Wasting money

Hello,

as mentioned earlier I have an eye on trading football.

During the last days I traded 3 football matches and lost too much money:

I watched the matches and the odds closely and maybe this was the problem. My intension is to watch a game and if I identify a situation where one team is under pressure or something else, then I should enter a market.

I also used too high stakes and I wasted my hard-earned money. The next matches I will do only paper trading and if I am making consistently profit, I can use small stakes.

My monthly soccer trading is a night mare:

total loss soccer July 2008: -€52.21

Trading tennis works really good:

Not much to say. Had a good day yesterday. No mistakes means profit:

total profit tennis July 2008: €76.23

In a few days I will analyse my trading during this month, but it would not be a secret that soccer was the sport I lost too much money.

Stats for this month so far:

total profit this month: €23.69

All the best, Loocie

I like it green

Hello,

today I traded only one match:

Not much to write about it. I just like these green figure screen shots, so I post one.

Yesterday I had a free lay on Zakopalova v Martic, but it did not work so I had a small loss of -€1.36.

Trading works good these days. I am very disciplined and maybe a little bit lucky ;) I know things can change, but I hope I can keep up that good results.

Stats so far:

total profit this month: €26.69

Cheers, Loocie

Trading 2008 Rogers Cup

Hello,

the 2008 Rogers Cup has already started and I traded the following matches:

I selected the matches very carefully, because I want to avoid entering matches without identifying a trading point. My analysis helped me to be patient. It was a really good idea to do this.

Stats so far:

total profit this month: €15.26

All the best with trading!

Cheers, Loocie

Trading German Grand Prix

Hello,

yesterday I traded the German Grand Prix of Formula 1. As mentioned earlier I focused on the Fastest Lap market. I only used a liability of 10€, because I am new at trading Formula 1, so I want to get a feeling for the market:

Could be more profit, but I closed the trade as soon as possible.

No tennis trading in the last few days, but today starts 2008 Rogers Cup in Toronto. It is not the best time to trade tennis if you are living in Europe, but I hope I can enter some matches.

That's it for now.

All the best with trading!

Cheers, Loocie

Thoughts on trading soccer

Hello,

I have not posted for a week, so I give an update of my last trades.

Trading tennis:

These days are only small tournaments. I was not sure how motivated players were, so I kept my stakes low and closed the trades as soon as possible. I also entered the market only, if there was a very good opportunity with low risks.

We see, I made no loss since the last blog entry in trading tennis. That is a very good sign.

Trading soccer:

In past I did not trade on soccer, because only one goal can change the odds dramatically. But soccer is the sport I know very good, so I was thinking about how to turn my knowledge into profit.

Trading the over/under does not match my style of trading. Generally when trading I take a position for a longer period, so I do not like to dip in and out of the market quickly.

During Euro 2008 I watched many games and I recognized that sometimes I can identify situations where a team dominates the match or a team is not able to shoot a goal.

I remember the match Germany vs Portugal. At the beginning Germany played really well and made two goals quickly. But after the second goal, Germany stopped playing football. They did not attack aggressive as they did it before.

Odds were really low, so for a certain period they would not shorten dramatically. We all know what happened: Portugal made a goal and score was 2-1.

The question now is, what to do, if the match did not develop as predicted. Well, it is the same like trading tennis: Take a stop loss and lose only a small amount.

I also think you have to trade out, if the opposed team has a corner or free kick. If this corner or free kick does not produce a goal, you can enter the market again. Maybe you have lost two or three ticks, because odds of a team shorten, if this team has a corner or free kick.

Yesterdays match SV Ried vs SV Kapfenberg was a very good example for closing the trade, if the opposed team has a corner or free kick.

I fancied Ried to win the match and entered the market after they scored the first time. Score was 1-0 and I entered the market a few minutes after the goal, because I was waiting to see, if Ried could continue to dominate the match. I backed Ried at 1.4x. They played well, but later they could not continue to make pressure on Kapfenberg's defence, so I decided to trade out right before a corner for Kapfenberg.

Kapfenberg equalized with this corner and odds drifted to 2.4x when the score was 1-1. I was so happy, because I closed the trade.

When trading U19 European Championship I made a huge error. I re-entered the market a few minutes before the end of the match and I can not tell you why.

Also the stake was to high, especially when I am actually learning trading soccer. But there was a trading point after Germany scored the second time and score was 2-0 and odds around 1.08.

If I remember correctly the 2nd goal was scored in the 56th minute of the game, so there was enough time for a goal of Spain. The funny thing is, they made a goal and odds drifted to 1.4x.

Conclusion how to trade soccer matches (market match odds):

• Watch the game live via TV
• Identify trading points (like U19 Germany vs Spain)
• Do not force a trade
• Close the trade, if the opposed team has a corner or a free kick

I know this conclusion is not very accurate, because identifying trading points is something what depends on your knowledge and experience of soccer, but I think it is similar to identifying trading points in tennis.

Not forcing a trade is very important. The problem is you are watching a match (and you can not watch two or more matches simultaneously) and maybe during this match you can not identify any trading points and maybe you feel watching this match is wasting your time. But that is also a part of trading.

I think there must be another rule to follow, something like "do not enter a market after xx minutes are played", but first I have to learn the odds movement in certain situations to identify such a rule.

If you have any experience in trading soccer and want to share some thoughts feel free to contact via mail or leave a comment.

Cheers, Loocie

Overview of my last trades

Hello,

I will give an update of my trades in the last few days:

Formula 1:

A small loss at 2008 Silverstone Grand Prix. I tried to trade some markets, but trading Formula 1 is complete different to my trading style in tennis. The 'Fastest Lap' market suits well, so I will concentrate only on this market.

Tennis:

Small wins and small losses, except one 'bigger' loss in the men's final of 2008 Wimbledon. The good thing is I took stop loss and lost not more than 20€, which is the amount I can afford to lose.

Stats so far:

total loss this month: -16.03€

Trading these days is quite difficult because of low liquidity and non working scoreboards.

Many people lost money in the match Isner vs Levine. Official ATP scoreboard showed the wrong score the whole match. Unbelievable! I am really happy that I did not trade this match.

Also motivation of players is not very high, so we can se many favourites losing their matches.

I decided not to get involved these days anymore. My analysis gave me really confidence. That means I am not frustrated about the losses above. I know I have to look at the bigger picture. There will be good matches to trade on very soon, so there is no need to chase these losses.

While not trading Muxor an me have time to develop our Betfair software (called LiveTrader) for mobile devices with Microsoft Windows Mobile. In the next few days we will post some screen shots.

All the best with trading!

Cheers, Loocie

Analysing my trades

Hello,

I read a very good blog entry from punt.com about analysing your trades. That's a thing I did not make in the past, so it is time to do that.

Here are my stats of the last four months:

March 08: +3.08
April 08: +25.27
May 08: +1.36
June 08: +25.90

First to say: I am in profit! That is a good sign for a beginner in sports trading. We also see I do not make consistently similar amounts of profit every month.

In March I tried to identify potentially winners in tennis matches. That is something I am not good in, so that's the reason why I am trading. I put money on my pre match selections and lost -32.37€, so I think it was possible to make a bigger profit this month without punting.

In May I lost -18.76€ when trading Formula 1 with too large amounts, so a bigger profit was also available.

I collected detailed data of trading tennis in June:

June 08:

number of matches I traded: 57
number of wins: 37
number of losses: 17
scratched trades: 3
number of losses > 3€: 13

total win: +345.77
total loss: -319.87
total pl: +25.90

average win: +9.35
average loss: -18.82
average pl: +0.45

win rate: 69% (I do not count the scratched trades)
max win: +20.51
max loss: -77.25

The diagram above shows my amounts of profit and loss I made during June 08.

What we see from this diagram is: I am not disciplined! I make profit in 69 trades of 100, but I had 5 trades where I lost more than 20.

Here are the stats with an assumed maximum loss of 20€:

number of matches I traded: 57
number of wins: 37
number of losses: 17
scratched trades: 3
number of losses > 3€: 13

total win: +345.77
total loss: -186.42
total pl: +159.35

average win: +9.35
average loss: -10.94
average pl: +2.80

win rate: 69% (I do not count the scratched trades)
max win: +20.51
max loss: -20.00

If I am disciplined the average win amount is the same like the average loss. Also my total profit could be more than 600% than it is today. The problem is, I do not think about it, when I am actually in a match and the match does not develop as predicted.

During reviewing my trades, I also wrote down for every trade I made, if there was a trading point or not. In 8 of the 17 losses, I entered the market, but there was no trading point. I want to give an example:

Safina v Peer

This was a 3rd round match and I expected Safina to win this match. Peer won 1st set 7-5, see stats of 1st set below:

After this first set I backed Safina 30€@1.94. This was not a trading point, it was a gambling point. Safina was not serving very well, both players had similar percentages of receiving points won and a similar number of break points. There was no reason to enter the market at this time.

At the start of the 2nd set Peer made a break and the odds on her shortened very much. When she made the break, we saw a trading point, because with 47% receiving points won by Safina a re-break was possible with a large odds movement.

Back to my reviewing of my trades, 8 of the 17 losses came from trades like this in the match Safina v Peer, so I have the capability to improve my trading with being more cautious when entering a match.

quote from punt.com:

"Emotional stability is important for maintaining discipline.  Keeping records like this allows you to actually see a bigger picture of the war you are fighting rather than the losses you might take in individual battles - which inevitably stick in your mind longer than the wins."

That is something I want to do from now on. I created an Excel sheet to keep my records with auto updated stats similar to these I created for June.

All the best, Loocie

Small trading this weekend

Hello,

I did not trade the last days at Wimbledon, because I did not identify any good trading opportunity, so I stayed away. Earlier this year I would have forced trades in similar situations and maybe would have lost.

Today we have the women's single final between Serena and Venus Williams. I expect a three setter, but will only enter the market, if I can see a good opportunity.

This weekend is also another Formula 1 weekend. I did some research on statistics and race facts and gave me €20 to get involved in markets of 2008 Formula 1 Santander British Grand Prix:

Safety Car?

Will there be a safety car deployed during the race? I think yes, because:

• In the last 5 years safety car deployed in 4 races
• Weather prediction: There is a good probability of rain during race
• No traction control for drivers this year

Winner

Who will win this race? I expect a Ferrari to win this race, but I expect Hamilton to get pole position. If he gets pole, I will lay him in the Winner market.

Points Finish

I think about to lay Heidfeld in points finish, but will wait until qualifying.

Will update later.

Update

I got involved in the women's final of 2008 All England Championship:

S. Williams v V. Williams

I applied a free lay and it worked:

As mentioned earlier today, I was expecting a three setter, so I put all my winnings on the loser of the first set:

In 2nd set Serena was a break in front and leading 2-1. She lost her service game and score was tight: 2-2.

From this point she was not serving very well and I was not sure about her to win this 2nd set. I hedged when Venus was leading 4-3 in 2nd set.

Wow, this was the first time I hedged at the perfect moment. I expected a three setter, but I recognized that the match did not develop as predicted and hedged my profit.

Final result: Serena v Venus 5-7, 4-6

All the best, Loocie

No trading these days

Hello,

no trading in the last few days. This year's All England Championship seems very unpredictable. Many favourites were losing their matches and they lost very often in straight sets.

Some players did not prepared for grass court season, so I can understand some losses, but it is really funny to see Rainer Schuettler or Arnaud Clement in semi final of Wimbledon.

It was also very exciting to see yesterday's match Murray vs Gasquet. I could not understand why Gasquet stopped playing tennis.

While typing this I am watching Dementieva vs Petrova via scoreboard and I can not believe what happened to Dementieva. She won 1st set 6-1 and was leading 5-1 in 2nd set. She lost 2nd set 6-7 and actually they are playing the 3rd set.

Here is a screen shot of odds movement:

More than 600k matched @1.01, unbelievable!!!

This year is my first year in trading tennis, so I am really interested, if there are generally many upsets at Wimbledon. Feel free to share your experiences via comment or email.

I added some new features to this blog:

blog list with preview

I like this blog list with short previews of actual blog entries of other blogs. If you want to exchange links fee free to leave a comment or send an email.

search box

I also added a search box to the right panel.

When not trading I am actually developing a mobile client for Betfair. There are some solutions available for mobile devices, but they do not match my requirements. Betfair Mobile is not very comfortable, so I want to develop a mobile client for devices with Windows Mobile operating system. If you have any experiences with Betfair API feel free to contact.

When re-reading this blog entry I recognized I forgot to write about the final of Euro 2008. Well, it was a match to forget. I am really disappointed about Germany's performance. It was a final, but they were not fighting!

So congratulation to Spain!

All the best, Loocie