Trading 2008 Roland Garros

Hi,

yesterday 2008 French Open started and I was involved in the following matches:

Vaidisova v Benesova

First game and first loss.

In 1st set I applied a free lay, but did not work. Benesova won 1st set and I layed her. I hoped Vaidisova could force a third set. She stopped playing tennis and lost 2nd set 1-6.

total loss this match: -13.70€

Gremelmayr v Djokovic

Gremelmayr was playing pretty well in 1st set and Djokovic was in trouble. Pre match odds on Djokovic: 1.02! I backed Djokovic @1.15 but got too nervous, maybe because of previous loss and took a stop loss.

total loss this match: -3.51€

Moya v Schwank

I applied a free lay. Did not worked. Generally free lays only work in matches best of 3 sets, so I should not apply this in best of 5 set matches.

total loss this match: -0.89€

Ditty v Dechy

Again a free lay, but it worked.

total profit this match: +4.00€

What a bad start for me in 2008 French Open. I hope I can improve today.

Stats so far:

total loss yesterday: -14.09€

total loss last week: -1.89€

total profit this month: +38.90€

All the best, Loocie

Trading tennis today

Hello,

just a little update of my last trades:

Pironkova v A Radwanska

Again I had problems in finding the right situation to close the trade. Could have been more profit.

total profit this match: +2.61€

Dementieva v A Radwanska

I applied my tennis hedging strategy.

total profit this match: +4.37€

Stats so far:

total profit this week: +12.20€

total profit this month: +52.99€

All the best,

Loocie

Today's tennis trades

Hello,

today I traded the following matches:

Petrova v Amanmuradova

Petrova was favourite with pre match odds around 1.3. Yesterday I layed Petrova @1.31 because I thought the odds would move to 1.4x. This morning I woke up and logged in Betfair and match was already inplay. Yesterday order of play showed, that this match should start not before 12.00 AM.

I had to take a stop loss because odds moved to 1.25 or something. Later I could apply some quick trades to break even on this match.

Petrova was leading 5-1 in 1st set. Should be an easy win of 1st set, but then she stopped playing tennis. Amanmuradova was fighting and could equalize, so score was 5-5 and Petrova was serving. I layed Petrova 10€@1.32. She won this service game and was leading 6-5. When Amanmuradova was serving Petrova had two set points and score was 15-40. Amanmuradova fought back and score was 6-6. Good for me, but not so good for Petrova: She lost tie break 0-7! I took out risk, but let most of the money on Amanmuradova.

Final result: Petrova v Amanmuradova 6-7, 6-1, 4-6

total profit this match: +5.80€

Pironkova v Govortsova

Pironkova won 1st set 7-6 and I layed her in tie break of 2nd set. 100€@1.03. Very often you see big swings in tie breaks and both players had around 40% return points won so there was a good chance of having a big swing. But not today. Pironkova won this match 7-6, 7-6 and I lost my whole stake.

total loss this match: -3.00€

Srebotnik v Peng

Srebotnik won 1st set 6-4 and she was leading 6-5 in 2nd set. See match stats below:

Peng had 48% return points won in this 2nd set, so there was a high probability of a rebreak. So I layed Srebotnik 100€@1.02 with the intention to back her at 50€@1.04 back to have a risk free bet on Peng. This trade worked, but Peng did not make the break and Srebotnik won 6-5, 7-5,.

total profit this match: 0.00€

Davydenko v Seppi

Earlier this day Davydenko played his 2nd round match against John Isner. Davydenko won this match 6-2, 6-7, 6-3. So how about his fitness and how about his motivation to have another fight, especially when next week 2008 French Open will start.

Seppi also played earlier today, but he could beat Kavcic 6-1, 6-4 easily.

Pre match I could create a risk free bet on Seppi. See screenshot below:

So fingers crossed for Seppi! I will update later.

Update

Davydenko won this match 6-3, 1-6, 6-3

Stats so far:

total profit this match: +0.95€

total profit today: +3.75€

total profit this week: +5.22€

total profit this month: +46.01€

All the best, Loocie

Trading 2008 Istanbul Cup

Hello,

today I traded one match:

Vierin v Govortsova

Govortsova was pre match favourite with odds around 1.3. Vierin was leading 5-4 in 1st set and serving for set. See stats below:

I was confident Govortsova would broke back, so I backed Govortsova 10€@1.64. She did and won the 1st set 7-6. I layed off and had a free risk bet on Govortsova. Final result: Vierin v Govortsova 6-7, 1-6

total profit this match: +4.32€

Stats so far:

total profit this week: +1.47€

total profit this month: +42.26€

All the best, Loocie

Be careful in weeks before a grand slam

Hello,

had some busy days at work. But I am not unhappy with do not having much time for tennis trading, because next week 2008 French Open will start, so we do not know how motivated are players.

I traded the following matches:

Tsonga v Montanes

I applied a free lay, when Montanes was leading 6-5 and Tsonga serving. Free lay did not worked, but I could do some quick trades during tie break and turn the small loss into a small win.

total profit this match: +0.56€

Clement v Ventura

Again a free lay, but did not worked.

total loss this match: -1.55€

Pironkova v Hercog

total profit this match: +1.04€

Bacsinszky v Dokic

total profit this match: +0.65€

Dancevic v Hernandez

Another free lay, but also did not worked :(

total loss this match: -3.55€

Generally liquidity is very poor, so I should stay away. There is no need to waste money.

Stats so far:

total loss yesterday/today: -2.85€

total loss this week: -2.85€

total profit this month: +37.94€

All the best, Loocie

A little more motivation please

Hello,

today I traded the following matches:

Kohlschreiber v Ferrer

Shame on Ferrer! Why did he play World Team Cup for his country? No motivation, no fighting, just standing on court and waiting for match finish.

Maybe he is one of these players who only try to play their best tennis if they get points for atp ranking or huge price money.

Ferrer was wasting this match away and lost 1-6, 0-6.

I layed Kohlschreiber 1.3 in 1st set. Was a good price, because odds on Kohlschreiber were 1.33 after winning 1st set.

total loss this match: -6.60€

Youzhny v Starace

That was a good match. Both players were fighting for their country. I applied a free lay in 2nd set when Starace was leading 6-5 and Youzhny serving. Starace won 2nd set 7-5 and I took the profit each way.

total profit this match: +6.19€

Cornet v Jankovic

I layed Jankovic pre match 25€@1.24 but was not a good decision, she won 1st set 6-2. I had some quick trades to reduce my liability, but had a small loss.

total loss this match: -2.82€

Was not my best trading day. Stats so far:

total loss today: -3.23€

total profit this week: +23.47€

total profit this month: +40.79€

All the best,

Loocie

Take profit whenever you can

Hello,

today I traded only one match:

Djokovic v Nadal

Odds on Nadal pre match: 1.5. Djokovic was leading 2-0 in 1st set and I backed Nadal 10€@2.0. Very high odds on the king of clay court, I think.

Nadal was fighting and won 1st set 7-5. Early in 2nd set odds on Nadal were 1.1 and this was the perfect point to close the trade and green up. I did not, I only reduced my liability.

Djokovic was also fighting and won 2nd set 6-2. In 3rd set I green up, but it was really to late. It could have been more profit.

Ok, profit is profit, so I am happy.

total profit this match: +5.16€

total profit this week: +26.70€

total profit this month: +44.02€

All the best,

Loocie

Tennis hedging inplay

Hello,

today I traded the following matches:

Federer v Verdasco

I modified my tennis hedging strategy and applied this strategy completely inplay. The lower the odds, the lower is the required odds movement to achieve 20% profit each way.

Federer won 1st set 6-3. Score in 2nd set was 2-1 for Verdasco and Federer was serving. Odds on Federer were 1.06. I only needed 1.07 to reach my 20%. Federer lost 1st point and I got my 1.07 and the profit was there. In previous service game I watched the odds closely and recognized that the odds moved quickly, if there was just a second serve.

total profit this match: +4.98€

Montanes v Djokovic

Similar situation here:

Djokovic won 1st set 6-2, but Montanes was not playing bad. Odds on Djokovic were around 1.1, so I needed only 2 ticks to make 20% profit each way.

total profit this match: +5.13€

V Williams v Jankovic

This was an example how not to apply this modified strategy:

It is very important, that you watch the odds movement in previous service games. I did not watched the odds, but layed Jankovic when she was serving for match. It was such a stupid trade. I think you should apply this strategy only in early service games, not in deciding service games and you have to watch the odds movement.

total loss this match: -5.00€

Maybe I will trade Nadal - Moya later.

Update

No more trading today.

Stats:

total profit today: +5.11€

total profit this week: +21.54€

total profit this month: +38.86€

All the best, Loocie

Do they know the Betfair retirement rule?

Hello,

today I traded the following matches:

Safin v Moya

I applied free lays: I layed Moya when Safin was leading 5-4 and later when he was leading 6-5, but those free lays did not work, so score was 6-6. For this tie break I used a stop loss with a maximum loss of 5€. I was happy because the stop loss was not necessary, so I could turn the small loss into a small win.

total profit this match: +0.36€

Pironkova v Azarenka

What a disappointing match! I layed Pironkova 5€@1.9 when she was leading 4-2. She won this set 6-2 but stats showed that both players were equal. See picture below:

After Pironkova won this 1st set, I layed her again.

You see in this picture what happened, Azarenka retired. I can not understand why these players play the first set. Maybe they know the Betfair retirement rule.

total loss this match: -11.35€

Wozniacki v Sharapova

Sharapova won 1st set 6-4, but was a break behind in 2nd set when Wozniacki was leading 4-1. I backed Sharapova 10€@1.3, because it was just one break and the odds were higher than pre match, crazy!Sharapova fought back and won this set 7-6. I did not lay off.

total profit this match: +2.85€

A Radwanska v Chakvetadze

I was nervous when trading this match. Had really very much trades, was not a good match. Finally I scratched all the trades I putted in. I think it was a mix of fear losing again money and not having a right trading plan for this match. I could avoid a loss, so I am not unhappy.

total profit this match: +0.02€

Kuznetsova v Cornet

Was the same as in previous match. Again fear of losing money, so I scratched my trade. I opposed Kuznetsova, so it is double frustrating as she lost in straight sets.

total profit this match: +0.45€

Not a good trading day for me. Can not understand why I lose so fast my self confidence, especially because my loss came from a match with a retirement.

Stats so far:

total profit today: -7.67€

total profit this week: +16.43€

total profit this month: +33.75€

All the best, Loocie

Trading ATP Hamburg and WTA Rome

Hello,

today I traded the following matches:

Montanes v Acasuso

I applied a free lay:

Montanes was leading 6-5 in 1st set. He had 46% return points won, which is very good for atp matches. 1st serve percentage of Acasuso is very low for atp.

I layed Acasuso 10€@1.83 and hoped Montanes could take the set 7-5. He did not and I backed Acasuso 11.44€@1.60. This free lay did not worked

total loss this match: -1.44€

K Bondarenko v Garbin

I applied another free lay:

Same situation here: I layed Garbin 10€@2.5 and she lost her service game and Bondarenko won 1st set 7-5. I layed Bondarenko 5€@1.43 to reduce liability and later I layed again to have a profit each way.

total profit this match: +3.99€

A Radwanska v Vinci

Vinci was leading 2-0 in 1st set and I layed her 5€@3.1. Radwanska lost 1st set 3-6 and I was confident she could win 2nd set and also the match. I lay Vinci 5€@2.1 after she won 1st set. Radwanska improved and won this match 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 and I could make a profit.

total profit this match: +5.18

Szavay v Errani

Szavay lost first set 0-6. Generally it does not happen very often, that a player loses 6-0, 6-0, so I layed Errani 20€@1.5. Odds on Errani were flipping, so I was able to reduce my liability with some fast trades. I greened up when Errani was serving for match. In past I had not very good experiences with Szavay. She is not stable. She can beat good players in straight sets but can also lose a match against a very low ranked player. I know Errani is good on clay, but Szavay should be able to take at least one set. In future I will be careful with trading on Szavay.

total profit this match: +2.98

Was a good trading day so far. Maybe I enter more matches. Will update later.

Update

I had no more trades today.

total profit today: +10.71€

total profit this week: +24.10€

total profit this month: +41.42€

All the best, Loocie

That's the way I like it

Hello,

today I traded the following matches:

Benneteau v Moya

Benneteau won first set 6-3. In 2nd set Moya was leading 5-4 and Benneteau was serving. Moya had around 40% return points won. I layed Benneteau 10€@1.37. Was a great free lay! Moya broke Benneteau and won 2nd set 6-4. I reduced my liability and backed Moya after winning this 2nd set. Later I green up to make profit each way.

My bets:

Lay Benneteau 10€@1.37

Lay Moya 4€@1.89

Lay Moya 4.21€@1.46

total profit this match: +4.27€

Cibulkova v Dulko

I am not sure when I entered the market. I layed Dulko 10€@1.5 and backed back later to have a profit each way.

Cibulkova won this match comfortably 7-6, 6-4.

total profit this match: +5.11€

Petrova v Kirilenko

Generally both players are very unstable during a match. I layed Petrova 10€@1.30 in 1st set. Was a massive short price and I could not understand why the price was so low. Petrova won 1st set, but odds did not moved under 1.30. Kirilenko won second set and I was able to close the trade and green up to have a profit each way. Match is suspended caused by rain, but I am in profit on both players.

total profit this match: +4.01€

Very nice trades so far. I think I took the right moments to close my trades (generally this is something I have to improve). Maybe I will enter other matches today, so I will update this blog entry later.

Update

No more trading today.

total profit today: +13.39€

total profit this week: +13.39€

total profit this month: +30.71€

Cheers, Loocie

Stop losses are very useful

Hi,

yesterday I had only small trades. I traded one tennis match and Formula1 GP of Turkey:

Darcis v Ljubicic

I applied a free lay: Darcis was leading 6-5 in 3rd set and I layed Ljubicic 4€@2,2. Ljubicic won his service game and score was 6-6. I took a stop loss and layed Darcis 3,86€@2,2.

total loss this match: -0,94€

Formula 1 Fastest Lap:

Pre match I dutched Hamilton and Kovalainen to drive fastest lap. Both Ferraris had one-race old engines whilst both McLarens had fresh ones.

I could reduce liability inplay, but I did not win money:

Formula 1 Winner market:

I layed Massa 10€@1,38 before he was overtaken by Hamilton. See video below:

Later his odds where something like 1,5x or so. That was the point I should back him back, because Hamilton was driving very fast laps and that meant he was a 3 stopper. I realised that too late and took a small loss.

total loss this market: -0,30€

total loss today: -1,12€

total profit this week: +17,32€

total profit this month: +17,32€

I am not annoyed about today's trades. I took all stop losses and made only small losses. On the long run I will make profit.

Wish you good luck with trading!

Cheers, Loocie

How to stop doing silly trades?

Hello,

today I traded Formula 1 and Tennis. Trading Formula 1 was a nightmare. I did some really stupid trades and I lost -18,58€. I had no really strategy I want to apply. That was completely sh*t!

I also traded both semi finals of Qatar Telecom German Open 2008:

Dementieva v Ivanovic

I backed Ivanovic after losing 1st set 2-6. She made a lot of unforced errors and I was convinced she could improve in 2nd set. I think Ivanovic was leading 3-2 in 2nd set and I could reduce my liability. Ivanovic did not play constantly and so she lost the game 2-6, 5-7. Was not a bad trade, but ended in a loss.

total loss this match: -0,68€

Safina v Azarenka

I applied the tennis hedging strategy and the trade was successfully when Azarenka broke Safina and score was 2-1 for Azarenka. Later I could apply a free lay when Safina was leading 5-4 and Azarenka was serving. At this point in the match Safina had around 50% return points won. Safina won 1st set 6-4 and I could green up.

total profit this match: +7,66€

total loss today: -11,60€

total profit this week: +18,44€

total profit this month: +18,44€

I need to stop these silly trades. Trading tennis this month produced a profit of +37,02€ so far. It is a good result according to this little stakes I am using, so there is no need to risk money in markets I do not know very well.

I hope I can produce some profit in tomorrow's matches. Wish you all the best.

Cheers, Loocie

Steady profits

Hello,

today I traded the following matches:

A Bondarenko v Azarenka

I applied my tennis hedging strategy. Trade was successful during the 1st set.

total profit this match: +3,94€

On the following matches I applied a free lay:

Blake v Wawrinka

total loss this match: -1,36€ (liability 10€)

Safina v S Williams

total loss this match: -1,00€ (liability 10€)

 

Roddick v Robredo

Free lay worked very good. I layed Roddick 20€@1,54 when Robredo was leading 5-4 in second set and Roddick serving. I knew odds would return to 1,4x if Roddick holds his serve, but Robredo had around 40% return points won, so I was only risking 2€ loss (if I had taken the stop loss) to win more than 6€, if my free lay worked. It worked and I made a profit each way. This was the perfect exit point for me. If you are reading this blog regularly you have probably noticed that I have problems to close a trade in the right moment of a game. That is something I can improve.

total profit this match: +6,28€

Federer v Stepanek

That was a perfect example of over trading, see picture below:

I watched this match via Betfair video and I think I was chasing pictures. I was backing and laying all the time, but this is not my style of trading. But it is good to see, that I took the stop loss and so this match ended in a small loss.

total loss this match: -1,50€

total profit today: +6,36€

total profit this week: +30,40€

total profit this month: +30,40€

 

There was only one mistake today with the match Federer v Stepanek. The good thing is that I took all stop losses and did not let my losses run.

Also my self confidence on trading is growing and I hope I can go on tomorrow.

All the best,

Loocie

Trading this week

Hi,

as mentioned earlier this week I had not very much time to write about my trades.

I can not remember all trades and reasons why I entered the market. Had one great mistake when Peer was playing against Lisicki. Match did not develop as predicted and I did not take a stop loss. I put more money on Peer and so I lost more money.

In some matches I did not find the right moment to close my trades and make profit each way, so could have been more profit this week.

From now on I will track my weekly and monthly results. This will help me to see how profitable my trading is and maybe I can raise my stakes from time to time.

profit this week: +23,68€

profit this month: +23,68€

All the best, Loocie

Busy days at work

Hi,

I am really busy at work so I have not much time to trade and to write down my thoughts and trades. Will update later this week.

All the best, Loocie

Let's have a break

This will be the last post from me for the next three weeks. I will be on vacation and travel along the east cost of the United States. And you are not allowed to bet on betfair, while you are on the ground of the USA. Will see if I will follow this rule for three weeks...

Will be back right in time for the next great event, the next Grand Slam, the French Open in Paris.

 

Here some updates of the latest trades at the tournaments in Barcelona and Munich.

 

Gicquel - Bolelli Loss: 3,27€ (-100% ROI)

Brezicki - Cuevas Profit: 5,51€ (+45,92% ROI)

Luczak - Starace Profit: 2,00€ (+20% ROI)

Calleri - Nalbandian Profit: 4,47€ (+55,19% ROI)

Almagro - Volandri Profit: 4,20€ (+21% ROI)

Gabashvili - Canas Loss: 2,86€ (-57,2% ROI)

 

Wish you all to have a nice time and continue to read our blog and thank you for all your feedback during the last time.

 

Stay Lucky!

Muxor