I like players who fight and I like players who know how to play tennis... so Rafael Nadal is one of my favourite players.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Rafael Nadal
I wanted to make some fast money, but I was greedy.
Normally I try not to enter matches in the last set, but seeing the odds on Rafa jumping from 1.6 to 1.98 when Tsonga was leading 3-2, Nadal serving and 15-30, made me to back Nadal with the thought of trading out immediately after the point or game with about 10-15% profit each way, because Rafa was playing very well and didn't seem to be broken. It happens exactly as predictet, 30-30 and odds dropping back to 1.7. So the desired profit was there after 20 seconds. But I was greedy and wanted to wait till Nadal won his service game. Of course Tsonga punished me immediately and made the break. Odds drifted immediately so high, that no stop loss was possible.
Tsonga also won his service afterwards, leading 5-2, but Rafa was fighting back and won the set 7-5. Great match to watch in betfair stream.
I closed my trade immediately, when the before desired odds arrived after Rafa breaking back to 5-4.
When serving for match odds went to 1.01 and I made it each way winning.
Hopefully will learn from that to follow my plan and take the desired profit when reached.
Bets for the match:
Back Nadal 20€ @ 1.98
Lay Nadal 20€ @ 1.78
Lay Nadal 4€ @ 1.01
Profit: 3,36€ (+16,8% ROI)
Thank you Rafi.
1 hour ago