It's Hedge Time

As I told before, no inplay trading for me in higher stages, so I tried to hedge 20% ROI in several matches.

 

The hedging strategy worked fine in the following matches:

Benesova - Pin

Ferrer - Verdasco

Szavay - Cornet

Dementieva - Schnyder

Benesova - Ani

Ferrer - Robredo

Serra - Davydenko

Cornet - S. Williams

Zvonareva - Dementieva

Zakopalova - Kirilenko (both hedgebets where matched prematch)

In all these matches I layed the fav prematch and left a back order to get 20% ROI each way.

In two matches I didn't want to lay the fav prematch and did the hedge after the first games. It also worked fine, but would also have worked in both cases with premtach lays.

S. Williams - Sharapova

Korolev - Haase

I also skipped several matches. Following the markets inplay showed: all premtach hedges in these matches would have cought. I skipped too many matches in quarter finals. Don't remember all of them, but here are some examples:

Jankovic - Zvonareva

Gremelmayer - Federer

Zakopalova - Knapp

Ani - Savchuk

 

But I also found a killer of the hedging strategy. This killer in the last two days was Nicolas Almagro. In two matches of him the prematch hedge didn't work for me and both matches resulted in a loss without taking a stop loss. Almagro was clear odds fav in the matches:

Korolev - Almagro

Monaco - Almagro

In both cases not many steps of odds where necessary for the hedge to catch, but in both cases it wasn't reached. But also in both cases the odds dropped some tics when the match went inplay without anything had happened. If I took these lower odds to lay in both cases the hedge would have cought in the first game of the match.

But how was the hedging strategy killed in these matches? Well, in both cases Almagro managed to completely dominate his opponent. In all 4 sets he was leading with break ahead from the first game of the set. So no chance for higher odds, as the odds movement knew only one direction: downwards. Such matches are working completely against this strategy, but it happens.

 

The result of these two hedging days where 14 placed hedges with 12 wins and 2 losses. Hopefully these two losses don't repeat itself too often, as the percentage of hedge catches should be a little bit higher.

But nonetheless the days resulted in profit: 2 times loss of 100% makes it 200% loss and 12 times 20% profit makes 240% profit, so an overall profit of 40% for these two days.

These two days showed that (starting from quarter final) this hedging strategy would have worked in all WTA matches in two tournaments, but ATP showed two losses as here one break can be very important and the odds don't come up again.

Will consider three finals (Estoril WTA and ATP, Charleston WTA) for hedging. Need to think if I will try it again with Almagro in the final in Valencia. Next week the next masters series event in Monaco will take place, so none of the players will risk an injury at such small tournaments, so I don't think we will see the whole potential tomorrow in all matches.

 

G'Day,

Muxor