Australian Open 2009 Day 3


today I traded the following matches:

Safina v Makarovasafina_makarovaPre match odds: Safina: 1.06, Makarova: 17.50
It was not good trading. I was every time one the wrong side, but the good thing was, that I recognized this and I scratched the trade. I decided to stay away from this match.

Safina v Makarova 6-7, 6-3, 6-0 

Dokic v Chakvetadze
dokic_chakvetadzePre match odds: Dokic: 1.55, Chakvetadze: 2.8
I expected this match to be a three setter with a little advantage for Dokic, because she played in front of the home crowed. Dokic won the first set 6-4, but I did not layed her, because stats of Chakvetadze were not that good.
When score was 6-5* and Chakvetadze was serving I applied a free lay (or free back) on Dokic Back 50€@1.36.
Here are the stats before this game:
dokic_chakvetadze_2nd_set_6_5_stats Odds would only move to 1.55, if Chakvetadze could hold her serve, so I was risking 5-6€ to gain 18€, if Dokic makes the break and wins the match. This in mind with 48% receiving points of Dokic, I think it was a good decision.
Chakvetadze won this service game relative easily with two points on second serve (stats showed, that she only won 1/7 points on 2nd serve during the 2nd set so far).
I made it each way red, when Chakvetadze equalized to 6-6 and did not gamble in the tie break.
It was a good trade, although I lost money.

Dokic v Chakvetadze 6-4, 6-7, 6-3

During the first three days I did not have a really good trade with a decent profit, but also I did not have a big loss so far.
Hopefully my patience pay off.

Stats so far:
Total loss today: -5.00
Total profit this month: +37.99

Cheers, Loocie


amorphous said...

You are a brave man!!!

Any time I even think about trading Safina or Chakvetadze I break out into a cold sweat!!!

Too many bad memories with those two!!!

Best of luck for Day 4!!

Loocie said...

Hi Amorphous,

Safina has improved during the last year. Now she is a reliable top 10 player.

My trade in the match Dokic v Chakvetadze was based on the numbers and I opposed Chaki :)

I have noticed you could create a decent profit on the matches last night, congratulation!

Best of luck for the next matches!

Cheers, Loocie