Analysis of January 2010


this month was not the best one for me. “Disappointing” describes it the best.

American Football: -€34.72
Hmm…What to say about it? My strategy did not work the way I expected it. Maybe I am looking for too big odds movements. Need to do some more research.

Basketball: €1.88
Did not traded really Basketball. This figure just came from developing the bet matching for a bot.

Horse Racing: –€17.70
I started well with three profitable selections in a row at decent odds. Then two losers turned the month into a negative one. This can happen, so I am not too worried about. There will be better months for sure.

Soccer: -€1.39
I had two bets this weekend: B Munich v Mainz on Over/Under 2.5 goals market and Stuttgart v Dortmund : Match Odds market. The later one lost, so I made a small loss.

Tennis: –€14.52
The first month of a tennis season is always a tough one. There is really much uncertainty about the players form in the first few matches.
One of my main goals during 2010 is to become more professional in the way I am trading. I kept record of my trades and if you have a look at the numbers, it is not that bad, except the strike rate:

Total Trades 35
Win Trades 15
Loss Trades 19
Scratched 1
Strike Rate 44.52%
Average Win +10.24
Average Loss: –8.85

Generally I have a strike rate of 55-60% of profitable trades. This month I was not patient enough. I entered too many matches. Here is a graph of the progress of the P&L figure:

There is much space for improvement.

January Total P&L:  -€66.45
A disappointing month and a disappointing start into the trading year 2010, but this is just a bigger motivation for me for the next months. I know I can do better and I am sure I will.

What about the betting bots?
They are currently running in simulation mode and it seems the horrible weeks are behind us. I need to apply rules to protect the bank roll from those bad runs with daily maximum allowed losses. This might reduce the possible profit, but it also helps to stay in the game.

This week Betfair’s API service was totally crap. Today the API service was down again for sixth time this week alone.

LaylaCheval could have produced a profit of 50 points this month with the new filters and rules. I will work out the past results with the new filter and if this works I will give it another try.

HorstBecker is not yet performing as expected. I have not yet done all the research and analysing of the results with new filters and rules. So still a lot of work in front.

That’s it so far.

Cheers, Loocie

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