Not my day

Hello,

yesterday was not a good day. I traded the following matches:

Dementieva v Dulko

total loss: -26.05€

Peer v Safina

total loss: -16.23€

After this losses I stopped trading. I remembered the blog entry of The Betfair Loser when he had a bad trading day: If things aren't going your way, then walk away!

No trading today and preparing for EURO 2008 final between Germany and Spain. I hope Germany can take the victory and win the trophy. Fingers crossed.

Stats so far:

total loss today: -42.28€

total profit this month: +26.14€

All the best, Loocie

No mistakes means profit

Hi,

yesterday was a good trading day for me. Here is an overview of my trades:

Safin v Berdych
I watched this match lieve on tv. In second set you could see, that Safin was not concentrated and impatient. I layed him @1.74 and backed him @2.0.
When trading I have two different approaches:

• 1. Taking a position because my selection is likely to win
• 2. Taking a position because of expected odds movement

This trade was an example of the 2nd approach. I think it is important to identify the reason why you want to take a position before you take this position.

Bartoli v Mattek
This was a very good example of a free lay. Mattek was leading 5-4 in 1st set and Bartoli was serving. Bartoli took a medical timeout and I backed Mattek @1.83. I expected Bartoli to retire so I was waiting until the first ball was played in 2nd set. When Mattek was serving 1st in 2nd set I closed the trade.

Berdych v Verdasco
Verdasco won 1st set 6-4 and I layed him @1.46. I was looking for an profit of 20% ROI each way, so I needed back odds arround 1.63. During this 2nd set I got some money matched @1.63, but Berdych did not improve and I scratched the trade @ 1.47 right before Verdasco made the break. The match did not develope as predicted so I decided to close this trade. Was a very good decision, Verdasco won this match 6-4, 6-4, 6-0.

Lopez v Reynolds
Another match where I expected odds movement. I think it was in 3rd set and Reynolds had 2 break points. I layed Lopez @1,11 and baked him @1,13. With a liability of 50.00€ I could produce a profit of 12.39€, more than 20% ROI.

Stats so far:

total profit yesterday: +30.01€

total profit this month: +68.42€

All the best, Loocie

One team, one goal!

Hello,

I can not believe that Germany reached the final of EURO 2008! What an exciting match against Turkey. Germany did not play well, but they were fighting and won this match 3-2. If anybody has a screen shot of the odds movement on Betfair, please leave a comment or contact via email.

When typing this I am watching the 2nd semi final Russia vs Spain.

Wimbledon has already started and we have seen some upsets: Davydenko, Djokovic, Sharapova. Some heavy losses for low odds backers.

Generally Muxor and me find it very difficult to trade matches played on grass courts. Grass court season is very short, so many players have problems to find their way playing on grass.

Here is an overview of my trades of the last few days:

I had not very much mistakes during trading. I took stop losses, when a match went against me and could produce a small profit.

That's all for the last few days and now I want to write about today's trades. Here is an overview of today's trades:

The day started really bad and I lost -68.67€ in a single match! What a nightmare!

What happened? I was risking too much, could not accept a loss and put more money in the market. It was a beginner's mistake and I should not make this mistake anymore.

The good thing is, from this point I traded really well. I did not chased my loss, I was concentrated and could reduce my daily loss.

Stats so far:

total loss today: -8.15€

total profit this month: +38.41€

Cheers, Loocie

Captain Jack is back

Hey folks,

 

I am back from vacation in the United States and an incredible downswing in tennis trading afterwards during the french open finals. I also changed my trading system like Loocie and took small and steady profits and then couldn't accept losses what made me loose even more during the final two matches then I won in the whole tournament before. Me stupid! These trades made me so angry, because it is always the same mistake and I make it again and again. Will try to end the mistake of loosing all profits of an tournament in final stages together with Doc Loocies help now! Because it is much easier to get up again after a downswing if you do trades together. It gives you self confidence and that is what you need for trading. Nonetheless, I will cover my tennis trades for Wimbledon again here in the blog.

 

Some another trades have been made during the EURO2008 and it worked quite well. See yourself:

 

the EURO2008 resultet in a profit of 95 € so far. I will see if I can increase that during the remaining matches.

 

So keep in mind: I am back in action and will keep you updated about what is going on.

 

Fürti,

Muxor

Preparing for Wimbledon

Hello,

it is the last week before 2008 Wimbledon and only small trading. Here is an overview of my last trades:

Only two losses (I do not count this -1.46€ as a loss) in 13 matches which is generally a good result.

Nadal v Karlovic

Karlovic won 1st set 7-6 and score was 6-6 in 2nd set. I backed Karlovic 50€@1.57. It is really difficult to break him, especially on grass, so it was a good price. Nadal was fighting and won this 2nd tie break and I took stop loss.

Federer v Kohlschreiber

I watched this match on TV and forced a trade...and lost. Should have saved this money in my pocket, but I did not.

Federer v Vacek

This was quite funny because you could not back Federer@Betfair! You only could lay him @1.01!

I remembered first match of Nadal at 2008 Roland Garros. Same situation and he traded higher, so I backed Vacek 4€@110 and later I backed Federer €1.03 to have more than 200% ROI.

Stats so far:

total profit this week: 37.31€

total profit this month: 29.05€

All the best, Loocie

Avoiding psychological traps

Hi all,

With only one exception I had some good trades in the last few days. See picture below:

Without this loss from 2008 Roland Garros final it would be a larger profit. I think during this match I tried to force a trade and opposed Nadal...and lost money!

What to do, if one ore more trades go against you? The Betfair Loser described this in his blog entry A step backwards. I could not understand this headline, because I think he did the right thing.

Another blog entry from punt.com gives information about avoiding psychological traps when trading sport events.

It is always good to see other traders sharing their thoughts and experiences via blog entries or comments.

Stats so far:

total profit this month: +10.59€

total profit this week: +67.08€

Good luck with trading!

Cheers, Loocie

Rethinking the way of trading tennis

Hi,

was a long time since my last blog entry. First I want to write about my trading results from 2008 French Open.

First day of trading 2008 French Open produced a loss of -14.09€. I think this was not a bad trade, but I was really upset about Vaidisova losing 2nd set 1-6.

With this loss I lost some self confidence and got nervous when trading Gremelmayr v Djokovic. Took "stop loss" and lost again. So two negative trades and I became scared of losing the money I was working so hard for.

I traded Robredo v Coria and Coria won 1st set 7-5. I entered the match and backed Robredo. Was a good trade, but I got nervous again, because match did not develop in the first games of 2nd set so I scratched that trade. After scratching Robredo broke Coria and won 2nd set 6-4. Final result Robredo v Coria 5-7, 6-4, 6-1, 6-4.

All you need is self confidence with your selections. Two trades (Djokovic and Robredo) could have produced a decent profit, but I cut my winnings and had a small loss.

Cetkovska v A Bondarenko produced a loss of -15.65€ and I stopped trading with a clear head and started trades of frustration and gambling.

The biggest loss was in the match Pennetta v Suarez Navarro.

I lost -77.25€. I did not take a stop loss, I put more money on Pennetta.

Generally I have to learn to accept losses. That is really difficult.

I was rethinking about my way to trade tennis matches. Generally I know when to enter a match, but I have problems to find the perfect moment to close the trade. I will give an example:

Yesterdays women's final between Ivanovic and Safina: I layed Ivanovic @1.41 after she broke Safina in 1st game. I wanted to make a profit of 20%, so I needed back odds of 1.54. I watched the match via Eurosport Germany and Safina was not playing bad, but Ivanovic was leading 4-1 and I layed her again @1.26. Safina was fighting and she could equalize and score was 4-4 in 1st set.

Now, I want to describe the differences between my old style of trading and my new style of trading:

In the past I would have waited for Safina to win the 1st set. That means I was waiting for a complete turn in the match. But this does not happen very often.

Now, I am only looking for an opportunity where the score can be equalized. I know the match can turn completely, but to stay in profit I do not need a complete turn. I backed Ivanovic when Safina had the break point to equalize to 4-4 and I was in profit.

Ivanovic won this match 6-4, 6-3 and with my old style of trading I would have produced a big loss although I identified a good trading opportunity.

I applied this new trading style since a week and could produce a nice profit.

Stats so far:

total profit May: +1.36€

total profit this week: +57.43€

total loss this month:  -19.82€

All the best, Loocie