Adding Small Green Figures To The Pot

Hello,

not very much action these days so far. Just traded the Fastest Lap Market of the Bahrain Grand Prix at the weekend.

I also had a look at the Fed Cup matches, but I only got involved in the match Lisicki v Zheng. Again I had to scratch the trade, which created a small profit of 0.94.

It is near the end of the month and after last month’s awful result I am happy with the moderate profit of this month so far. The single month does not count. I need to look at the bigger picture:

 
I am well in front to achieve my goal of a net profit of 1000€ this year. I can achieve my goal easily with a net profit of 16% of my trading bank per month.

Sometimes it is important to have a look at your past result. It reminds you to keep focused and patient and it shows you what is possible with discipline and patience.

Stats so far:
Total profit since last update: +6.89
Total profit this month: +56.16

Cheers, Loocie

A Quick Update

Hello,

during the last few days I just got involved in the darts on Thursdays. I was very cautious and just put on a trade on the match Jenkins v King. I could not identify any good opportunities in the other matches, so I stayed away. I think my style of trading differs to other traders. Pre match I do not know if I will put on a trade or not, it depends on the situation in play. This means often I am watching a match without getting involved. Maybe this is a reason why I have problems with missing a trading opportunity.

It would be nice to hear other opinions about your style of trading. Maybe there are other ways of trading I am not aware of. Feel free to leave a comment.

Stats so far:
Total profit since last update: +10.45
Total profit this month: +49.27

Cheers, Loocie

Well Traded

Hello,

During this week I did not trade that much so far, because I was visiting my family.

Just today I traded the match Robredo v Andreev.
Andreev took the first set 6-4. When Robredo was leading 1-0 during the 2nd set I wanted to lay Andreev. Every bet I entered did not get matched, because the odds moved too fast for me. I missed the trading opportunity and Robredo was leading 2-0. In the past missing a trading opportunity was a common reason for me to chase a trade, to chase a possible profit and to create a disappointing loss. Today I realised the situation and I kept cool.

Sometimes it is important to become aware of something you made wrong in the past.

Writing down these thoughts will help me to be focused on this issue for the next matches.

No profit/loss figures today, just my thoughts on the match.

Cheers, Loocie

Mixed Bag

Hello,

the last few days have been very busy. Lot’s of stuff to do at work, so I could not trade that much.

Here is an overview of my trades since the last update:Trading tennis does not pay off these days for me. Mostly I have to take a stop loss or scratch the trade. I did not make mistakes, but I am still a little struggling, when trading tennis.

Trading darts produced also a loss, but this is not a problem. I was a little less cautious than last week, so my stop loss bet in the match Klaasen v King was not matched. Starting the trading day with a loss does not raise your self confidence, so I was too cautious in the following matches. I will do better next week.

I also tried to trade the horses, especially the place market. I recognized some patterns in the place market and traded this market with a long term view, no scalping. I will have a look at this in the future.

Trading Formula 1 was really great this weekend. Generally I only have a look at the Fastest Lap Market, but today it was quite difficult. I was very cautious and could not identify a good opportunity, so I stayed away.
Pre race it was raining heavily, so it was quite possible to have a start behind the safety car. I watched the TV coverage closely and as they said we will have a race start behind the safety car I backed a safety car appearance in the Safety Car? Market. I got matched 60€@1.42. Really great! The same happened last year during a race. That’s what I call free money :)

My laying the horses project is still on a good run. Since the last blog update I selected 4/4 losers, which is really great. At the moment the selections produce the following stats:

Number of selections: 20
Number of horses won: 3
Number of horses lost: 17
Strike rate: 85%
Average lay odds: 3.56
Average lay odds of horse won: 2.94

If I can keep the average lay odds of horses which won below 3.56, then I need a strike rate of 72% to break even. Everything above means profit. I know I need more data to see if it could be profitable on the long term, so let’s see how it goes during the next weeks. I will update stats in the future here on the blog.

That’s it for now. At the moment I am visiting my family, so I will not trade that much during the next few days.

Stay lucky!

Stats so far:
Total profit since last update: +8.82
Total profit this month: +38.82

Cheers, Loocie

First Dabble On Trading On Darts

Hello,

This week I started trading on darts with real money. I traded all the matches with €11 stakes, so the profit is ok. It is a very fast sport, so you need to take the odds as fast as possible. Tick chasing can cost you money.

I also traded the tennis match S Williams v Zakopalova, but had to scratch it and made +0.22 on this match. The same yesterday with Errani v Medina Garrigues. Had to scratch my trade, because I had connection problems. Made +0.10 on this match.

Stats so far:
Total profit since last update: +18.99
Total profit this month: +30.00

Cheers, Loocie

Fixed Odds

Hello,

At the moment there are many rumours about match fixing in tennis. During this week a match between both Bondarenko sisters took place. Here is a screenshot a user from the Betfair forum made:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Starting odds:
K. Bondarenko: 2.20
A. Bondarenko: 1.82

I think you do not need to be an expert of trading on tennis. Kateryna was one set in front, but Alona was heavy favourite? Really strange. I did not trade the match. I also do not trade matches, when Serena Williams plays against her sister Venus Williams. It is a lottery. There are other good matches, so no need to waste your time and money on matches like this.

I also do not understand why people complain about match fixing. If there is something wrong or something seems to be too obvious, just stay away.

I want to make clear, that I am not a fan of match fixing, but I think nobody should complain, when putting on trades on matches like this. Even if you entered and you recognize a strange odds movement just make it each way and stay away.

Cheers, Loocie

Roundup

Hello,

at the moment I do not update the blog very often, because I have not very much to write about.

This week four tennis tournaments take place, but I think I will not put on many trades. It is a week before the next big tournaments and the clay season has just started. Many players need to adjust on clay. I will have a look at the matches, but I will only get involved, if I can identify a really good opportunity. Last month was a very good example for losing discipline and patience. I do not want to repeat this anymore.

At the last weekend I traded the Formula 1 GP of Malaysia.
I concentrated on the Fastest Lap Market and could produce a decent profit. When the race was suspended I put on a small lay of Button in the winner market, because the odds would move dramatically, if the race would be restarted. It does not happen, so I lost a small amount. Not dramatically, I think I would do it again in such a situation.

These days I take the time to learn more about the psychological aspect of trading. Anthony, a regular reader of the blog posted a link to Peter Webb’s blog about gratification and how people handle their need for gratification.

I think I am a person who wants to have instant gratification, that might be a reason why I sometimes cut my winnings and why I try to force trades. A really bad habit.

The first step of improving your trading is to get a knowledge about the psychological aspects of trading. You need to know about the existence of some subjects like instant gratification versus deferred gratification, etc.
The second step is to identify your own behaviour and habits. How does your behaviour and habits affect your trading?
The third step might be to change your behaviour in certain situations to avoid psychological traps.
I think I need to read more books like “Mindset: The New Psychology of Success”. If anyone can recommend some lecture feel free to leave a comment.

I mentioned earlier that I will have a look at trading on darts. At the moment I am watching the matches and how the odds move. It is a fast sport, so every second you wait for taking a stop loss will cost you money. Therefore I need to be prepared before putting on a trade.

Today we will have another show on WUBT radio with Peter Webb live. During the last shows some people presented their horse racing systems and tipster services. In 2007 I tried to develop a horse laying system too. The idea was to identify false favourites. The problem with this laying system was, that I tried to lay favourites in too many races with too high odds. So I looked through my data and recognized that it could be profitable when taking the odds as a selection criterion too. That leads to less selections, but that is not a problem. You need a good strike rate depending on your average winning odds. I am making my selections on paper (I write them into an Excel sheet; just want to say I do not place bets with real money) and at the moment the system is in profit. First step is to collect as many data I can to get a long term view on the system. Maybe it will fail, maybe it will just work during different periods of the year. If I have 100 selections in my Excel sheet I will publish the result here on the blog. Then we might have a first clue in which direction the system will move.

That was a roundup about the last few days of trading. I can recommend today’s show on WUBT radio, I am sure it will be great fun again.

Stats so far:
Total profit since last update: +11.01
Total profit this month: +11.01

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis Of March 2009

Hi,

March is over, so it is time to do the analysis. If you follow the blog regularly you have even noticed, that March was an awful trading month for me. It was the first time I took a timeout from trading, because my mindset was completely broken.

Let’s have a look at the result of March: I just wanted to watch some horse races via Betfair Live Video, so I had to place a bet to have the pictures available.

Trading tennis started really well with a huge profit on set betting. Trading during the first week of Indian Wells was not that easy. I had many scratched trades, because liquidity was not good enough and the scoreboard was not reliable. This first week was a good test for my discipline in trading, but sadly the test failed. If there is no opportunity, then stay away.

When trading tennis in March sometimes I was not totally focused on the matches. I did several other things too, so my concentration was not completely focused on the matches. That’s something I can easily avoid, so no MSN or Skype anymore when trading.

The only good decision I made during March was to take timeout. I little bit too late I think, but I made this decision and I am pretty sure this helped me to avoid a bigger loss.

Let’s have a look at the new stake sizes: For the first few trades I will use half of my stake sizes to get my confidence back.

The question is how to avoid such a losing run in the future? Maybe it is just experience. Hopefully this month’s experience help me to take a timeout earlier, if I have a similar situation in the future or it helps me to avoid such a losing run caused by impatience, because I have experienced that forcing trades and losing your discipline minimizes your trading bank and more important it destroys your self confidence.

Overall stats:
Year 2008: +€156.48
January 2009: +€28.39
February 2009: +€111.52
March 2009: –€22.55

Cheers, Loocie