Thoughts on trading soccer

Hello,

I have not posted for a week, so I give an update of my last trades.

Trading tennis:

These days are only small tournaments. I was not sure how motivated players were, so I kept my stakes low and closed the trades as soon as possible. I also entered the market only, if there was a very good opportunity with low risks.

We see, I made no loss since the last blog entry in trading tennis. That is a very good sign.

Trading soccer:

In past I did not trade on soccer, because only one goal can change the odds dramatically. But soccer is the sport I know very good, so I was thinking about how to turn my knowledge into profit.

Trading the over/under does not match my style of trading. Generally when trading I take a position for a longer period, so I do not like to dip in and out of the market quickly.

During Euro 2008 I watched many games and I recognized that sometimes I can identify situations where a team dominates the match or a team is not able to shoot a goal.

I remember the match Germany vs Portugal. At the beginning Germany played really well and made two goals quickly. But after the second goal, Germany stopped playing football. They did not attack aggressive as they did it before.

Odds were really low, so for a certain period they would not shorten dramatically. We all know what happened: Portugal made a goal and score was 2-1.

The question now is, what to do, if the match did not develop as predicted. Well, it is the same like trading tennis: Take a stop loss and lose only a small amount.

I also think you have to trade out, if the opposed team has a corner or free kick. If this corner or free kick does not produce a goal, you can enter the market again. Maybe you have lost two or three ticks, because odds of a team shorten, if this team has a corner or free kick.

Yesterdays match SV Ried vs SV Kapfenberg was a very good example for closing the trade, if the opposed team has a corner or free kick.

I fancied Ried to win the match and entered the market after they scored the first time. Score was 1-0 and I entered the market a few minutes after the goal, because I was waiting to see, if Ried could continue to dominate the match. I backed Ried at 1.4x. They played well, but later they could not continue to make pressure on Kapfenberg's defence, so I decided to trade out right before a corner for Kapfenberg.

Kapfenberg equalized with this corner and odds drifted to 2.4x when the score was 1-1. I was so happy, because I closed the trade.

When trading U19 European Championship I made a huge error. I re-entered the market a few minutes before the end of the match and I can not tell you why.

Also the stake was to high, especially when I am actually learning trading soccer. But there was a trading point after Germany scored the second time and score was 2-0 and odds around 1.08.

If I remember correctly the 2nd goal was scored in the 56th minute of the game, so there was enough time for a goal of Spain. The funny thing is, they made a goal and odds drifted to 1.4x.

Conclusion how to trade soccer matches (market match odds):

• Watch the game live via TV
• Identify trading points (like U19 Germany vs Spain)
• Do not force a trade
• Close the trade, if the opposed team has a corner or a free kick

I know this conclusion is not very accurate, because identifying trading points is something what depends on your knowledge and experience of soccer, but I think it is similar to identifying trading points in tennis.

Not forcing a trade is very important. The problem is you are watching a match (and you can not watch two or more matches simultaneously) and maybe during this match you can not identify any trading points and maybe you feel watching this match is wasting your time. But that is also a part of trading.

I think there must be another rule to follow, something like "do not enter a market after xx minutes are played", but first I have to learn the odds movement in certain situations to identify such a rule.

If you have any experience in trading soccer and want to share some thoughts feel free to contact via mail or leave a comment.

Cheers, Loocie