from my initial lay bet was matched. But odds movement was big enough to get this profit. Both bets where matched more then 16 hours before the players will enter the court.

Maria Kirilenko - Iveta Benesova

Layed Kirilenko early yesterday. Odds increased over the night and my back bet was already partially matched. Odds dropped some tics again, but I am very confident that the odds will increase before the match and the hedge will be completed before he first ball is played.

Bets for the match:

Lay Kirilenko 38,47€ @ 1.52

Back Kirilenko 34,47€ @ 1.7 (4€ already matched)

 

Another match what will be covered today is the fourth game of German icehockey league finals. Last match in the own stadium for the Cologne Sharks for this season. Loocie and Muxor will be in the first row to support the sharks to get a chance for the championship on Tuesday in Berlin.

Go Sharks. Olé Olé!

Update 1:

Both hedges where catched completely prematch and the desired profit of 4,00€ was made in two matches. Makes the hedging for this weeks tournaments a total of 14 to 2 which makes 80% profit with this strategy.

 

Adios,

Muxor

It's Hedge Time

As I told before, no inplay trading for me in higher stages, so I tried to hedge 20% ROI in several matches.

 

The hedging strategy worked fine in the following matches:

Benesova - Pin

Ferrer - Verdasco

Szavay - Cornet

Dementieva - Schnyder

Benesova - Ani

Ferrer - Robredo

Serra - Davydenko

Cornet - S. Williams

Zvonareva - Dementieva

Zakopalova - Kirilenko (both hedgebets where matched prematch)

In all these matches I layed the fav prematch and left a back order to get 20% ROI each way.

In two matches I didn't want to lay the fav prematch and did the hedge after the first games. It also worked fine, but would also have worked in both cases with premtach lays.

S. Williams - Sharapova

Korolev - Haase

I also skipped several matches. Following the markets inplay showed: all premtach hedges in these matches would have cought. I skipped too many matches in quarter finals. Don't remember all of them, but here are some examples:

Jankovic - Zvonareva

Gremelmayer - Federer

Zakopalova - Knapp

Ani - Savchuk

 

But I also found a killer of the hedging strategy. This killer in the last two days was Nicolas Almagro. In two matches of him the prematch hedge didn't work for me and both matches resulted in a loss without taking a stop loss. Almagro was clear odds fav in the matches:

Korolev - Almagro

Monaco - Almagro

In both cases not many steps of odds where necessary for the hedge to catch, but in both cases it wasn't reached. But also in both cases the odds dropped some tics when the match went inplay without anything had happened. If I took these lower odds to lay in both cases the hedge would have cought in the first game of the match.

But how was the hedging strategy killed in these matches? Well, in both cases Almagro managed to completely dominate his opponent. In all 4 sets he was leading with break ahead from the first game of the set. So no chance for higher odds, as the odds movement knew only one direction: downwards. Such matches are working completely against this strategy, but it happens.

 

The result of these two hedging days where 14 placed hedges with 12 wins and 2 losses. Hopefully these two losses don't repeat itself too often, as the percentage of hedge catches should be a little bit higher.

But nonetheless the days resulted in profit: 2 times loss of 100% makes it 200% loss and 12 times 20% profit makes 240% profit, so an overall profit of 40% for these two days.

These two days showed that (starting from quarter final) this hedging strategy would have worked in all WTA matches in two tournaments, but ATP showed two losses as here one break can be very important and the odds don't come up again.

Will consider three finals (Estoril WTA and ATP, Charleston WTA) for hedging. Need to think if I will try it again with Almagro in the final in Valencia. Next week the next masters series event in Monaco will take place, so none of the players will risk an injury at such small tournaments, so I don't think we will see the whole potential tomorrow in all matches.

 

G'Day,

Muxor

Delivery goes on

Hello!

Sometimes it is possible to apply the tennis hedging strategy completely pre match:

Razzano v Govortsova

Layed Razzano 55€@1,28

Backed Razzano 49,31€@1,40

Backed Razzano 0,98€@1,41

All actions from yesterday.

Stats so far:

total profit tennis hedging strategy: +2,80€

Stay lucky,

Loocie

Selections for today

Hello,

today i will follow these selections:

• Benneteau v Karlovic Back Karlovic 10€@1,55
• Sela v Robredo Back Robredo
• Chela v Minar Back Chela
• Ancic v Murray Back Murray
• Soderling v Wawrinka Back Soderling
• Lisicki v Koryttseva Back Lisicki 10€@1,62
• Garbin v Bammer Back Bammer
• Petrova v Zheng Back Petrova
• Knapp v Safarova Back Safarova 10€@1,65
• Schiavone v Cibulkova Back Schiavone
• Sugiyama v M. Garrigues Back M. Garrigues
• Peng v Mauresmo Back Mauresmo

Many selections, so i will wait to see odds movement. If odds of a selection shorten lower than 1,45 the match will be skipped.

From now on, i will apply the following rule:
If my selection lost first set and won second set i will lay off. If there is a profit possible i will green up each way, also if there will be a small loss.

According to the situation i will also trade these matches inplay, so i hope i can minimize losses.

I will update odds later.

Fingers crossed,

Loocie

Update pre match tips 2008-03-28

Hello,

yesterdays pre match selections produced a small loss:

• Mathieu v Cilic 4-6, 6-1, 6-4 +6,08€ (Back Mathieu 10€@1,64)
• Andreev v Berrer 6-2, 6-1 +4,75€ (Back Andreev 10€@1,50)
• Ljubicic v Santoro 6-7, 6-2, 3-6 -10,00€ (Back Ljubicic 10€@1,71)
• Mahut v Moya 6-7, 4-6 +5,70€ (Back Moya 10€@1,60)
• Vesnina v Szavay 6-2, 4-6, 6-1 -10,00€ (Back Szavay 10€@1,55)

Azarenka was only available arround 1,36 and i skipped this match. This selections produced a loss of 3,47€. I hope i can do better today.

won: 17
lost: 7
strike rate: 70,83%
avg win odds: 1,64
p/l: 33,08€

All the best, Loocie

Pre match selections

Hello,

today i will follow these selections:

• Mathieu v Cilic Back Mathieu arround 1,67
• Andreev v Berrer Back Andreev arround 1,58
• Ljubicic v Santoro Back Ljubicic arround 1,61
• Mahut v Moya Back Moya arround 1,60
• Vesnina v Szavay Back Szavay arround 1,50
• Perebiynis v Azarenka Back Azarenka arround 1,52

I will wait to see odds movement until the matches start, so i post correct odds later.

Fingers crossed,

Loocie

First round update

Hello,

all selections from yesterday produced a total profit of 21,28€:

• Cilic v Vliegen 6-3, 6-2 +5,04€
• Mahut v Mayer 7-6, 6-3 +5,13€
• Tursunov v Korolev 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 +5,61€
• Del Potro v Levine 7-5, 6-1 +5,51€

I do not include this results into my pre match selection stats because i mentioned earlier not betting on first round matches.

All the best, Loocie

Small loss

Hello,

Masters tournament in Miami has already started. I got involved in the match Donald Young - Bobby Reynolds. Lost 5€ when laying Reynolds at 1,66 for 8€ after winning first set.

I am upset about the loss in straight sets, because Donald Young took a 4-0 career record into his match against Bobby Reynolds and lost only one set against him.

First round will start today. I will observe these matches closely, but i do not bet pre match in first round matches.

If a gun is put on to my head and I'm asked to predict a winner then I would go on these selections:

• Cilic v Vliegen Back Cilic @1,53
• Mahut v Mayer Back Mahut@1,54
• Tursunov v Korolev Back Tursunov@1,59
• Del Potro v Levine Back Del Potro@1,58

During this tournament i will bet on my selections pre match with real money and i try to get involved inplay if i can see any opportunity.

Good luck,

Loocie

Update pre match selection 2008-03-23

Hello,

easy win for Ana, easy win for us.

• Ivanovic v Kuznetsova 6-4, 6-3 +6,75€

won: 14
lost: 5
strike rate: 73,68%
avg win odds: 1,65
p/l: 36,55€

This tournament produced a profit of 36,55€ on 10€ level stakes. Not bad. I hope i can continue this strike rate in the next tournament.

All the best,

Loocie

Pre match selection

Hello,

Ana Ivanovic and Svetlana Kuznetsova will face off for their first 2008 Pacific Life Open women’s title. See my selection below:

• Ivanovic v Kuznetsova Back Ivanovic 10€@1,71

Good luck,

Loocie

Update pre match tips 2008-03-22

Hi,

Nole is my hero :)

• Djokovic v Nadal 6-3, 6-2 +5,99€

won: 13
lost: 5
strike rate: 72,22%
avg win odds: 1,65
p/l: 29,80€

Selection for today

I suggest this match:

• Djokovic v Nadal Back Djokovic 10€@1,63

Fingers crossed,

Loocie

Update pre match tips 2008-03-21

Hello,

Sharapova lost against Kuznetsova and so we lost too:

• Ivanovic v Jankovic 7-6, 6-3 +6,08€
• Sharapova v Kuznetsova 3-6, 7-5, 2-6 -10€
  

won: 12
lost: 5
strike rate: 70,59%
avg win odds: 1,65
p/l: 23,82€