Value in Baseball (2)

Hello,

Today I will give an update of the Baseball betting. Earlier I mentioned, that it might be possible to identify value bets on sports like baseball, where you have many games during a season with lots of statistical data available. I only punted on the given selections on paper (actually Excel) to see, if it could be profitable or not. Here is an update of the selections:

Number of total matches: 661
Number of selections: 114
Number of back selections: 78
Number of lay selections: 36

Number of bets won: 68
Number of bets lost: 46
Strike Rate: 60%

Number of back bets won: 48
Number of back bets lost: 30
Strike Rate back bets: 60%

Number of lay bets won: 20
Number of lay bets lost: 16
Strike Rate lay bets: 56%

Fixed Unit Staking
Total Profit/Loss: +15.44 points
Total Profit/Loss back bets: +7.97 points
Total Profit/Loss lay bets: +7.47 points

Weighted Staking
Total Profit/Loss: +30.88 points
Total Profit/Loss back bets: +14.73 points
Total Profit/Loss lay bets: +16.15  points

Average winning back odds (back bets): 1.79
Average winning lay odds (lay bets): 1.85

 
It looks really promising so far. Next step is to create an application to match the bets automatically. I have already started to develop this application, but it will take some time. It is a lot of work.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selection:

No selections.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selection:

No selections.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selection:

2009-07-04    14:15    Bev    MAIDEN STAKES    ELECTIONEER

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Update: Electioneer won, so not a good start for us in July, but there is no need to worry. We will be back on winning track very soon.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selection:

No selections again.
Last month I had seven days in a row without a selection. It is not unusual, so we need to be patient again.

NB. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selection:

No selections again.
Patience is the key :)

NB. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Federer vs. Haas semi final preview

Roger Federer and Tommy Haas will reprise their French Open meeting in the Wimbledon semi finals and if there is half as much tennis betting drama this time around as there was at Roland Garros, punters are in for a treat.

Haas squandered a two-set and a break in the third advantage in that match as Federer battled his way to a historic 14th Grand Slam title. It was his best Grand Slam performance since his quarter final appearance at the 2007 US Open and confirmed the injury troubles that blighted him throughout 2008 are behind him.

He took his recovery to the next level at the Gerry Weber open at Halle, winning his first tour title since February 2007. It proved he could win tournaments on grass and persuaded me to follow him at Wimbledon.

Haas beat Novak Djokovic in the final at Halle and with the Serbian the top seed in his quarter at the All England Club, I fancied Haas to win his quarter. Despite some nervous moments in the third round against Marin Cilic, the bet paid off.

Federer, as ever, is another level. The five-time winner was clinical in dealing with the big-serving Ivo Karlovic in the last eight and it is easy to think that if Haas couldn’t beat Federer on the clay of Paris, he certainly will not on grass.

The Swiss legend leads their head-to-head record 9-2 and has won their last seven meetings, although Haas can take heart from the fact their two grass meetings, at Halle in 2005 and 2006, were tight. Haas has turned himself into a serve-and-volleyer over the last two weeks but facing Federer might bring a change of plan, as he likes nothing more than a target at the net to unfurl his passing strokes against.

Federer will surely win but a 3-1 scoreline could provide value. Haas won a first set tie-break in their Paris meeting despite not winning a point on the Federer serve until that point and will not be daunted by the pressure of the occasion.