Lay low, back high

Today was not a bad day. I traded the following matches:

Davydenko v Bolelli

Similar trade to Muxor:

Zheng v Jankovic

Zheng was leading 4-3 and Jankovic was serving (score 0-30). I backed Jankovic 10€@1,7 and layed off later to minimize risk.

Kuznetsova v Peer

 

Lisicki v Dementieva

Layed Dementieva pre match 33,33€@1,3 for a liability of 10€. Match did not develope like predicted, so did some stop loss trades.

These trades produced a total profit of 9,83€. Maybe i will have a look at the match Sugiyama v Zvonareva later.

Today we had 2 upsets with Safina beating Davenport and Benneteau beating Tsonga. Both wins in straight sets.

If you layed all these favourites pre match you would have won 81,00€.
In my opinion you need to follow a trading plan with a stop loss. So cut your losses and let your winnings run. I will investigate this in further matches.

All the best, Loocie

The internet is for...

Today, on day six of the Sony Ericsson Open, I made the following trades.

First we started to try Loocies new strategy in laying favs around 1.3.

Started with the match:

Nicolay Davydenko - Simone Bolelli

Layed Davydenk prematch and greened up after him loosing the first set.

Bets for the match:

Lay Davydenko 35€ @ 1.31

Back Davydenko 15€ @ 1.90

Back Davydenko 5€ @ 1.99

Profit: 7,60€ (+70,37% ROI)

 

Bolelli didn't use his chances in second set.

Result: Davydenko won 6-7, 7-5, 6-1

 

Update 1 and second match to cover:

Svetlana Kuznetsova - Shahar Peer

Backed Kuznetsova prematch and layed out half of the risk after she won the first ste in tiebreak. I expected her to win first set easier, so I took a higher odd to lay. When she was leading in second set I greened up.

Result: Kuznetsova won 7-6, 6-3

Bets for the match:

Back Kuznetsova 10€ @ 1.58

Lay Kuznetsova 5€ @ 1.25

Lay Kuznetsova 5€ @ 1.05

Lay Kuznetsova 4€ @ 1.01

Profit: 4,26€ (+42,6% ROI)

Update 2:

Had to suffer one major loss in the match

Sabine Lisicki - Elena Dementieva

Layed Lisicki after loosing the first set and after beeing braked in second set. Thought she could make second set tighter... Wrong though, wrong decission.

Result: Dementieva won 6-3, 6-2

Lay Dementieva 100€ @ 1.1

Lay Dementieva 180€ @ 1.05

Loss: 19€ (-100% ROI)

Update 3:

Last match for me today

Mikhail Youzhny - Nicolas Almagro

Backed Youzhny when leading 1-0. He went straight forward to 4-0, but then chocked and could only win first se in tiebreak. Lucky me. Layed him after winning the set.

Bets for the match:

Back Youzhny 20€ @ 1.55

Back Youzhny 10€ @ 1.36

Lay Youzhny 10€ @ 1.29

Lay Youzhny 20€ @ 1.25

Lay Youzhny 3.53 @ 1.81

Profit: 3,84€ (+12,8% ROI)

Players still on court. Try to make winning each way now as soon as possible. 

As this match is completely open and unpredictable right now, I decided to take at least the now possible 10% ROI each way and leave it till the end. Youzhny also seems to have an injury on his shoulder.

In a very close tiebreak, Youzhny could save the victory after Lamagro was already serving for the match, leadin 5-4.

I am still confident with my decission to make winning each way also at high odds, as both players could have won this match.

Result: Youzhny won 7-6, 3-6, 7-6

 

So the day was not so profitable like the last two days. Leaving a small loss of about 4,50. But if everyday would work like the last two days, i could quit my dayjob. So looking forward to the next matches.

Sain bisu,

Muxor

Trading women's tennis

Hello,

Muxor had a good trading day yesterday. I had not much time for trading so i traded only one match:

Ai Sugiyama - Daniela Hantuchova


I layed Sugiyama 200€@1,05 and backed 100€@1,1 when Sugiyama was leading 5-2 and serving for match in 2nd set. I backed her again 80€@1,24.
When leading 5-4 and serving for match again i layed her 100€@1,05 and backed 50€@1,1. I was tired and went to bed and hoped Hantuchova could win 3rd set. She did not.

I am also very surprised about the loss of Ana Ivanovic. Davenport retired her last match against Jankovic and Ivanovic had a really good run.

Yesterday we had some big upsets:

This table shows yesterday's matches. Favorites are underlined. We see the odds of the favorite pre match. If you only layed them with 100€ you could have made a decent profit of 179,00€.

There was no favorite winning his match in straight sets, so from trading view, it was possible to trade the matches without loosing money in any match.

I will follow matches with pre match favorite's odds arround 1,25-1,4 and will discuss my thoughts in later posts.

Today i will have a look at these matches:

• Davydenko v Bolelli 1,29
• Tsonga v Benneteau 1,30

Favorites in bold letters.

I stopped my pre match selections to rethink about my way to select matches and possible winners. Maybe come back later.

All the best,

Loocie

Bienvenido a Miami

Gooooooood Morning Miami. Day 5 of the Sony Ericsson Open and we will see if we can hold the performance of yesterday.

First match of the day

Svetlana Kuznetsova - Victoria Azarenka

Backed Kuznetsova when being breaked early in set one. Backed more after she lost first set. And more when being breaked in set 2. Layed out when rebreaking in set 2 and winning set 2. Making each way, when leading in set 3.

Azarenka was leading 5-3, A-40 at own serve with match point. She didn't use this matchpoint and didn't win one game afterwards.

Result: Kuznetsova won 1-6, 7-5, 6-0

Bets for the match:

Back Kuznetsova 10€ @ 1.59

Back Kuznetsova 5€ @ 2.00

Lay Azarenka 40€ @ 1.22

Back Azarenka 20€ @ 1.5

Lay Kuznetsova 5€ @ 1.56

Lay Kuznetsova 8€ @ 1.50

Lay Kuznetsova 20€ @ 1.09

Profit: 22,30€ (+77,45% ROI)

 

 

Like yesterday I will update this post with the coverage of the day.

 

Update 1:

Sybille Bammer - Dinara Safina

Layed Bammer when breaking Safina and after winning the first set. Took out some risk after Safina winning second set and made each way during third set.

Result: Safina won 4-6, 6-1, 6-0

Bets for the match:

Lay Bammer 5€ @ 1.8

Lay Bammer 8,58€ @ 1.5 (didn't get matched full order of 10€)

Lay Safina 5€ @ 1.52

Lay Safina 5€ @ 1.1

Lay Safina 8€ @ 1.01

Profit: 10,40€ (+125,45% ROI)

 

Update 2:

One little and one big upset. Firs the little one.

Amelie Mauresmo - Jie Zheng

Backe Mauresmo prematch, seeing her as clear fav with good value. Hoped for big start to lay out and take profit if she chokes at low odds. Didn't do as planed... so no profit.

Result: Zheng won 5-7, 6-4, 6-4

Bets for the match:

Back Mauresmo 15€ @ 1.66

Lay Mauresmo 10€ @ 1.3

Lay Mauresmo 5€ @ 1.1

Profit: 0,0€ (+0,00% ROI)

 

Lindsay Davenport - Ana Ivanovic

What should I say? Ana, what was that???

Result: Davenport won 6-4, 6-2

Bets for the match:

Back Ivanovic 15€ @ 1.4

Back Ivanovic 5€ @ 1.84

Loss: -20€ (-100% ROI)

 

Update 3:

Ai Sugiyama - Daniela Hantuchova

I backed Hantuchova when being breaked and after loosing first set. Took out risk after she won a very close tiebreak in second set and had only very small profit. Seeing the only way in making big profit in laying her at low odds when leading 3-0 in third set. So I risked the already sure profit and Sugiyama fought back and won the match.

Result: (after more then 3 hours) Sugiyama won 6-4, 6-7, 7-5

Bets for the match:

Back Hantuchova 10€ @ 1.4

Back Hantuchova 5€ @ 1.74

Lay Hantuchova 5€ @ 1.45

Lay Hantuchova 5€ @ 1.40

Lay Hantuchova 5€ @ 1.1

Lay Hanuchova 20€ @ 1.03

Lay Hantuchova 40€ @ 1.04

Back Hantuchova 20€ @ 1.08

Back Hantuchova 10€ @ 1.49

Back Hantuchova 5€ @ 2.00

Profit: +25,00€ (+166,67% ROI)

 

Nos vemos después,

Muxor

What a disappointing day

I had a very disappointing day. Here an overview of my results:
I stuck to my plan but there where many upsets and the day produced a big loss of 32,37€ according to my stakes.

Benneteau v Karlovic 3-6, 6-4, 7-6
Sela v Robredo 7-6, 6-1
Chela v Minar 3-6, 7-5, 3-6
Ancic v Murray 6-2, 2-6, 7-6
Soderling v Wawrinka 3-6, 6-4, 6-3
Lisicki v Koryttseva 6-1, 7-5
Garbin v Bammer 2-6, 2-6
Petrova v Zheng Petrova retired bet void
Knapp v Safarova 6-3, 5-7, 0-6
Schiavone v Cibulkova 6-3, 4-6, 4-6
Sugiyama v M. Garrigues 6-2, 6-3
Peng v Mauresmo 4-6, 6-4, 6-7

won: 19
lost: 11
strike rate: 63,33%
avg win odds: 1,64
profit: -4,13€

How to chill at work

Miami - The Day After

We will see how the tennis circuit will react to the next top seeded player going home early. The madness in march continues in the world of the little yellow balls.

First match traded today was

Sabine Lisicki - Mariya Koryttseva

I backed Lisicki after the first point at 1.8 with 40€, as 1.6 was the real odd and when odds jumped back to 1.6 i layed 20 out. So i had position like backing at 2.0. So the real risk for calculations of this trade should be 20€.

Bets for the match:

Back Lisicki 40€ @ 1.8

Lay Lisicki 20€ @ 1.6

Back Lisicki 10€ @ 1.42

Lay Lisicki 10€ @ 1.2

Lay Lisicki 20€ @ 1.1

Lay Lisicki 20€ @ 1.01

Profit: 20€  (+50% ROI)

I will update this post during the day, when other trades follow.

 

Update 1:

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Jürgen Melzer

I backed Melzer when he had set points in tiebreak of first set. As expexted he won the set. I layed him when he had breakball in second set. So far he didn't break. Players still on court... open end.

Bets so far:

Back Melzer 10€ @ 1.8

Lay Melzer 10€ @ 1.4

Tsonga got it together, so no profit in this match. But well played of Melzer. Better then expected.

Profit: +0,00€  (0% ROI)

Update 2:

Safina - Wozniak

Tried to lay Dinara Safina at low odds and take out risk at double odds, but didn't work. But Safina is always worth a try.

Bets for the match:

Lay Safina 100€ @ 1.04

Loss: 4€ (-100% ROI)

 

Ai Sugiyama - Anabel Medina Garrigues

Went into match during second set. Layed Sugiyama after winning her service and backed Sugiyama after Garigues winning her service game with full risk then on Garrigues. Layed out after Sugiyama breaking.

Bets for the match:

Lay Sugiyama 20€ @ 1.46

Back Sugiyama 30€ @ 1.68

Lay Sugiyama 10€ @ 1.1

Profit: 10,20€  (+102% ROI)

 

Update 3:

Victor Troicki - Andy Roddick

Backed Roddick when Troicki was leading 6-5 in first set. Prediction was Roddick to win first set. So took a stop loss after Troicki winning the set and leavin minimal profit on Roddick. He managed to win in three sets, so luck for me not to loose.

Bets for the match:

Back Roddick 10€ @ 1.32

Back Roddick 5€ @1.51

Lay Roddick 7€ @ 1.63

Profit: 1,34€  (+8,93% ROI)

 

Amelie Mauresmo - Shuai Peng

Backed Mauresmo when winning second set comfortably. But like always Mauresmo couldn't even use a leading in third set and needed the Tiebreak to win lucky.

Bets for the match:

Back Mauresmo 10€ @ 1.55

Lay Mauresmo 10€ @ 1.1

Profit: 4,50€  (+45% ROI)

 

Update 4:

Andy Murray - Mario Ancic

Backed Murray after loosing the first set. Risk was killed after Murray wining the second set and winning was made nearly each way, when Murray breaked Ancic in third set.

Bets for the match:

Lay Ancic 20€ @ 1.49

Lay Murray 9€ @ 1.61

Lay Murray 1€ @ 1.58

Lay Murray 10€ @ 1.12

Profit: 10,20€  (+104,1% ROI)

 

Update 5:

Had a great day so far, but killed good mood with a silly decission. Decided to back Wawrinka at quite low odds, when he was having break points in second set, as Soderling didn't have any breakpoint during the whole match so far. But Wawrinka chocked like always... Killed some of the nice profit of the day.

Stanislas Wawrinka - Robin Soderling

Bets for the match:

Back Wawrinka 10€ @ 1.36

Loss: 10€ (-100% ROI)

 

So long,

Muxor

24h of Ups and Downs

During last 24 hours i made many trades... too many. All in all it was resulting in a loss. 3 trades went into major losses. That is too much. Have to change that. I will only provide the profit on each game, as there are too many trades to list them all.

Wozniak - Rezai

Loss: 30€ (-100% ROI)

Kunitsyn - Johansson

Profit: 13,40€ (+67% ROI)

Razzano - Hakleroad

Loss:16€ (-100% ROI)

Dechy - Peer

Loss: 28€ (-100% ROI)

Vesnina - Szavay

Profit: 5,6€ (+28% ROI)

Kuznetsova - Chan

Profit: 5,80€ (+29% ROI)

Penneta - Rodionova

Profit: 10,01€ (+48% ROI)

Errani - Kirilenko

Profit: 0,00€ (+0% ROI)

Bartoli - Wozniacki

Profit: 0,89€ (+17,8% ROI)

Anderson - Djokovich

Loss: -30,20€ (-100% ROI)

Gasquet - Tursunov

Proft: 40,70€ (+101,75% ROI)

Nalbandian - Malisse

Profit: 8,35€ (+55,67% ROI)

Gonzalez - Cuevas

Profit: 6,30€ (+40% ROI)

Maybe too many games, but it is the first and second round of a major tournament and so many games take place. Going down with Djoko was all right in my oppinion, but going down with Rezai, Razzano and Dechy was not OK. Had to take a stopp loss here and maybe I should stop betting on matches with french players.

And if I had used the same stake on all trades it would have been a day in profit at all. Will see how to improve that.

Will come back later with the matches of today. Hope to manage to do it closer to the matches or live.

Horido,

Muxor

Selections for today

Hello,

today i will follow these selections:

• Benneteau v Karlovic Back Karlovic 10€@1,55
• Sela v Robredo Back Robredo
• Chela v Minar Back Chela
• Ancic v Murray Back Murray
• Soderling v Wawrinka Back Soderling
• Lisicki v Koryttseva Back Lisicki 10€@1,62
• Garbin v Bammer Back Bammer
• Petrova v Zheng Back Petrova
• Knapp v Safarova Back Safarova 10€@1,65
• Schiavone v Cibulkova Back Schiavone
• Sugiyama v M. Garrigues Back M. Garrigues
• Peng v Mauresmo Back Mauresmo

Many selections, so i will wait to see odds movement. If odds of a selection shorten lower than 1,45 the match will be skipped.

From now on, i will apply the following rule:
If my selection lost first set and won second set i will lay off. If there is a profit possible i will green up each way, also if there will be a small loss.

According to the situation i will also trade these matches inplay, so i hope i can minimize losses.

I will update odds later.

Fingers crossed,

Loocie

Very small profit

Hi,

i traded the following matches yesterday:

Kuznetsova v Chan

Kuznetsova won first set comfortably 6-1. After losing second set 3-6, i backed her 20€@1,29. From this point Chan lost every game and Kuzzy won 3rd set 6-0. My bets:

Back Kuznetsova 20,00€@1,29
Lay Kuznetsova 20,00€@1,01

Profit: 5,32€ (26,60 % ROI)

Bartoli v Wozniacki

I layed Wozniacki 14€@1,36 when leading 4-2 in first set. Wozniacki won first set 6-3 and odds arround 1,29 where available to back her, so my lay of 1,36 at 4-2 was a good lay.
Bartoli played not well and lost 2nd set 1-6 and i lost arround 5€. My bet:

Lay Wozniacki 14€@1,36

Loss: -5,04€ (-100% ROI)

Yesterday's trading produced a very little profit of 0,28€ and together with my pre match selections i had a loss of -3,18€ yesterday.

All the best,

Loocie

Update pre match tips 2008-03-28

Hello,

yesterdays pre match selections produced a small loss:

• Mathieu v Cilic 4-6, 6-1, 6-4 +6,08€ (Back Mathieu 10€@1,64)
• Andreev v Berrer 6-2, 6-1 +4,75€ (Back Andreev 10€@1,50)
• Ljubicic v Santoro 6-7, 6-2, 3-6 -10,00€ (Back Ljubicic 10€@1,71)
• Mahut v Moya 6-7, 4-6 +5,70€ (Back Moya 10€@1,60)
• Vesnina v Szavay 6-2, 4-6, 6-1 -10,00€ (Back Szavay 10€@1,55)

Azarenka was only available arround 1,36 and i skipped this match. This selections produced a loss of 3,47€. I hope i can do better today.

won: 17
lost: 7
strike rate: 70,83%
avg win odds: 1,64
p/l: 33,08€

All the best, Loocie

Pre match selections

Hello,

today i will follow these selections:

• Mathieu v Cilic Back Mathieu arround 1,67
• Andreev v Berrer Back Andreev arround 1,58
• Ljubicic v Santoro Back Ljubicic arround 1,61
• Mahut v Moya Back Moya arround 1,60
• Vesnina v Szavay Back Szavay arround 1,50
• Perebiynis v Azarenka Back Azarenka arround 1,52

I will wait to see odds movement until the matches start, so i post correct odds later.

Fingers crossed,

Loocie

Have a Break... Have a Kleybanova

Fourteen breaks in the match

Olga Govortsova - Alisa Kleybanova

I backed Kleybanova after early break in second set and after loosing second set in the tiebreak.

Kleybanova won 6-3, 6-7, 6-2.

Bets for the match:

Back Kleybanova 10€ @ 1.45

Back Kleybanova 5€ @ 1.66

Lay Kleybanova 10€ @ 1.06

Lay Klebanova 5 € @ 1.01

Profit: 7,10€ (47,33% ROI)

I also tried to trade the match Anastasia Pivovarova - Ai Sugiyama.
Layed Sugiyama early in second set for 1.05 and took out risk around 1.1. Pivovarova had four set points, three in a row when leading 6-5, 40-0 at own service, but lost the set in tiebreak.

Bets for the match:
Lay Sugiyama 100€ @ 1.05
Back Sugiyama 15€ @ 1.12
Back Sugiyama 45€ @ 1.09

Profit: 0,85€ (17% ROI)

Näkemiin,

Muxor

Inplay trading

Hello,

today i traded Schuettler - Benneteau. I layed Schuettler at 1,4 when leading 5-1 and 40-0 in the first set. Schuettler is well known for winning a set comfortably and then losing the second set and very often also the third set.

Benneteau won second set 6-1 and i layed him at 1,66 and greened up each way.

Maximum risk was 5,20€, so about 100% ROI.

All the best, Loocie

Miami First Day

Not very successfull first day of the Sonyericssonopen in Miami. As especially two players didn't play like expected.

My bets yesterday where:

Angelique Kerber - Akgul Amanmuradova

Backed Akgul Aman... after loosing the first set. But she couldn't bring her tennis on the court. Having 9 Breakpoints and not making a single break in the game. She lost 5-7, 1-6.

Back Akgul 20€ @ 2.8
Loss: 20€ (-100% ROI)

Dimitry Tursunov - Evgeny Korolev

Backed Tursu after loosing first set, took out risk after second set, made winning each way in beginning of third set. Tursunov won 4-6, 6-3, 6-2.

Back Tursunov 20€ @ 2.5
Lay Tursunov 20€ @ 1.61
Lay Tursunov 15€ @ 1.1


Profit: 16,30€ (81,5% ROI)

Tatiana Perebiynis - Gisela Dulko

Perebiynis won the first set 6-4 and second set went into tiebreak, where she was leading 3-0. At this stage a 1.2 was offered, which I took with great pleasure.


Back Perebiynis 10€ @ 1.2

Profit: 2€ (20% ROI)

Casey Dellacqua - Anastasia Rodionova

Backed Dellqcqua after an early break, hoping she will turn it around during first set. But she didn't and lost firt set, but was leading in second set 5-2 and had about 14 set points.... she lost 2-6, 6-7. But I was able to trade out during second set.



Back Dellqcqua 15€ @ 1.9
Lay Rodionova 15€ @ 1.39
Back Rodionova 10€ @ 1.81
Back Rodionova 5€ @ 1.85
Back Rodionova 8€ @ 2.08


Profit: 0,14€ (0,7% ROI)



Leaving a loss of 1,56€ for the day... With two players who just where not able to break. Think the predictions themselves where OK.

Cassey Dellacqua and Akgul Amanmuradova:

You're

Regards,

Muxor

First round update

Hello,

all selections from yesterday produced a total profit of 21,28€:

• Cilic v Vliegen 6-3, 6-2 +5,04€
• Mahut v Mayer 7-6, 6-3 +5,13€
• Tursunov v Korolev 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 +5,61€
• Del Potro v Levine 7-5, 6-1 +5,51€

I do not include this results into my pre match selection stats because i mentioned earlier not betting on first round matches.

All the best, Loocie

Going Deeper Underground

Good news for all fans of Ana Ivanovic, so for us.
Ana agreed to the demand to make her skirt two inches shorter for her appearance in Miami.

We will see if this will improve her tennis or only TV's viewer level.

Sangke bedait,

Muxor

source: The Sportsman's Daily

Small loss

Hello,

Masters tournament in Miami has already started. I got involved in the match Donald Young - Bobby Reynolds. Lost 5€ when laying Reynolds at 1,66 for 8€ after winning first set.

I am upset about the loss in straight sets, because Donald Young took a 4-0 career record into his match against Bobby Reynolds and lost only one set against him.

First round will start today. I will observe these matches closely, but i do not bet pre match in first round matches.

If a gun is put on to my head and I'm asked to predict a winner then I would go on these selections:

• Cilic v Vliegen Back Cilic @1,53
• Mahut v Mayer Back Mahut@1,54
• Tursunov v Korolev Back Tursunov@1,59
• Del Potro v Levine Back Del Potro@1,58

During this tournament i will bet on my selections pre match with real money and i try to get involved inplay if i can see any opportunity.

Good luck,

Loocie

Miami Qualifiers

The qualifiers for Miami Masters finished today. Did some more or less well trading on two matches.

First match:

Chris Guccione - Sam Warburg

First set went into tiebreak and Guccione with very good tiebreak stats this season and well stats for the match so far, but picked a tiebreak he lost and also a match eh lost in straight sets 7-6, 6-2.

Bets for the match:

Back Guccione 20€ @ 1.45
Loss: 20€ (-100% ROI)

Second match:

Bobby Reynolds - Donald Young

Backed Reynolds as underdog during second set at Young leading 5-4 and Reynolds serving. I closed the risk when Reynolds was leading 6-5 and made winning each way one point later. Reynolds won in two sets 6-3, 7-5

Bets for the match:

Back Reynold 20€ @ 1.71
Lay Reynolds 10€ @ 1.10
Lay Reynolds 10€ @ 1.08
Lay Reynolds 10€ @ 1.04

Profit: 12,00€ (60% ROI)

Cheerio,

Muxor

Second Title for Djoko

Novak Djokovich claimed his second title for this season. The final match of the Pacific Life Open in Indian Wells was

Mardy Fish - Novak Djokovic

I made the following bets during this match:

In first set the score was tied 2-2 and Fish was leading with advantage in his service game, I backed Djokovic at 1.29. The stats of Fish showed only 39% first serve and 32% second serve points, so seeing no chance for him to win this set. As expected Djokovic won the set 6-2.

To take out risk I layed Djokovic at 1.1 and in the beginning of second set at odds of 1.05 I made the winning each way.

Althoug leading already 4-2 in the second set, Djokovic managed to loose the set 5-7, but brought himself together and claimed third set, winning the title 6-2, 5-7, 6-3.

Bets for this match:

Back Djokovic 50€ @ 1.29
Lay Djokovic 50€ @ 1.1
Lay Djokovic 9€ @ 1.05

Profit: 9,05€ (18,1% ROI)

Do videnja,

Muxor

We don't play this game to lose

As Loocie is still abroad, I went without him to see the third match of german icehockey league quarter final series between Cologne Sharks and Manheim Eagles. It turned out to be a historic match. After a tied score of 4-4 the game went into the Overtime... into 6 Overtimes.

168 Minutes and 16 seconds of playoff icehockey. The most exciting sport event I ever visited. It was the second longest hockey match of all times with only 8 minutes off to the all time record.

The official result:

Köln (Cologne) - Mannheim 5:4 OT (3:1, 1:1, 0:2, 0:0, 0:0, 0:0, 0:0, 0:0,1:0)

Köln leads the series now 2-1.

Incredible match... no words can cover this, so see some impressions.

Go sharks: We don't play this game to lose.

Greetings,

Muxor

Update pre match selection 2008-03-23

Hello,

easy win for Ana, easy win for us.

• Ivanovic v Kuznetsova 6-4, 6-3 +6,75€

won: 14
lost: 5
strike rate: 73,68%
avg win odds: 1,65
p/l: 36,55€

This tournament produced a profit of 36,55€ on 10€ level stakes. Not bad. I hope i can continue this strike rate in the next tournament.

All the best,

Loocie

Pre match selection

Hello,

Ana Ivanovic and Svetlana Kuznetsova will face off for their first 2008 Pacific Life Open women’s title. See my selection below:

• Ivanovic v Kuznetsova Back Ivanovic 10€@1,71

Good luck,

Loocie

Doing your homework is elementary

Hi,

doing your homework is elementary. My pre match selection was Djokovic. He has a stronger serve and he is a better return player than Nadal on hard court.

I backed Djokovic after 1st break of Nadal at 2,3. You know, at mens tennis, one break can mean winning a set, so i decided to back only with a small stake (5€) and put more on Djokovic, if he lose the first set. He breaked back and won easily 6-3, 6-2.

After winning first set i layed Djokovic to minimize risk and to get an opportunity to back him again at higher odds. Nadal called for the trainer and a traded out to avoid lower profit caused by retirement.


Good luck,

Loocie

Update pre match tips 2008-03-22

Hi,

Nole is my hero :)

• Djokovic v Nadal 6-3, 6-2 +5,99€

won: 13
lost: 5
strike rate: 72,22%
avg win odds: 1,65
p/l: 29,80€

Selection for today

I suggest this match:

• Djokovic v Nadal Back Djokovic 10€@1,63

Fingers crossed,

Loocie

Update pre match tips 2008-03-21

Hello,

Sharapova lost against Kuznetsova and so we lost too:

• Ivanovic v Jankovic 7-6, 6-3 +6,08€
• Sharapova v Kuznetsova 3-6, 7-5, 2-6 -10€
  

won: 12
lost: 5
strike rate: 70,59%
avg win odds: 1,65
p/l: 23,82€

Ana Ivanovic - Jelena Jankovic

The all serbian match was expected to bring good trading opportunities.
After a tight first tiebraker set, the second set was not that tight and Ana Ivanovic could claim this victory in straight sets.

I backed Ivanovich during first set and took out risk at the beginning of the tiebreak. After winning the set i layed her, and layed a little bit more after an early break. Unfortunately Jankovic was not able to fight back in second set. All the green was on her, but also no red on Ivanovic.

Bets for this match:

Back Ana 20€ @ 1.76
Lay Ana 20€ @ 1.35
Lay Ana 40€ @ 1.3
Lay Ana 40€ @ 1.09
Back Ana 40€ @ 1.19

Profit: 0,20€ (1% ROI)

Buenos Noches,

Muxor

Selections for today

Hi,

today i suggest both semi finals from Pacific Life Open womens tournament.

• Ivanovic v Jankovic Back Ivanovic 10€@1,64
• Sharapova v Kuznetsova Back Sharapova 10€@1,45

Both matches are good for trading, so i hope i can enter the market inplay.

Loocie

Update pre match tips 2008-03-20

Hello,

Lindsay Davenport retired because of a back injury. First set was completed, so Betfair settled this bet.

• Jankovic v Davenport 6:2, ret. +7,22€

won: 11
lost: 4
strike rate: 73,33%
avg win odds: 1,65
p/l: 27,74€

I will post today's selections later.

All the best,

Loocie

Selection for today

Hello,

today i want to suggest only one match:

• Jankovic - Davenport Back Jankovic 10€@1,76

This match is also good for trading. Best option would be to enter this match inplay.

The odds on Nadal are too low to back him. He had a big fight yesterday against Tsonga, so how about his recovery? James Blake seems to be in good form, also he is very motivated when he is playing at home.

I also think Ivanovic will beat Zvonareva, but i do not want to back 1,41 pre match, especially in wta matches. This would be a good match for trading.

So fingers crossed for Jelena!

Good luck,

Loocie

Update pre match tips 2008-03-19

Hello,

a small profit is better than a big loss :)

• Gasquet v Blake 4-6, 2-6 -10,00€
• Lee v Wawrinka 1-6, 7-5, 6-4 +4,85€
• Tsonga v Nadal 7-6, 6-7, 5-7 +7,03€
• Ferrero v Nalbandian 2-6, 2-6 +9,31€
• Fish v Hewitt 7-5, 3-6, 7-6 -10,00€

All odds are from http://www.betfair.com and i calculated with 5% comission.

won: 10
lost: 4
strike rate: 71,43%
avg win odds: 1,64
p/l: 20,52€

I will post selections for today later.

CU, Loocie

Rafi is fighting

I like players who fight and I like players who know how to play tennis... so Rafael Nadal is one of my favourite players.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Rafael Nadal

I wanted to make some fast money, but I was greedy.
Normally I try not to enter matches in the last set, but seeing the odds on Rafa jumping from 1.6 to 1.98 when Tsonga was leading 3-2, Nadal serving and 15-30, made me to back Nadal with the thought of trading out immediately after the point or game with about 10-15% profit each way, because Rafa was playing very well and didn't seem to be broken. It happens exactly as predictet, 30-30 and odds dropping back to 1.7. So the desired profit was there after 20 seconds. But I was greedy and wanted to wait till Nadal won his service game. Of course Tsonga punished me immediately and made the break. Odds drifted immediately so high, that no stop loss was possible.
Tsonga also won his service afterwards, leading 5-2, but Rafa was fighting back and won the set 7-5. Great match to watch in betfair stream.
I closed my trade immediately, when the before desired odds arrived after Rafa breaking back to 5-4.

When serving for match odds went to 1.01 and I made it each way winning.

Hopefully will learn from that to follow my plan and take the desired profit when reached.

Bets for the match:

Back Nadal 20€ @ 1.98
Lay Nadal 20€ @ 1.78
Lay Nadal 4€ @ 1.01

Profit: 3,36€ (+16,8% ROI)

Thank you Rafi.

Hasta luego,

Muxor

Selections for today

Loocie is abroad, but here are his selections for today:

• Blake v Gasquet Back Gasquet 10€@1.71
• Lee v Wawrinka Back Wawrinka 10€@1.51
• Tsonga v Nadal Back Nadal 10€@1.74
• Ferrero v Nalbdandian Back Nalbandian 10€@1.98
• Fish v Hewitt Back Hewitt 10€@1.62

I will see myself how much time I have today to cover Inplay markets.

Do-da-da-go-hv-i,

Muxor

Update pre match tips 2008-03-18

Hello,

2nd day in profit. Seems to be a really good start of the pre match tips.

Stepanek v Nalbandian 6-7, 6-0, 6-7 +5,13€
Ljubicic v Robredo 6-3, 6-4 +6,27€
Ancic v Ferrero 5-7, 6-4, 6-7 -10,00€
Verdasco v Haas 6-7, 6-4, 1-6 +5,80€

won: 7
lost: 2
strike rate: 77,78%
avg win odds: 1,59
p/l: 19,33€

I will post today's selections later this day.

Have a nice day,

Loocie

Risk means you might loose

Maria Sharapova - Alona Bondarenko

Backed Sharapova 2-0 Victory at 1.28 during first set and traded out half of my risk after Sharapova winning first set and leading with a break in second set. Unfortunately she stopped playing her normal tennis afterwards and lost the set 5-7.
More unfortunately I didn't follow my own stop loss advise (or in this case a save profit advise) and let the winnings run until they turned into a loss. One of the most important things to improve... to beat your inner aversion against loss or small profits, if odds are running against you.

Not nice, but nothing to do now, we will get it back.

Bets for the match:

Back Sharapova 2-0 20€ @ 1.28
Lay Sharapova 2-0 10€ @ 1.08

Loss: 10 € (-50% ROI)

Sayonara,

Muxor

German Hockey Playoffs

Loocie an me visited a live event today. First match of quarter final series in german icehockey league.

Mannheim playing at Köln (Cologne).

Short review of the game... tickets for the second row, great crowd, great match, with Köln leading 4-0 after second periods and winning 4-3 after a very tight and exciting third period.

See some impressions:

Catch-you-later,

Muxor

Pre match tennis tips

Hello,

today i have these pre match selections:

• Stepanek v Nalbandian Back Nalbandian 10€@1,54
• Ljubicic v Robredo Back Ljubicic 10€@1,66
• Ancic v Ferrero Back Ancic 10€@1,60
• Verdasco v Haas Back Haas 10€@1,61

The goal of this pre match tipping is to improve my forecasts of matches. I want to achieve a strike rate of 70% correct predicted matches. This would be a really good fundament for inplay trading.

So fingers crossed for today's selections.

Good luck,

Loocie

Follow your rules

An example what happens if you don't follow your own rules was the match

Wawrinka - Baghdatis

The rule I didn't follow was:

Back fav after an early break against him, in WTA matches.

I tried to transport this rule to an ATP match. But in ATP one break is mostly enough to win the set. But seeing Baghdatis as a clear fav in this match, made me to back him after beeing braked in his first service game in set one. After he lost the set I took a stop loss to limit risk, leaving minimal profit on him. A whise decision (after a bad one backing so early), as he couldn't bring himself together and lost the match 6-3, 6-7, 6-0.

Lay Wawrinka 20 € @ 1.57
Back Wawrinka 19€ @ 1.35

Loss: 4,75€ (-41.6% ROI)

Ngeyavalilisa,

Muxor

Update pre match tips 2008-03-17

Hello,

we had a good start with our selections. Only 1 lose and 4 wins and we are in profit:

• Mathieu v Tsonga 6-7, 4-6 +6,08€
• Baghdatis v Wawrinka 3-6, 7-6, 0-6 -10€
• Canas v Monaco 6-3, 6-7, 6-2 +5,23€
• Pennetta v Schiavone 3-6, 4-6 +5,99€
• Garrigues v Rodina 6-3, 7-5 +4,85€

won: 4
lost: 1
strike rate: 80,00%
avg win odds: 1,58
p/l: 12,14€

JWT - PHM

Another rule for inplay betting is:

Regard the stats of the players in this match (service points, return points, etc.)

An example for this rule was the all french match Tsonga - Mathieu.
Knowing Tsonga as an incredible good service player, it is important to see if his service works.

After winning first set in tiebreak the second set went up to 4-4 without any big odds movements, but Mathieu with only one return point and Tsonga with 6 aces in second set so far.

I took the back odds after Mathieu serving and winning his service game (to score 4-4) close. After his service games the odds went some ticks higher. Aftwerwards Tsonga won his service game again to love and then took second match point to break and win second set and match 6-4. At match points the odds where too expensive to take out risk.

Bets for this match:

Back Tsonga 33€ @ 1.23

Profit: 7,59 € (23% ROI)

Hasta luego,

Muxor

Free Lay

To find a free lay is one objective while inplay trading.

Free lay means, that you can lay a player while he has set- or breakpoint, because the odds already went to the value it would be, if the player won the set or game. If the player wins the set, you can trade out without loss and without risk. In close matches, or tiebreaks, you can't see this odds movement. Here the odds will drop after winning the set.


Example: Yung-Jan Chan - Lindsay Davenport

At the end of the second set Chan was leading 5-4 and had one set point. I backed Davenport at 1.33. Davenport made it to 5-5, but didn't break by herself afterwards. At 5-6 I traded out with minimal profit, but without any risk.

Back Davenport 10€ @ 1.33

Lay Davenport 10€ @ 1.29

Profit: 0,40 € (4% ROI)

Tot ziens,

Muxor

Tennis Inplay Betting

One another category of this blog will be the inplay markets of tennis matches.

When trading on an inplay tennis marke, the objective is to find (and use) market overreactions and to predict turning(trading-)points of the match correctly.

There are also some rules we figured out for betting inplay. But I will cover these rules step by step. First rule to mention:


Don't enter markets in the final set, when two equal players meet each other.


Only if clear favs go to third set, they are worth a back-bet. Fav should be at odds of 1.5 or less prematch.

One example of a match covered this evening and an example when to enter market lately:


Kerber-Bartoli

Bartoli won first set 6-3 quite easily and also was doing well in second set, but Kerber fought it into tiebrak. Stats said Kerber winning only 50% service points in second set and less than 50% during first set. Bartoli, as the much more experienced player and with positive overall tiebreak statistics, was a clear fav for this tiebrak and the whole match at all. As market was offering a 1.35 before tiebreak I entered market with small stake and willing to back more, if it would go to third set.

Easy going for Bartoli to win the tiebreak 7-3. I took out risk at first match point, when 1.01 was offered.

Bets for this match:

Back Bartoli 10€ @ 1.35
Lay Bartoli 10€ @ 1.01

Profit: +3,4€ (34% ROI)

Small profit, but also small risk.

Will come back with more from the inplay markets later...

Adios Amigos,

Muxor

Tennis pre match tips

In this category of the blog i try to forecast the winner pre match. I apply the following rules:

1. Don't bet on the first match of a player in a tournament.
2. Only bet on odds higher than 1,44.
3. Try to avoid over betting ;)

Actually i do net bet on this matches with real money. It is only paper betting. Let's start with a virtual bank of 100€ and 10€ on each selection.

These matches are my selections for today:

• Mathieu v Tsonga Back Tsonga 10€@1,64
• Baghdatis v Wawrinka Back Baghdatis 10€@1,73
• Canas v Monaco Back Canas 10€@1,55
• Pennetta v Schiavone Back Schiavone 10€@1,63
• Garrigues v Rodina Back Medina Garrigues 10€@1,51

Fingers crossed :)

All the best,

Loocie

About this blog

Hello,

this is our blog about trading sport events at betfair. We will discuss our ideas and thoughts when trading sport events. Our prefered sport for trading is tennis, but it is also possible to see trades and bets in other sports. This blog should not be only one of these "i made 500€ this day" blogs or something like "i want to turn 10€ into 10k€ in one year".
Why the name "Lay yourself"? One of the most important thing in trading sport events is to pick your matches very carefully. There is no need to enter every match on the schedule.
We hope we can improve our trading with the support of this blog.
Any comments would be much appreciated.

All the best,

Loocie and Muxor