Trading Soccer And American Football

Hello,

here is an overview of my last trades:

Trading Soccer

Bielefeld v Leverkusen

Pre match odds: Bielefeld 5.3, Leverkusen 1.75, Draw 4.1

I watched this match live and fancied Leverkusen to win. Score after the first half was still 0-0 and Bielefeld was really good defending. At the 50th minute I layed Leverkusen 10€@2.04 because at this time the odds should be something around 2.1-2.2 and Leverkusen could not create very much pressure on Bielefeld's defence. Three minutes later Bielefeld scored and I could make it each way.

Bielefeld v Leverkusen 2-1

I traded also Aachen v Osnabruck (0.00) and Karlsruhe v Dortmund (+0.27), but I scratched both trades.

Total profit trading soccer: +6.26

Trading American Football

NY Jets @ Tennessee

Pre match odds: NY Jets: 2.98, Tennessee: 1.5

I watched this match live on NASN. As mentioned earlier I am not happy about my trading of American Football. During this match I tried to anticipate the odds and if there is a significant difference between my predicted odds and the actual odds then I would put on a trade. I used a stake size of 10€. I was really surprised about the odds I got matched. I think there were some people betting (or trading) on this match without watching it. Within seconds I got matched odds less then evens on both sides!

I also wanted to trade the match Giants @ Arizona, but NASN had problems and I did not have live pictures, so I skipped that.

NY Jets 34 @ Tennessee 13

Stats so far:
Total profit since last update: +15.76
Total profit this month: +51.36

It has been quiet days on the trading front for me, so I could read some articles and books about trading in general. I found the web site http://www.tradingpsychology1.com/ and it seems really interesting stuff.

A year ago I was also one of these "Wannabe"-Traders who asked many people about their way of trading and mostly I got the answer "Study the market and learn to be disciplined and patient!". That was not my desired answer, but now I think I have a small clue, why this answer is the best advice I could get, because:

• When trading you need to know how the market reacts,
• You need to know which style of trades suits yourself
• And you need to learn that trading is hard work.

Finally, I also think you need experience when trading. Nobody can tell you something which makes you experienced like a professional trader, you need to make experiences by yourself.

That's it for now. I wish you all the best.

Cheers, Loocie

You Can Count On An English Goalkeeper

Hello,

what to say about the friendly match Germany v England? Germany did not play well and lost against a good playing English team.

Score was 0-1 and I layed England. I was waiting for Germany to start playing football, but they did not. They can do really better! I was preparing the hedge bet to take an each way loss, but then the desired goal was scored. Here a quote from sporting-life.com live ticker:

"63: GOAL HELMES (1-1)!!! Seconds after Bent misses a sitter at one end, Germany break and a horrendous moment of Chuckle Brothers 'to me-to you' between Terry and Carson sees Helmes sneak in to equalise."

It was not a good game to watch: Many mistakes and the wrong final result ;)

From a trading perspective it was a good game and I have a nice profit (53% ROI).

Germany v England 1-2

Stats so far:
Total profit since last update: +5.36
Total profit this month: +35.60

Cheers, Loocie

Roundup Of The Weekend

Hello,

during the last few days I made the following trades:

Trading Tennis

I am happy to have a profit in the last trade of the year. I was very disciplined and patient, although I missed a trading opportunity.

Total Profit Tennis: +5.72

Trading Soccer

In the match Koblenz v Mainz I was a little bit lucky. I backed Mainz right before a corner kick and they scored. Mainz was the better team and they put very much pressure on Koblenz' defence.

Total Profit Soccer: +6.11

Trading American Football

Trading NFL games does not work as expected. Often I have a profit each way and a fumble or an interception occurs and all the profit is gone. Yesterday in the match Chargers v Steelers I recognized that I am mixing my trading style. Generally I like it to take long positions, because it is not so hectic like taking short positions and you do not rely so much on a fast Internet connection and fast pictures on TV. When Trading American Football I am mixing taking long positions and taking short positions. Very often I take a long position and then I change my mind about the game and make this position to a short position. I think I have to work out a cheat sheet for Trading American Football like I did it for Trading Tennis.

Total Loss American Football: -0.38

The next weeks will be very quiet. Mostly I will trade at the weekend (Soccer and American Football), maybe some handball too.

During the last week I read that WUBT Radio is back. When You Bet Today radio show is hosted by “Man of Mystery”, who is running a betting bot and in his radio show he interviews some people from the betting front. Some of the interviews are available as podcast. I like to listen to his radio shows. It is very interesting to hear about people who are also involved in trading or betting.

Stats so far:
Total profit since last update: +11.45
Total profit this month: +30.24

All the best!

Cheers, Loocie

Quiet Days

Hello,

it has been quiet on the trading front during the last days. Tennis season is nearly over, so I can take this time to have a look in other sports.

I had two trades during the last few days:

Trading Tennis

Trading Handball

 

It is the 2nd time I was involved in trading handball. This match was televised via Eurosport and I watched the odds during the match. Liquidity is not very great, but this can also be a chance to get odds matched you do not get matched, if the liability is good.

What can I expect from the rest of the trading year? Well, I will have a look in soccer, nfl and handball. I do not expect many trades, because I only will put on a trade, if there is a really good opportunity.

I will also take this time to prepare for the tennis season next year. I will create an online database to save all my notes and comments about players and matches. I think I also have to analyse the play of each tennis player. Some of them are good servers others are good return players, some play only ground line strokes and others attack from the net, etc. It is also important to know under which weather conditions a tennis match takes place and which players have problems with it, e.g. Dinara Safina has problems with windy conditions.

That's it for now. I wish you all good luck with trading!

Stats so far:
total profit this month: +18.79

Cheers, Loocie

Semifinals WTA Championship 2008

Hello,

today I traded the following matches:

Zvonareva v Dementieva

Pre match odds: Zvonareva: 1.75, Dementieva: 2.34

As mentioned in my preview I could not understand why Zvonareva was favourite pre match.

I layed Zvonareva pre match @1.87.

Zvonareva started to serve and when Dementieva had her 1st break point in the first game I minimized risk with a Lay of Dementieva 10€@1.7. Later during the 1st set I had some further trades and I made it each way to have a profit of +7.72. Zvonareva won 1st set 7-6 and odds on her were around 1.4. According to her pre match odds it was too high to lay her, so I stopped trading and enjoyed the match.

My pre match prediction did not come true, but from a trading perspective it was a good decision to lay Zvonareva pre match. During the first set you could have traded out easily with a Lay on Dementieva @1.4.

Zvonareva v Dementieva 7-6, 3-6, 6-3

Jankovic v V Williams

Pre match odds: Jankovic: 2.3, V Williams: 1.77

I layed V Williams after winning 1st set 6-2 @1.20. When Jankovic started serving in 2nd set and score was *0-40 I got nervous and took a stop loss @1.08. What a mistake! Odds would not move very much lower than 1.08 if she lose the first game, so there was no need to take a stop loss at this moment. I recognized the mistake very soon and layed V Williams again, when score was 40-40 in the first game.

JJ fought back and was leading 3-0 in the 2nd set and odds raised to 1.56 on V Williams. I made it each way and accepted the mistake I made with taking the stop loss during the first game.

Jankovic v V Williams 2-6, 6-2, 3-6

Total profit today: +7.82
Total profit this month: +20.69

I am really happy with my tennis trading these days. Hopefully I can keep up this good performance during the next week.

Cheers, Loocie

My First Previews

Hello,

here is an overview of my last trades:

Trading Tennis

Petrova v Dementieva

Pre match odds: Petrova 4.1, Dementieva 1.33

Pre match odds were really wrong. I expected Dementieva @1.6-1.7 so I layed her pre match @1.33. Petrova started to serve and score was 0-30 and odds around 1.17. If she lose the set by one break odds would have been 1.14, so I layed Dementieva again @1.17. Petrova won her 1st serve game and also got the lead in the first set with 3-0. Odds on Dementieva raised to 1.8 and I made it each way @1.77, because she was only leading with one break and odds on Dementieva would have been around 2.1x if she lose the first set. Dementieva equalised and odds shortened to 1.33 again. Good decision to make it each way!

Petrova v Dementieva 4-6, 6-4, 4-6

Total profit tennis: +11.83

Trading Soccer

I scratched the trade in the match Koeln v Hannover. In the match Wehen v Kaiserslautern I had a small red each way, when score was still 0-0, but I was very confident about a goal appearance so I layed the draw to have a red on the draw and a small profit on every team. Final score was 4-2, so I made no loss.

Total profit soccer: +0.11

Total profit this month: +12.87

Today I will do my first preview of Tennis matches on this blog:

Zvonareva v Dementieva

Elena Dementieva is leading the H2H statistic 4-2 and on hard court she leads 3-0. Both players are in a good shape. Zvonareva plays her best tennis these days, so I expect a close match and I am sure this can be a classic 3 setter.

I will lay the winner of the first set, if inplay statistics indicate a close match. I also fancy Dementieva to win and I am really surprised about the pre match odds: Zvonareva 1.86, Dementieva 2.14.

The victory of Zvonareva over Jankovic is overestimated, so maybe this could be a reason for this odds.

Pre match I layed Zvonareva 17€@1.87.

My prediction: Zvonareva v Dementieva 1-2

Jankovic v V Williams

Jankovic leads the H2H 5-3, but on hard court Venus Williams leads 2-0. Jankovic had an injury timeout and a treatment during her last match, but I do not want to give her injury too much attention, because in every tournament she has injury timeouts. I expect again a 3 setter, but I only want to get involved, if statistics indicating a close match.

My prediction: Jankovic v V Williams 2-1

That's it for now. I will update later this evening.

Cheers, Loocie

Tennis, Soccer And Formula 1

Hello,

here is an overview of my last trades:

Trading Tennis

Everything worked fine except one match:

Ivanovic v Zvonareva
I applied a different approach to my regular trading. Generally I am looking for long positions during a tennis match, but in this match I was looking for short positions. I traded this match with my regular stake sizes and that was a mistake. My maximum liability raised to 50€ during the match and I am very happy that I could avoid a loss. When trying other strategies then only do paper trading or at least trade with small stakes.

When I remember my feelings during this match, than I have to say I was too nervous. I can not trade with such a hectic pace. Short position trading does not suit my style. That is also a reason why trading the horses pre-race does not work for me.

Total profit tennis: +11.78

Trading Soccer

A scratched trade and a heavy loss.

Kaiserslautern v 1860 Munich
Pre match I fancied Kaiserslautern to win, if they put pressure on the defence of 1860 Munich. They did, but they could not create a really good chance to score. I took a stop loss and had a loss of €2 each way. Score was still 0:0. That was the time I should have stopped trading this match. During the second half I layed the draw in the hope (hope is not good for trading) for a goal. The final score was 0:0 and I lost -11.46€ on this match.

Total loss soccer: -11.22

Trading Formula 1

Generally I only trade the fastest lap market. But I should have an eye on the safety car market as well. If you have quick fingers you can make decent profits. I think there was a collision at the start of race and if you are a little experienced in watching Formula 1 you could see that there was a very high probability of a safety car appearance. I will investigate this in the next season.

Trading the fastest lap market was quite difficult for me. This race was similar to the Italian GP where I lost over €70. Wet conditions at the start of the race and they changed to dry conditions during the race so we could see many different fastest lap leaders. I learned from my mistake in the Italian GP and had only a small profit from the last Grand Prix of 2008.

Hamilton won the driver championship and I think he deserved the title.

Total profit Formula 1: +0.37

I am really happy about my tennis trading. Hopefully I can keep up this performance.

Total profit this month: +0.93

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis Of October 2008

Hello,

another month is over, so it is time to analyse the trades of the last month.

Trading Tennis

number of matches I traded: 64
number of wins: 38
number of losses: 25
scratched trades: 1

number of wins > 3€: 21
number of losses > 3€: 18

total win: +140.10
total loss: -143.89 
total pl: -3.79

average win: +3.69
average loss: -5.76
average pl: -0.06

win rate: 60%
max win: +11.64
max loss: -18.05

What was bad this month:

As mentioned in the last blog entry I am cutting my winnings more than my losses.

I traded too many matches. I have certain situations where I put on a trade depending on the score, but in future I have to consider the odds at the given situation too.

What was good this month:

The new money management rules which I established after my analysis of September 2008 helped my to trade without fear.

Mostly I took stop losses when necessary.

I planned every match I traded.

Trading Soccer

number of matches I traded: 14
number of wins: 7
number of losses: 5
scratched trades: 2

number of wins > 3€: 6
number of losses > 3€: 2

total win: +42.28
total loss: -10.71
total pl: +31.57

average win: +6.04
average loss: -2.14
average pl: +2.26

win rate: 58%
max win: +21.85
max loss: -4.26

Most of the profit came from the match Bochum v Hoffenheim. During this month I was very patient when trading soccer. I know there are only a few key events during a match so it is essential to keep a clear head and being patient.

Trading other sports

Formula 1 +4.19
NFL -6.96

Overall stats:

October 08: +€38.35
September 08: -€11.57
August 08: -€7.74
July 08: +€29.10
June 08: +€25.90
May 08: +€1.36
April 08: +€25.27
March 08: +€3.08

Cheers, Loocie