Analysis Of December 2008

Hello,

the trading month is over, so it is time to do my analysis. Today I will keep it a short blog entry:

This month's loss was a result of impatience and taking short positions. I traded too many Soccer matches. I had two matches where I could not accept a loss and entered in other markets (over/under) to cover the loss from match odds markets. It was wasting time and wasting money.

Overall stats:

December 08: -€17.37
November 08: +€70.10
October 08: +€38.35
September 08: -€11.57
August 08: -€7.74
July 08: +€29.10
June 08: +€25.90
May 08: +€1.36
April 08: +€25.27
March 08: +€3.08

Total profit 2008: +€156.48

That's it for now.

Cheers, Loocie

Do Not Take Short Positions

Hello,

Christmas is already over and now I have time to post my latest trades of the year.

This is not the result I wanted to achieve. I have to rethink about my style of trading American Football. Mostly I take short positions, but I think this will not work when using larger stakes, so I need to work on taking long positions. It is less stressful and I do not rely very much on fast live pictures. During the match Baltimore @ Dallas I identified such trading spots, but I did not take a long position.

That's it for now. I will do my analysis for December later and I will have a review of 2008 and a preview of 2009.

I wish you all a happy new year!

Cheers, Loocie

Soccer, Biathlon And American Football

Hello,

during the last week I had the following trades:

Trading Soccer

Soccer does not work for me this month. Again I forced a trade in the match Frankfurt v St. Pauli. The best method for me is laying a team when the score is still 0-0. I should concentrate on this.

In the match Bochum v Köln I layed Bochum pre match @2.2 which was a low price. I expected Bochum @2.4-2.5, but Köln did not played very well and I scratched the trade. Köln won the match 2-1, but I think it was the right decision.

Total loss trading Soccer: -10.25

Trading Biathlon

Again I had a look at the pursuit in biathlon. I missed one trade after the 1st shooting.
Just before the start of the last shooting the odds on Svendsen were 1.9x-2.0x and this was a typical gambling point. I recognized this and closed the trade with a small loss.

Total loss trading Biathlon: -0.72

Trading American Football

I am happy to post some green figures too :) Both matches were difficult to trade.

Total profit trading American Football: +12.92

There is only one week of trading for me this year. I would be happy if I could turn this month's small loss into a small profit to finish the last month of the year with a green figure.

Stats so far:
Total profit since last update: +1.86
Total loss this month: -4.65

Cheers, Loocie

Forcing Trades And Discovering Sports To Trade On

Hello,

here is an overview of my last trades:

Trading Soccer

All in all I forced the trades. The first match Mgladbach v Leverkusen went against me and I took the stop loss. I did not want to finish the day with a loss, so I put on more trades without having prepared them pre match, a beginner's mistake!

Total loss trading Soccer: -11.82

Trading American Football

This match was difficult to trade. Pre match I expected NYG to win this match. After the first half I had a risk free 6€ bet on NYG, but they lost the game and I made no profit.

Total profit American Football: +0.09

Trading Biathlon

At this weekend I had a look at the winter sports market on Betfair. General I am not interested in winter sports, but biathlon seems to be a good sport to trade on. A race lasts ca. 45 minutes and the way the odds move suits my style of trading. I will have a look at biathlon the next weekend too. Maybe I have found another sport to trade on during the tennis off-season.

Total profit Biathlon: +5.22

Stats so far:
Loss since last update: -6.51
Total loss this month: -6.51

I do not want to chase this loss, but if there is a good opportunity I will put on some trades.

That's it for now, have a nice day!

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis Of November 2008

Hello,

as mentioned in the last blog entry November 2008 was my best trading month so far. Here is my analysis:

Trading Tennis

number of matches I traded: 9
number of wins: 8
number of losses: 1
scratched trades: 0

number of wins > 3€: 5
number of losses > 3€: 1

total win: +37.15
total loss: -7.46 
total pl: +29.69

average win: +4.64
average loss: -7.46
average pl: +3.30

win rate: 89%
max win: +11.83
max loss: -7.46

Firstly, a good result. I knew that the tennis player are tired after a long season, so I picked the matches I traded on very carefully.

The conclusion of this month is: Less is more. There is no need to trade as much matches as possible.

Trading Soccer

number of matches I traded: 16
number of wins: 9
number of losses: 3
scratched trades: 4

number of wins > 3€: 5
number of losses > 3€: 1

total win: +27.31
total loss: -15.26 
total pl: +12.05

average win: +3.03
average loss: -5.09
average pl: +0.75

win rate: 75%
max win: +6.38
max loss: -11.42

Trading Soccer started with a bigger loss of -11.42. I am not sure, if this big loss was avoidable.

Actually I am trading Soccer with a stake size of 10€, but I will raise them in the next year, if my confidence in trading Soccer is a little bit higher than today.

Trading Other Sports

American Football: +22.48
Handball: +5.56
Motor Sport: +0.37

Every sport I traded in November 2008 ended in a profit, which is a really good result for a beginner in sports trading.

My actual trading bank is €264.65, so it is time to readjust my stake sizes. I do not expect very much trading during December 2008, so I will readjust my stake sizes at the start of 2009. I will also set goals for the trading year 2009, but I will do this after a complete review and analysis of the trading year 2008.

Overall stats:

November 08: +€70.10
October 08: +€38.35
September 08: -€11.57
August 08: -€7.74
July 08: +€29.10
June 08: +€25.90
May 08: +€1.36
April 08: +€25.27
March 08: +€3.08

That's it for now. I expect to trade only a few soccer matches and NFL games in December 2008 and I will only update this blog on a weekly basis.

I wish you all the best when trading!

Cheers, Loocie

Best Month So Far

Hello,

here is an overview of my last trades:

Trading Soccer

Trading American Football

Overall stats
Total profit since last update: +18.74
Total profit this month: +70.10

I do not know what to write about. Mostly I am writing about the mistakes I am making, but during this month I did not make many mistakes. I will make the analysis of November 2008 later this week, but there is one statistic I want to mention now:

I traded 31 sport events and I had only 5 losses.

I had many scratched trades, but I think these trades helped me to avoid losses.

That's it for now. Nothing more to write about.

All the best with trading!

Cheers, Loocie

Trading Soccer And American Football

Hello,

here is an overview of my last trades:

Trading Soccer

Bielefeld v Leverkusen

Pre match odds: Bielefeld 5.3, Leverkusen 1.75, Draw 4.1

I watched this match live and fancied Leverkusen to win. Score after the first half was still 0-0 and Bielefeld was really good defending. At the 50th minute I layed Leverkusen 10€@2.04 because at this time the odds should be something around 2.1-2.2 and Leverkusen could not create very much pressure on Bielefeld's defence. Three minutes later Bielefeld scored and I could make it each way.

Bielefeld v Leverkusen 2-1

I traded also Aachen v Osnabruck (0.00) and Karlsruhe v Dortmund (+0.27), but I scratched both trades.

Total profit trading soccer: +6.26

Trading American Football

NY Jets @ Tennessee

Pre match odds: NY Jets: 2.98, Tennessee: 1.5

I watched this match live on NASN. As mentioned earlier I am not happy about my trading of American Football. During this match I tried to anticipate the odds and if there is a significant difference between my predicted odds and the actual odds then I would put on a trade. I used a stake size of 10€. I was really surprised about the odds I got matched. I think there were some people betting (or trading) on this match without watching it. Within seconds I got matched odds less then evens on both sides!

I also wanted to trade the match Giants @ Arizona, but NASN had problems and I did not have live pictures, so I skipped that.

NY Jets 34 @ Tennessee 13

Stats so far:
Total profit since last update: +15.76
Total profit this month: +51.36

It has been quiet days on the trading front for me, so I could read some articles and books about trading in general. I found the web site http://www.tradingpsychology1.com/ and it seems really interesting stuff.

A year ago I was also one of these "Wannabe"-Traders who asked many people about their way of trading and mostly I got the answer "Study the market and learn to be disciplined and patient!". That was not my desired answer, but now I think I have a small clue, why this answer is the best advice I could get, because:

• When trading you need to know how the market reacts,
• You need to know which style of trades suits yourself
• And you need to learn that trading is hard work.

Finally, I also think you need experience when trading. Nobody can tell you something which makes you experienced like a professional trader, you need to make experiences by yourself.

That's it for now. I wish you all the best.

Cheers, Loocie

You Can Count On An English Goalkeeper

Hello,

what to say about the friendly match Germany v England? Germany did not play well and lost against a good playing English team.

Score was 0-1 and I layed England. I was waiting for Germany to start playing football, but they did not. They can do really better! I was preparing the hedge bet to take an each way loss, but then the desired goal was scored. Here a quote from sporting-life.com live ticker:

"63: GOAL HELMES (1-1)!!! Seconds after Bent misses a sitter at one end, Germany break and a horrendous moment of Chuckle Brothers 'to me-to you' between Terry and Carson sees Helmes sneak in to equalise."

It was not a good game to watch: Many mistakes and the wrong final result ;)

From a trading perspective it was a good game and I have a nice profit (53% ROI).

Germany v England 1-2

Stats so far:
Total profit since last update: +5.36
Total profit this month: +35.60

Cheers, Loocie

Roundup Of The Weekend

Hello,

during the last few days I made the following trades:

Trading Tennis

I am happy to have a profit in the last trade of the year. I was very disciplined and patient, although I missed a trading opportunity.

Total Profit Tennis: +5.72

Trading Soccer

In the match Koblenz v Mainz I was a little bit lucky. I backed Mainz right before a corner kick and they scored. Mainz was the better team and they put very much pressure on Koblenz' defence.

Total Profit Soccer: +6.11

Trading American Football

Trading NFL games does not work as expected. Often I have a profit each way and a fumble or an interception occurs and all the profit is gone. Yesterday in the match Chargers v Steelers I recognized that I am mixing my trading style. Generally I like it to take long positions, because it is not so hectic like taking short positions and you do not rely so much on a fast Internet connection and fast pictures on TV. When Trading American Football I am mixing taking long positions and taking short positions. Very often I take a long position and then I change my mind about the game and make this position to a short position. I think I have to work out a cheat sheet for Trading American Football like I did it for Trading Tennis.

Total Loss American Football: -0.38

The next weeks will be very quiet. Mostly I will trade at the weekend (Soccer and American Football), maybe some handball too.

During the last week I read that WUBT Radio is back. When You Bet Today radio show is hosted by “Man of Mystery”, who is running a betting bot and in his radio show he interviews some people from the betting front. Some of the interviews are available as podcast. I like to listen to his radio shows. It is very interesting to hear about people who are also involved in trading or betting.

Stats so far:
Total profit since last update: +11.45
Total profit this month: +30.24

All the best!

Cheers, Loocie

Quiet Days

Hello,

it has been quiet on the trading front during the last days. Tennis season is nearly over, so I can take this time to have a look in other sports.

I had two trades during the last few days:

Trading Tennis

Trading Handball

 

It is the 2nd time I was involved in trading handball. This match was televised via Eurosport and I watched the odds during the match. Liquidity is not very great, but this can also be a chance to get odds matched you do not get matched, if the liability is good.

What can I expect from the rest of the trading year? Well, I will have a look in soccer, nfl and handball. I do not expect many trades, because I only will put on a trade, if there is a really good opportunity.

I will also take this time to prepare for the tennis season next year. I will create an online database to save all my notes and comments about players and matches. I think I also have to analyse the play of each tennis player. Some of them are good servers others are good return players, some play only ground line strokes and others attack from the net, etc. It is also important to know under which weather conditions a tennis match takes place and which players have problems with it, e.g. Dinara Safina has problems with windy conditions.

That's it for now. I wish you all good luck with trading!

Stats so far:
total profit this month: +18.79

Cheers, Loocie

Semifinals WTA Championship 2008

Hello,

today I traded the following matches:

Zvonareva v Dementieva

Pre match odds: Zvonareva: 1.75, Dementieva: 2.34

As mentioned in my preview I could not understand why Zvonareva was favourite pre match.

I layed Zvonareva pre match @1.87.

Zvonareva started to serve and when Dementieva had her 1st break point in the first game I minimized risk with a Lay of Dementieva 10€@1.7. Later during the 1st set I had some further trades and I made it each way to have a profit of +7.72. Zvonareva won 1st set 7-6 and odds on her were around 1.4. According to her pre match odds it was too high to lay her, so I stopped trading and enjoyed the match.

My pre match prediction did not come true, but from a trading perspective it was a good decision to lay Zvonareva pre match. During the first set you could have traded out easily with a Lay on Dementieva @1.4.

Zvonareva v Dementieva 7-6, 3-6, 6-3

Jankovic v V Williams

Pre match odds: Jankovic: 2.3, V Williams: 1.77

I layed V Williams after winning 1st set 6-2 @1.20. When Jankovic started serving in 2nd set and score was *0-40 I got nervous and took a stop loss @1.08. What a mistake! Odds would not move very much lower than 1.08 if she lose the first game, so there was no need to take a stop loss at this moment. I recognized the mistake very soon and layed V Williams again, when score was 40-40 in the first game.

JJ fought back and was leading 3-0 in the 2nd set and odds raised to 1.56 on V Williams. I made it each way and accepted the mistake I made with taking the stop loss during the first game.

Jankovic v V Williams 2-6, 6-2, 3-6

Total profit today: +7.82
Total profit this month: +20.69

I am really happy with my tennis trading these days. Hopefully I can keep up this good performance during the next week.

Cheers, Loocie

My First Previews

Hello,

here is an overview of my last trades:

Trading Tennis

Petrova v Dementieva

Pre match odds: Petrova 4.1, Dementieva 1.33

Pre match odds were really wrong. I expected Dementieva @1.6-1.7 so I layed her pre match @1.33. Petrova started to serve and score was 0-30 and odds around 1.17. If she lose the set by one break odds would have been 1.14, so I layed Dementieva again @1.17. Petrova won her 1st serve game and also got the lead in the first set with 3-0. Odds on Dementieva raised to 1.8 and I made it each way @1.77, because she was only leading with one break and odds on Dementieva would have been around 2.1x if she lose the first set. Dementieva equalised and odds shortened to 1.33 again. Good decision to make it each way!

Petrova v Dementieva 4-6, 6-4, 4-6

Total profit tennis: +11.83

Trading Soccer

I scratched the trade in the match Koeln v Hannover. In the match Wehen v Kaiserslautern I had a small red each way, when score was still 0-0, but I was very confident about a goal appearance so I layed the draw to have a red on the draw and a small profit on every team. Final score was 4-2, so I made no loss.

Total profit soccer: +0.11

Total profit this month: +12.87

Today I will do my first preview of Tennis matches on this blog:

Zvonareva v Dementieva

Elena Dementieva is leading the H2H statistic 4-2 and on hard court she leads 3-0. Both players are in a good shape. Zvonareva plays her best tennis these days, so I expect a close match and I am sure this can be a classic 3 setter.

I will lay the winner of the first set, if inplay statistics indicate a close match. I also fancy Dementieva to win and I am really surprised about the pre match odds: Zvonareva 1.86, Dementieva 2.14.

The victory of Zvonareva over Jankovic is overestimated, so maybe this could be a reason for this odds.

Pre match I layed Zvonareva 17€@1.87.

My prediction: Zvonareva v Dementieva 1-2

Jankovic v V Williams

Jankovic leads the H2H 5-3, but on hard court Venus Williams leads 2-0. Jankovic had an injury timeout and a treatment during her last match, but I do not want to give her injury too much attention, because in every tournament she has injury timeouts. I expect again a 3 setter, but I only want to get involved, if statistics indicating a close match.

My prediction: Jankovic v V Williams 2-1

That's it for now. I will update later this evening.

Cheers, Loocie

Tennis, Soccer And Formula 1

Hello,

here is an overview of my last trades:

Trading Tennis

Everything worked fine except one match:

Ivanovic v Zvonareva
I applied a different approach to my regular trading. Generally I am looking for long positions during a tennis match, but in this match I was looking for short positions. I traded this match with my regular stake sizes and that was a mistake. My maximum liability raised to 50€ during the match and I am very happy that I could avoid a loss. When trying other strategies then only do paper trading or at least trade with small stakes.

When I remember my feelings during this match, than I have to say I was too nervous. I can not trade with such a hectic pace. Short position trading does not suit my style. That is also a reason why trading the horses pre-race does not work for me.

Total profit tennis: +11.78

Trading Soccer

A scratched trade and a heavy loss.

Kaiserslautern v 1860 Munich
Pre match I fancied Kaiserslautern to win, if they put pressure on the defence of 1860 Munich. They did, but they could not create a really good chance to score. I took a stop loss and had a loss of €2 each way. Score was still 0:0. That was the time I should have stopped trading this match. During the second half I layed the draw in the hope (hope is not good for trading) for a goal. The final score was 0:0 and I lost -11.46€ on this match.

Total loss soccer: -11.22

Trading Formula 1

Generally I only trade the fastest lap market. But I should have an eye on the safety car market as well. If you have quick fingers you can make decent profits. I think there was a collision at the start of race and if you are a little experienced in watching Formula 1 you could see that there was a very high probability of a safety car appearance. I will investigate this in the next season.

Trading the fastest lap market was quite difficult for me. This race was similar to the Italian GP where I lost over €70. Wet conditions at the start of the race and they changed to dry conditions during the race so we could see many different fastest lap leaders. I learned from my mistake in the Italian GP and had only a small profit from the last Grand Prix of 2008.

Hamilton won the driver championship and I think he deserved the title.

Total profit Formula 1: +0.37

I am really happy about my tennis trading. Hopefully I can keep up this performance.

Total profit this month: +0.93

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis Of October 2008

Hello,

another month is over, so it is time to analyse the trades of the last month.

Trading Tennis

number of matches I traded: 64
number of wins: 38
number of losses: 25
scratched trades: 1

number of wins > 3€: 21
number of losses > 3€: 18

total win: +140.10
total loss: -143.89 
total pl: -3.79

average win: +3.69
average loss: -5.76
average pl: -0.06

win rate: 60%
max win: +11.64
max loss: -18.05

What was bad this month:

As mentioned in the last blog entry I am cutting my winnings more than my losses.

I traded too many matches. I have certain situations where I put on a trade depending on the score, but in future I have to consider the odds at the given situation too.

What was good this month:

The new money management rules which I established after my analysis of September 2008 helped my to trade without fear.

Mostly I took stop losses when necessary.

I planned every match I traded.

Trading Soccer

number of matches I traded: 14
number of wins: 7
number of losses: 5
scratched trades: 2

number of wins > 3€: 6
number of losses > 3€: 2

total win: +42.28
total loss: -10.71
total pl: +31.57

average win: +6.04
average loss: -2.14
average pl: +2.26

win rate: 58%
max win: +21.85
max loss: -4.26

Most of the profit came from the match Bochum v Hoffenheim. During this month I was very patient when trading soccer. I know there are only a few key events during a match so it is essential to keep a clear head and being patient.

Trading other sports

Formula 1 +4.19
NFL -6.96

Overall stats:

October 08: +€38.35
September 08: -€11.57
August 08: -€7.74
July 08: +€29.10
June 08: +€25.90
May 08: +€1.36
April 08: +€25.27
March 08: +€3.08

Cheers, Loocie

I am cutting my winnings

Hello,

during this week I opened an account on Betdaq. I took the Betdaq New Free 25 Offer. From now on I have a backup exchange, if Betfair crashes.

I will also take Betdaq for my soccer trading. Very often I get better odds on Betdaq than on Betfair.

Here is an overview of my last trades:

Trading Tennis

Mathieu v Andreev -9.70
Kohlschreiber v Youzhny 11.65
Petrova v Mokh -1.50
Kiefer v Nalbandian -2.93
Ferrer v Kohlschreiber -4.82
Andreev v Simon 5.00

Total Loss Tennis: -2.30

Trading Soccer

Aachen v Rot-Weiss Ahlen 0.00
W Bremen v Leverkusen 5.34
Kaiserslautern v Osnabruck -0.90
Bochum v Hoffenheim 21.85

Total Profit Soccer: +26.29

Overall Stats:

Total Profit this month: +38.35

My tennis trading is still not very good. To many side steps. Yesterday I recognized that I cut my winnings too much.

I traded the match Andreev v Simon. Odds on Simon pre match: 1.65. Andreev lost first set 3-6 and was leading 4-1 in 2nd set. Odds on Simon 1.65-1.7. I backed Simon @1.65, because Andreev was leading with only one break in front and odds on Simon would not move very much, if Andreev wins the set. The only thing I had to do was waiting for the end of the second set. If Andreev wins the set I have to take the stop loss (estimated odds on Simon if he loses 2nd set 1.85) and if Simon wins 2nd set I would have made a nice profit. I used a stake size of 17€ to win 11€.
Let's do a little calculation:

Pre match odds on Simon: 1.65
Odds on Simon when score was 6-3, 1*-4: 1.65
Odds on Simon, if he loses 2nd set: 1.85

Scenario 1: Simon loses 2nd set

Taking stop loss at 1.85 produce an each way loss of -1.84€.

Scenario 2: Simon wins 2nd set

Profit: 11.00€

So I was risking 1.84€ to win 11.00€.

When you look at the figures above you see I made only 5.00€ because I made it too early each way.

So I was risking 1.84€ to win 5.00€. It is crazy!!

It is good that I see my mistakes, but I need to start avoiding them.

Cheers, Loocie

Side Steps

Hello,

here is an update of my last trades:

I am still not happy about my Tennis trading. I traded 11 matches, won on 6 and lost on 5 matches. Generally I count matches as 'scratched' when the pl is between -3€ and +3€, so I won on 4, lost on 3 and scratched 4 matches. I do not want to make an analysis here, but it is a fact, that my losses are too high or my wins are too small. I think I cut my winnings more than my losses, maybe I am sometimes too careful. I will investigate this issue deeper in my analysis of October. That's it for now.

Stats so far:

total profit this month: +€4.52

Cheers, Loocie

Mixed Bag

Hello,

here is an update of my last trades:

Since the last blog entry I made the huge amount of 2ct!! Incredible!!!!! A small profit is better than a huge loss, so I can not complain. The good thing is I stuck to my money management rules which helped me to stay in profit, but more important now it is easier for me to analyse my trades in detail. For example the match Gasquet vs Fish was a non-method trade, i.e. I put on a trade without having identified a trading opportunity. I had also two matches where I took my intended stop loss too late (Petrova v Pennetta and Verdasco vs Cilic). If I can avoid these mistakes, I can make some decent profits according to my stake sizes. During the last few days I have also recognized that I have to adjust my trading spots. Some of them only work when several criteria are matched.

That's it for now. Will update later this week.

Stats so far:
total profit this month: +€11.19

Cheers, Loocie

Tennis and Soccer Today

Hello,

today I traded the following matches:

Trading Tennis

Jankovic v Dementieva

Pre match odds: Jankovic 1.71, Dementieva: 2.38

I expected a close match. Both players were in a good shape. I fancied Jankovic to win, but I also knew she played many matches during the last few weeks, so she was a little tired. I had several trades, took stop losses, when necessary and greened up. It was not easy to trade this match, but finally I could make a small profit.

Jankovic v Dementieva 6-0, 1-6, 0-6

Zvonareva v Safina

Pre match odds: Zvonareva: 2.46, Safina: 1.67

I expected Safina to win. Both players were in a good shape and I expected a close match. I was not trading well. I took my intended positions too late and so I had to take stop losses in every trade. When score was 3-3 in the second set I stopped trading and accepted my loss.

Zvonareva v Safina 6-2, 7-6

Trading Soccer

Germany v Russia

Pre match odds on Germany: 1.80

It is not often that Germany lose a match at home. Captain Ballack was back in team and I fancied Germany to win this match. Germany had a good start and I backed them 10€@1.85. Just a few minutes later Podolski made the first goal and score was 1-0. I minimized risk by laying Germany @1.32. Later I made it each way.

Germany v Russia 2-1

Stats so far:

total profit today: +€0.24
total profit this month: +€11.17

Kind regards, Loocie

Patience Pay Off

Hello,

today I traded the following matches:

Dementieva v Petrova

Pre match odds: Dementieva: 1.73, Petrova: 2.36

I expected a close match. Both players were in a good shape and H2H statistic was 5-5. I expected Petrova to take at least one set, but if she serves well she could also win the match.

I had some trades, but nothing paid off. I always had to take the stop loss except one trade in the 2nd set: I layed Dementieva 25€@1.4 when score was 4*-4 0-30 and Dementieva was serving. Petrova made the break and also took the set and I made it each way. The profit is not massive, but the process, the way I traded was very good. I followed all my rules and on the long term it will pay off.

Dementieva v Petrova 6-4, 4-6, 7-6

Zvonareva v Cibulkova

Pre match odds: Zvonareva: 1.23, Cibulkova: 5.30

Zvonareva was clear favourite. Both players met never before, so I was cautious during my trades. I took some good positions but again nothing paid off. I missed one trading opportunity, but could catch up another chance to reduce my interim loss of -5.22€ to nothing. All in all a scratched trade.

Zvonareva v Cibulkova 7-5, 6-4

Santoro v Mathieu

Pre match odds: Santoro: 3.50, Mathieu: 1.39

Santoro was leading the H2H statistic 3-2, on indoor hard court H2H was 1-1. Mathieu was in a good shape. He played a good tournament in Metz, but during the match vs Stakhovsky he had an injury timeout because he had blisters on his feet. I had this in my mind and followed the match. Santoro had a good start and in the middle of the first set I took a position on him. When he won the first set I minimized risk by laying him. Later Mathieu retired and I made a nice profit.

Santoro v Mathieu 6-3, 3-2 retired

Jankovic v Pennetta

Pre match odds: Jankovic: 1.27, Pennetta: 4.60

Jankovic was clear favourite for me. She was leading the H2H 4-0 and is already in a good shape.

During this match I took two positions on Jankovic. I had to scratch the first one, but the second paid off and I could make a profit.

Jankovic v Pennetta 7-6, 6-3

Stats so far:

total profit today: €11.09
total profit this month: €10.83

My readjustment seems to pay off. During the last few days I am more focused on making good trades rather than making a certain profit. I am trading patiently like never before.

Cheers, Loocie

Trading Tennis

Hello,

today I traded the following matches:

Petrova v Wozniacki

Pre match odds: Petrova 1.45, Wozniacki 3.20

Petrova was favourite. She played at home and Wozniacki suffered from a cold. I had two trades, but both ended in a loss. I took the stop losses and followed all my rules, so it was a not a bad trade.

Petrova v Wozniacki 6-4, 3-2 by Retirement

Nishikori v Hrbaty

Pre match odds: Nishikori 1.70, Hrbaty 2.44

At the moment I apply a rule only to get involved in a match if there plays a top 25 player of WTA or ATP, but I also have a look at all the newcomers on the tour.

Nishikori seemed to have a knee injury, so his price moved from 1.4x to 1.7 pre match.

Nishikori won the first set easily 6-1. After he lost the second set 1-6, I backed Hrbaty 17€@1.9 because I was expecting a retirement of Nishikori. He only had an injury timeout and when they started the 3rd set I scratched the trade.

Nishikori v Hrbaty 6-1, 1-6, 7-5

Makarova v Pennetta

Pre match odds: Makarova: 3.25, Pennetta: 1.45

Pre match Pennetta was favourite. She had a good match against Venus Williams two days before. I expected her to win.

From the start Pennetta was serving badly. Match was not easy to trade. I took several positions, but nothing paid off. At the start of the second set I could close my position with a small win, because Pennetta was still serving badly. The good think was I recognized early, that she did not improve and I closed the trade. I was not hoping for a break in my favour. If there is no opportunity, then get out as soon as possible.

Generally I should be more cautious, if players play the first time each other.

Makarova v Pennetta 6-3, 4-6, still playing while typing this

Stats so far:

total loss today: -€1.96
total loss this month: -€0.26

Some side steps today. I took positions but nothing paid off. But for all that I am satisfied of the way I traded all the matches. I followed all my rules and was patient. If I can keep up the way I am actually trading until the end of the month I am confident it will be a profitable month for me.

Cheers, Loocie

Best Trading Day So Far

Hello,

today I traded the following matches:

Wozniacki v Chakvetadze

Pre match odds: Wozniacki 1.62, Chakvetadze 2.54
Wozniacki is in a good shape and she was favourite. Chakvetadze was playing at home so I knew about her motivation to win this game.
Chakvetadze had a good start and was leading very soon 1-4* with odds on Chakvetadze 1.37. This was a great opportunity to lay, because odds would not move very much lower if she wins the 1st set 6-1. Wozniacki made a break and odds on Chakvetadze moved to 1.78. I missed that opportunity, but I was patient and did not force a trade like I did it in the past too often.

Chakvetadze won 1st set 6-2. When she made an early break and was leading 1*-0 odds on her dropped to 1.13 and I laid her 25€@1.13, because it was only an early break. Wozniacki made a re break and I created a risk free bet on Wozniacki. When she won the second set I made it each way.

Wozniacki v Chakvetadze 2-6, 6-1, 6-4

Stakhovsky v Mathieu

Pre match odds: Stakhovsky 3.5 , Mathieu 1.4

Mathieu was favourite, but I know he can be very unstable during a match. When score was 2*-3 for Mathieu I layed him 25€@, because his serving stats were bad.

During the break after this 5th game he had a foot treatment and odds moved to 1.59 and I backed him 10€@1.59 to minimize risk.

When score was 2*-3 15-40 I scratched that trade.

Stakhovsky v Mathieu 6-3, 6-2

Mauresmo v Safina

Pre match odds: Mauresmo 5.00, Safina 1.24

Mauresmo leads the H2H 4-1 and the H2H on indoor hard 2-1 against Safina. I was confident Mauresmo could take a sat, but the victory should be with Safina.

Generally I do not like to oppose the favourite too often, but when score was 2*-1 for Safina I layed her 25€@1.12 because I expected Mauresmo to give a good fight. She really did and won the 1st set in the tie break and I made it each way.

Mauresmo v Safina 7-6, still playing while typing this

Almost a perfect day of trading. I followed my plans, stuck strictly to my rules and missed only one trading opportunity.

Stats so far:

total profit today: +14.09€

total profit this month: +1.69€

All the best!

Cheers, Loocie

Trades Of Today

Hello,

I traded the following matches:

Errani v Azarenka

Pre match odds: Errani 5.9, Azarenka 1.2

Azarenka was in a good shape so she was clear favourite. I was a little in doubt about her back injury. She had one or two injury timeouts during the tournament in Stuttgart. Azarenka had a good start and won 1st set 6-1. Her odds dropped to 1.03 and I layed her 25€@1.03.

I entered a order to back Azarenka 12.50€@1.06 to have a free bet of 12.50€ on Errani and nothing to lose on Azarenka.

Errani fought back and won 2nd set 6-4. I made it each way and had a small profit. this 1.03 was a little too low, so I took this position, because I knew about the injury of Azarenka.

Errani v Azarenka 1-6, 6-4, 6-3

Wawrinka v Petzschner

Pre match odds: Wawrinka 1.21, Petzschner 5.7

Wawrinka was favourite for me. Petzschner is a good player on indoor hard, so I had to be cautious. Wawrinka won 1st 7-6.

When score was 4-1* for Petzschner in the second set there was a back of 1.43 for Wawrinka available, more than twice the number of the pre match odds and Petzschner was only one break in front. I backed Wawrinka 25€@1.43. Sadly it did not pay off, so I took a stop loss.

Wawrinka v Petzschner 7-6, 2-6, 6-7

I followed other matches too, but there was no trading spot for me. All in all I am satisfied with the trades of today. I followed all my rules and was patient. A small loss today, but I am pretty sure, the way I am trading during the past few days will pay off soon. 

Stay lucky!

Cheers, Loocie

Update of my last trades

Hello,

during the last few days I made the following trades:

Trading Tennis

Dementieva v Azarenka

I started the trading with a stupid loss. I was trading the first set only with the hope of a service break. Before the tie break of the first set was played I had a loss of -3.75. During the tie break I started to gamble. What a mistake. Both players made many receiving points and their percentages of serve was equally.

During the first games in the second set I was indecision about how the match could develop and I made complete stupid decisions. Should have stopped the trade.

Dementieva v Azarenka 6-7, 6-3, 1-6

Li v Petrova

Na Li had a big fight against Serena Williams, so she could have been a little bit tired. Petrova seemed in a good form. She only lost against Schnyder in Bali and against Safina. Petrova leads the h2h with 5-0. Pre match odds: Li 3.84, Petrova 1.85.

I backed Petrova 20€@1.6 when I saw her serving very well. Na Li had problems with this serve and Petrova won this match comfortably.

Li v Petrova 2-6, 3-6

Zvonareva v Jankovic

I expected a close match. Both players are in a good shape and they had a tight match against each other in Beijing.

When score was 3-3 30-0 and Jankovic serving I backed 20€@1.67. When she was leading 5-3 and serving for match I laid off to have 4.90€ each way. During the second set I made a huge mistake. I laid Jankovic at 1.6, which was a big price for backing her, because her pre match odds where 1.62. I could scratch that a little bit and lost only a few cents.

Zvonareva v Jankovic 6-7, 6-7

Petrova v Azarenka

Petrova was clear favourite for me. She played really well yesterday and was serving very good. Azarenka had a good but long match against Dementieva and she was also playing the double tournament in Stuttgart, so maybe she was a little bit tired. She also had a injury timeout during the match vs Dementieva. I backed Petrova 10€@1.7 pre match.

Petrova had a good start and was leading 4-0 and I laid off to have a 4.12€ profit each way.

I entered again, but this was not a good opportunity. Took the stop loss, but most of the profit was already wasted. Petrova won the first set 6-4 and I backed her again @1.26. She broke Azarenka and I laid off. I had some quick trades, but mostly I scratched them.

Petrova v Azarenka 6-4, 6-4

V Williams v Jankovic

I had some trades during the first set, but could not make a profit and I made it each way before the tie break. That was a good decision, because trading in tie breaks is mostly gambling.

Later in the second set and made a stupid trade and had a loss of 8 or 9€. This loss came from not taking a trading position and I could not accept this mistake I made. I put more money in and finally I lost 18€.

Generally, I have no problem with taking a stop loss, I only have a problem with it, when I make some silly mistakes. Then I can not accept the loss and try to force this trade into a profit. Therefore I have to learn to stop doing these silly mistakes like throwing a profit away or chasing for possible service breaks.

V Williams v Jankovic 7-6, 5-7, 2-6

Petrova v Jankovic

That was well traded. I took stop losses when necessary and I have only a small loss.

Petrova v Jankovic 6-4, 6-3

Tursunov v Mathieu

Tursunov v Mathieu 7-6, 1-6, 6-4

I backed Tursunov when he was 2-0 behind in the second set. It was an early break and odds on Tursunov @1.65. Pre match his odds was 1.66, so a good trading opportunity. The Russian tanked the 2nd set and I had to take my stop loss. Was not a bad trade. I followed all my rules and I am sure it will pay off in the next matches.

Mauresmo v Cornet

Pre match odds: Mauresmo 1.57, Cornet 2.7

Mauresmo was favourite for me. She leads the H2H 2-0 and Cornet seems to be not in form. Maybe she is just tired from a long season.

Cornet served first. When score was 0-0 40-40 I backed Mauresmo 10€@1.51. Cornet made the game and an early break, so score was 2*-0 Cornet. I laid Cornet 5€@1.99. Mauresmo fought back and I laid Mauresmo 5€@1.51.

When score was 2*-2 and Cornet was serving there was a 1.3 Lay Mauresmo available. This would have been the perfect odds to take out the risk, because if Mauresmo would win the 1st set, odds would have been 1.2. I did not take out the risk so I had to scratch the trade with a Lay Mauresmo 10€@1.7 when Cornet was leading 4-3* and Mauresmo was serving. Cornet won the 1st set 7-6 and I laid her 25€@1.46. Great value it was! Stats of both players were equal, so there was a high chance of a 2nd set win by Mauresmo. When score was 2-1* in the 2nd set and Cornet was serving I backed her 10€@1.7 to minimize risk. When score was 2-1* 15-40 there was at least a 2.0 Back Cornet available and this would have been the perfect situation to eliminate the risk and make it each way. Again I didn't made the order, so later when score was 2*-2 0-30 and Mauresmo was serving I had to scratch the trade.

Good: I identified two good trading spots and I took the stop losses when necessary. I recognized early, that I had to close the first trade @ 1.3, but I accepted the mistake and concentrated further on trading the match.

Bad: I did not close the trade, when there was the perfect situation for.

Mauresmo v Cornet 6-7, 6-3, 6-4

Cibulkova v Bartoli

Laid Cibulkova 25€@1.31 after winning the first set. Bartoli made a break and was leading 1*-0 in the first set, backed a small amount back.

When score was 1*-0 0-30 I scratched the trade.

Cibulkova v Bartoli 6-1, 4-1 retired

Trading Soccer

Stuttgart v Bremen -€2.00

Trading NFL

Seattle @ NY Giants -€0.74

Stats so far:

total loss this month: -€11.42

My last trades of Tennis were better. I was patient and took the stop losses when necessary. My cheat sheet helped me to stay focused. Also my new money management rules let me stay in a trade without having fear.

I am interested how my trading develops with this new rules.

Cheers, Loocie