at the moment I do not update the blog very often, because I have not very much to write about.

This week four tennis tournaments take place, but I think I will not put on many trades. It is a week before the next big tournaments and the clay season has just started. Many players need to adjust on clay. I will have a look at the matches, but I will only get involved, if I can identify a really good opportunity. Last month was a very good example for losing discipline and patience. I do not want to repeat this anymore.

At the last weekend I traded the Formula 1 GP of Malaysia.
f1I concentrated on the Fastest Lap Market and could produce a decent profit. When the race was suspended I put on a small lay of Button in the winner market, because the odds would move dramatically, if the race would be restarted. It does not happen, so I lost a small amount. Not dramatically, I think I would do it again in such a situation.

These days I take the time to learn more about the psychological aspect of trading. Anthony, a regular reader of the blog posted a link to Peter Webb’s blog about gratification and how people handle their need for gratification.

I think I am a person who wants to have instant gratification, that might be a reason why I sometimes cut my winnings and why I try to force trades. A really bad habit.

The first step of improving your trading is to get a knowledge about the psychological aspects of trading. You need to know about the existence of some subjects like instant gratification versus deferred gratification, etc.
The second step is to identify your own behaviour and habits. How does your behaviour and habits affect your trading?
The third step might be to change your behaviour in certain situations to avoid psychological traps.
I think I need to read more books like “Mindset: The New Psychology of Success”. If anyone can recommend some lecture feel free to leave a comment.

I mentioned earlier that I will have a look at trading on darts. At the moment I am watching the matches and how the odds move. It is a fast sport, so every second you wait for taking a stop loss will cost you money. Therefore I need to be prepared before putting on a trade.

Today we will have another show on WUBT radio with Peter Webb live. During the last shows some people presented their horse racing systems and tipster services. In 2007 I tried to develop a horse laying system too. The idea was to identify false favourites. The problem with this laying system was, that I tried to lay favourites in too many races with too high odds. So I looked through my data and recognized that it could be profitable when taking the odds as a selection criterion too. That leads to less selections, but that is not a problem. You need a good strike rate depending on your average winning odds. I am making my selections on paper (I write them into an Excel sheet; just want to say I do not place bets with real money) and at the moment the system is in profit. First step is to collect as many data I can to get a long term view on the system. Maybe it will fail, maybe it will just work during different periods of the year. If I have 100 selections in my Excel sheet I will publish the result here on the blog. Then we might have a first clue in which direction the system will move.

That was a roundup about the last few days of trading. I can recommend today’s show on WUBT radio, I am sure it will be great fun again.

Stats so far:
Total profit since last update: +11.01
Total profit this month: +11.01

Cheers, Loocie


John said...

Hi Loocie, looks like you followed the same train of thought as me on the F1. A lot of people were backing him because it looked like the race would not start again, thinking it was free money – I didn’t want to take that risk because you never know what decision the FIA will take. I layed Button just in case the race would start again – he would probably still have won it but there’s no way the odds would have stayed that low so I was confident it was the right choice.
All the best, John.

Loocie said...

Hi John,

thanks for dropping by. Yeah, we made the same decision, but I hope you could make a decent profit over the race weekend.

Cheers, Loocie