Hello,
it is day 4 of the Australian Open 2009. Again plenty of matches, but again I could not identify many trading opportunities. Many favourites won their matches in straight sets without big odds movements. There are also some favourites I fancied pre match to win, i.e. Gonzalez or Verdasco, but I do not want to put on a back bet pre match @1.15 or something else, especially not in a best of five match.
I identified a trading opportunity in the following match:
Schnyder v Razzano 
Pre match odds: Schnyder: 1.80, Razzano: 2.20
I fancied Razzano to take at least one set. I got a lay bet matched when score was 2-1* 40-15 and Schnyder was serving 20€@2.14, which is a back of Razzano @1.88. Razzano made the break and won the first set 6-3 and I made it each way. I am not sure, if it was again too early, maybe I cut my win again. I did not want to waste the profit at this time, but I know I need to improve my trading behaviour at such moments. What to do, if things go your way? Should I wait until Schnyder fights back? (She did not, but I am sure she would have done, if I let the trade open.) That’s a kind of prejudice: If I let the trade open, it will go against me and if I close the trade and make it each way, it will go straight to 1.01.
Maybe the question is not to let it run or close the trade, maybe the question is how you handle this in general. Jimmakos, the author of Jimmakos.com wrote a very interesting article about greening up in Betfair.
I am not a friend of a high variance in my bankroll, so greening up is essential for me. In the match above I made it each way, when the score was 5-3 and Schnyder was serving. Odds on Razzano were around 1.42. If she wins the set odds would move only to 1.35 (if Schnyder holds her serve), so I only would gain 7 more ticks. Razzano is not a very consistent player, so should I wait for this 7 ticks or should I lock in the profit?
Schnyder v Razzano 3-6, 1-6
Stats so far:
Total profit today: +7.92
Total profit this month: +45.91
Cheers, Loocie
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2 comments:
You could lay for half your back stake and leave the rest in the market as Schnyder had to serve first in the next set. If she went even 0-30 down she would have hit maybe 1.20 and if she got broken she'd have been even lower. Then, to make the bigger money you can lay Razzano for alot of money to see if she gets broken back. Hard not to take the money when it's there but if you make a profit early on in the match you can afford to take some good risks and guarantee you won't lose.
Good luck!
Hi Anonymous,
thanks for dropping by. You are right, with your advice I would have made something about 12€. Thanks for this advice. I will consider this during my next trades.
Cheers, Loocie
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