Clayseason

So now I finally found time to write down my trades on the masters series event in Monte Carlo.

Started in the tournament with a loss trade, simillar to Loocies trade on the match, but was glad that finally I managed to cut losses and not losing always 100% of my stake.

Lopez - Murray

Loss: 10,88€ (-55% ROI)

Andreev - Tursunov

Layed Andreev at 1.25, because I expected him to choke. He didn't and his whole performance at this tournament is really very good and impressive.

Loss: 5,00€ (-100% ROI)

Things started to get better with the match

Ramirez Hidalgo - Simon

Knowing from the week before that Simon was injured, I took very good odds on Ramirez Hidalgo, who had no problems at all to win this match. I am very glad about this trade, because it showed that all information you collect about the players can be useful.

Profit: 9,81€ (+46,6% ROI)

 

In the following match I started to use a new strategy. Something I mentioned during very many matches. Sometimes during the first games of the second set the market shows a very high overreaction and odds drop very low. This happens if the fav of the match won the first set very clear and is starting to take a lead in second set. But results like 6-0 6-0 or 6-1 6-1 are very seldom. So the odds usually take some upswings. If you are not greedy you can make very good profit from these swings, because a lay at 1.02 and back at 1.04 (or lay at 1.01 and back at 1.02) means 100% profit. I watched markets very long and often till I decided to try this strategy. Timing is everything for this trading and you need to watch the money queues on the higher odds carefully. Don't use this strategy if the market doesn't believe in the losing player anymore at all. For example if the odds drop to 1.02 and there are already waiting several thousand bugs to be matched on 1.03 and on 1.04 you shouldn't take this option.

 

Bolelli - Davydenko

Bets for the match:

Lay Davydenko 1615,55€ @ 1.01

Back Davydenko 1615,00€ @ 1.02

Lay Davydenko 15,14€ @ 1.03

Profit: 15,69€ (+97,15% ROI)

Time between bets matched: 25 seconds

 

I also applied this strategy on the following matches:

O. Rochus - Nalbandian

Profit: 14,32€ (+95,47% ROI)

Ferrer - Tipsarevic

Profit: 17,70€ (+88,5% ROI)

Robredo - Nalbandian

Loss: 20,00€ (-100% ROI)

The last one was a really stupid trade. I was greedy and the market didn't show signs to swing up again. But this strategy still is in big profit.

 

If you want to know how to win a set with just 2 return points till the score is 6-6, ask Janko Tipsarevic. Never saw something like this before.

Tipsarevic - Lapentti

Loss: 10,00€ (-50% ROI)

 

From now on, no more losses.

Some trades just watching inplay market and trading regarding to the stats:

Youzhny - Andreev

Profit: 1,20€ (+8,96% ROI)

Ferrero - Nieminen

Profit: 0,50€ (+5% ROI)

Andreev - Almagro

I watched this match in the betfair live stream. Really very good performance and great rallies of both players. Andreev needed 9 match points to finally claim this victory for him. all 9 match points where during one game. Almagro also had three times the advantage, so this last game of the match took 30 points!

Profit: 4,06€ (+40,6% ROI)

 

We all know that the nickname of "The King" went over to Rafael Nadal during the clay season and he showed in his two matches that he deserves it. Really impressive and genius play of Rafa.

 

So let us just talk about... the best tennis player of all times.

Going with Federer all the way:

Federer - Ramirez Hidalgo

Federer won the first set, lost the second set and was down 5-1 in the third set. Ramirez Hidalgo didn't have any matchpoint. Do I need to say more?

Profit: 5,50€ (+27,5% ROI)

Federer - Monfils

Market gave a 1.2 prematch on Fedex, which I took with great pleasure. Added some more at odds of 1.44 (highest odd on Federer during the match: 1.52).

Profit: 5,10€ (+25,5% ROI)

 

One another rule for tennis trading:

Don't bet against Roger Federer!

 

So far this tournament showed a profit of 28,00€. Till the last trade it was 48,00€, but this stupid loss with laying Nalbandian although the market didn't show signs for swinging up. But still feeling very comfortable. Will add this to general strategies for my trading, which are: During first stages: normal inplay trading, regarding the stats, history and other information about players - lay low, back little higher - and in later stages the hedging strategies on selected ATP matches and all WTA matches.

So far the news from my trading on Monte Carlo Masters Series.

 

Tschüss bis dann,

Muxor