2008-06-08

Rethinking the way of trading tennis

Hi,

was a long time since my last blog entry. First I want to write about my trading results from 2008 French Open.

First day of trading 2008 French Open produced a loss of -14.09€. I think this was not a bad trade, but I was really upset about Vaidisova losing 2nd set 1-6.

With this loss I lost some self confidence and got nervous when trading Gremelmayr v Djokovic. Took "stop loss" and lost again. So two negative trades and I became scared of losing the money I was working so hard for.

I traded Robredo v Coria and Coria won 1st set 7-5. I entered the match and backed Robredo. Was a good trade, but I got nervous again, because match did not develop in the first games of 2nd set so I scratched that trade. After scratching Robredo broke Coria and won 2nd set 6-4. Final result Robredo v Coria 5-7, 6-4, 6-1, 6-4.

All you need is self confidence with your selections. Two trades (Djokovic and Robredo) could have produced a decent profit, but I cut my winnings and had a small loss.

Cetkovska v A Bondarenko produced a loss of -15.65€ and I stopped trading with a clear head and started trades of frustration and gambling.

The biggest loss was in the match Pennetta v Suarez Navarro.

I lost -77.25€. I did not take a stop loss, I put more money on Pennetta.

Generally I have to learn to accept losses. That is really difficult.

I was rethinking about my way to trade tennis matches. Generally I know when to enter a match, but I have problems to find the perfect moment to close the trade. I will give an example:

Yesterdays women's final between Ivanovic and Safina: I layed Ivanovic @1.41 after she broke Safina in 1st game. I wanted to make a profit of 20%, so I needed back odds of 1.54. I watched the match via Eurosport Germany and Safina was not playing bad, but Ivanovic was leading 4-1 and I layed her again @1.26. Safina was fighting and she could equalize and score was 4-4 in 1st set.

Now, I want to describe the differences between my old style of trading and my new style of trading:

In the past I would have waited for Safina to win the 1st set. That means I was waiting for a complete turn in the match. But this does not happen very often.

Now, I am only looking for an opportunity where the score can be equalized. I know the match can turn completely, but to stay in profit I do not need a complete turn. I backed Ivanovic when Safina had the break point to equalize to 4-4 and I was in profit.

Ivanovic won this match 6-4, 6-3 and with my old style of trading I would have produced a big loss although I identified a good trading opportunity.

I applied this new trading style since a week and could produce a nice profit.

Stats so far:

total profit May: +1.36€

total profit this week: +57.43€

total loss this month:  -19.82€

All the best, Loocie

2 comments:

The Betfair Loser said...

For what its worth, I think you did the right thing in cutting your losses on Robredo and Djokovic at Roland Garros.

In the Djokovic match I think you should have avoided getting involved....regardless of who is playing, I think buying in at less than 1.2 is a sure way to lose money (speaking from bitter exoperience!!). Too much risk for too little gain! In cases like this, the tendancy is to focus on your potential winnings rather than potential losses, meaning you are staking too much and more likely to panic if the market doesn't move the way you anticipate.

Still you are analysing your trades, and watching how markets react and evolving your methods...Im sure you are going to have a very profittable Wimbledon!!!

All the best,

TBL

Loocie said...

Hi TBL,

thank you very much for leaving a comment.
I hope you are right and I can make some profit during Wimbledon.

All the best, Loocie