Tennis today

Hello,

as mentioned in an earlier blog entry I decided to trade only tennis matches where players of the top 25 of ATP or WTA are involved.

Today I traded the following matches:

Wozniacki v Dulko

Dulko is not in form. She lost 8 of her last 9 matches and she lost against lower ranked players. Wozniacki lost her last 3 games, but I was very confident she could win against Dulko. I entered the market in the second set and closed the trade right after the second set was completed.

Wozniacki v Dulko 4-6, 6-0, 6-3

Cibulkova v Bartoli

That match was not easy to predict. I changed my mind during the match, because I saw Cibulkova was not serving well. I did not felt comfortable because I entered the market when odds on Bartoli were around 1.5 and I know she can be very unstable, so I scratched that. On the long term I think it was a good decision.

Cibulkova v Bartoli 3-6, 1-6

Cornet v Pironkova

Pironkova played the qualification of this tournament and so she was comfortable with the indoor hard court. She was also leading the head to head statistics. She won 2007 against Cornet on clay in straight sets.

Was not easy to trade. Market had very long the opinion that Cornet would start playing tennis and fought back. Did not happened and I greened up.

Cornet v Pironkova 2-6, 1-6

Pennetta v K Bondarenko

It's a scratched trade. Pre match odds: Pennetta 1.5, Bondarenko 2.96.

I expected a close match, because Pennetta played many matches during the last weeks in different continents over the world, so there was a possibility of fatigue of Pennetta. Bondarenko played the qualification for this tournament so she was comfortable with the indoor hard court.

I entered the market during the first set and right after I entered the market Bondarenko lost her service game. Now I can say, there was no real opportunity, when I backed Bondarenko. It was really misjudged and so much the worse I did not closed the trade and let it run. At the beginning of the 3rd set I could scratch that trade. I made to main mistakes: 1. I entered the market when there was no opportunity. 2. I did not take a stop loss. Should do it better the next time.

Pennetta v K Bondarenko 6-4, 2-6, 1-6

total profit today: +€8.66

total loss this month: -€11.57

I will do my analysis of September during the next few days. That's it for now, I wish you all the best!

Cheers, Loocie

Soccer today

Hi,

just a quick update. Doing you homework is essential. Today I traded the German Bundesliga 2 match Nurnberg vs Duisburg:

Nurnberg is not in form these days. They did not play well their last games, but odds pre match were around 1.88. This price was too short and I layed them pre match. Duisburg had the better start into the match an they put pressure on the defence of Nurnberg. Later they scored and I could green up right after 25 minutes were played.

That's it.

Cheers, Loocie

Good weekend

Hello,

I had a nice trading weekend and here is an overview of my trades:

Trading Tennis

Jankovic v Zvonareva

I misjudged the match at the start and took a stop loss early. Then I entered the market again, when I could see that Zvonareva was able to take the second set. I closed the trade with a small win.

Jankovic v Kuznetsova

I know about Kuznetsova's 'record' when playing finals, but if you are going deeper in statistics, you will have noticed she often played the finals against Justin Henin, so my initial thoughts on this match were that the 1.7 of Jankovic was too short. I entered the market on a gambling point, but I perceived very fast, that I have to close the trade. If you are in two minds about a trade or a match, get out of it as soon as possible.

Trading NFL

I was trading the match Tennessee vs Minnesota. Pre match odds on Tennessee around 1.65. They started with a good first drive but only made a field goal. The first drive of the Vikings ended in a Fumble and I got matched a lay bet of Minnesota with 10€@2.2! Lay Minnesota at 2.2 is equal to back Tennessee at 1.83 and this is higher than the pre match odds of Tennessee and they had another drive with a lead of 3 to nothing. They made a touchdown and score was 10 to nothing and I greened up. All this action was in the first quarter of the match and I was already green.

After this match I wanted to trade the match Washington vs Dallas. Pre match odds on Dallas were around 1.24 and I decided to skip this match, because I expected a sure win by Dallas.

Final result: Washington vs Dallas 26-24!

When trading NFL matches I try to get involved only in the first half. Later the odds can move to dramatically, so I am not unhappy about skipping the Dallas match. They scored a touchdown first and score after the first quarter was 7 to nothing. Not very much possibilities of trading for me.

Trading Soccer

Not very much to say. Two matches did not develop as predicted and I took a stop loss. Generally I try to avoid trading a soccer match after 60 minutes are played, because one goal ore red card can drop the odds dramatically.

Trading Formula 1

I traded the fastest lap market. After my shocking experience during the last Grand Prix I was very cautious. My first trade did not develop as predicted and I took a stop loss and I was staring on a loss of -€3.45.

Then I entered again, when Raikkonen was setting the fastest lap. I also got a lay of Massa @3.8 matched, when he restarted from a stop, but the refuelling hose was still attached to his car. I entered again when there was a second safety car period, but odds did not move and I closed the trade. Overall, I took my losses, when necessary, which paid off.

Stats so far:

total profit this weekend: +€18.98

total loss this month: -€25.62

I was very concentrated during my trades this weekend. I researched all events I wanted to trade and I took stop losses when it was necessary.

Every morning on Saturday and Sunday I research in forums and blogs for content about trading strategies and trading psychology. During this research I have found a promising blog from 'Miss Betfair':

My Swedish is very limited, so I decided to ask her for an interview about her and her trading on Betfair. The interview will be published in next few days, even if we had the time to make this interview. I also asked her for guest blogging and maybe we can read some articles from her about trading in general.

That's it for now. Wish you all the best!

Cheers, Loocie

Readjustment

Hello,

I am back from Munich. I had a very nice time there and I was also visiting the Oktoberfest.

During my holidays I had some trades and here is an overview:

Trading Soccer

I am really impressed about this profit, because I traded these matches with a maximum liability of €10.

Trading Soccer is not that easy. When reading other trading blogs or forums you mostly find people trading the over/under markets.

Before kick off I analyse both teams independent from their odds. I write down my opinion and try to create a strategy for the match. I ask myself the most important question a trader should ask: "What if...?"

So before kick off I have a plan and I know what to do and my trade is not affected by fear.

Trading Tennis

The good news: I made no loss and took stop losses when necessary.

The bad news: The way I am trading tennis! I will explain. Firstly, I did not take this business (trading tennis) serious enough during the last weeks. I often did not make any researches and analysis of players and matches. I did not create a plan for a match like I did this for trading soccer. During a soccer match there are only two or three key events and odds can move dramatically. During a tennis match there are so many swings possible and I think I am hoping too much. I am not trading, I am hoping!

I have recognized this trading behaviour when trading tennis during the last few days, when I was analysing why I do not make profit. The conclusion is: I do not do my homework!

I have re read some blogs like Mark Iverson, The Betfair Trader and punt.com to learn from their experiences. They all are very disciplined and they have a plan before they trade a match.

2008 is my first year of trading tennis, so I do not know all the players of WTA or ATP, but funnily enough I traded them. From now on I will concentrate on the Top 25 of WTA and ATP players. I do not have to trade all matches of a tennis tournament, just concentrate on players I know very good.

I also will create a database for players and matches I have traded. I need to make note of players and matches, especially with deeper information about skills of the players like serve, forehand, backhand etc.

I have created a blog entry with quotes and dos and don'ts when trading. I ought to be reminded repeatedly when trading tennis.

Stats so far:

total loss this month: -€44.60

This weekend seems to be promising. Very much action with Formula 1, MotoGP, Tennis, Soccer and NFL. But do not forget: Research any event you plan to trade.

All the best, Loocie

Dos and Don'ts when trading

• "The trick to good trading is to focus on the process rather than the outcome.
  If you do this the outcomes (i.e. P&L) will look after itself."
  
  
• "Manage your risk by trading with the right size stakes.
  This is very important and depends on 2 things - the price of the selection and the size of your trading bank."
  
  
• "Successful traders always think 'What if...?'"
  
  
• "Research any event you plan to trade."

to be continued...

Bayern Munich vs Werder Bremen

Hello,

I send you all greetings from Munich. Today I visited the German Bundesliga Match between Bayern Munich and Werder Bremen. What an incredible match!

Bayern Munich was clear favourite with odds of 1.7x pre kick off. I hope no one of you backed them, because you may have lost money. Werder Bremen played really well and scored first.

Bayern Munich was not playing well, maybe they underestimated Bremen. I think this games was not good for trading. In the first half both teams were relative equal, so everything could happen. It was not predictable.

I had no bets on this match I only enjoyed the match. Here are some impressions:

Final result:

Pre match odds on Bremen around 5.40 and Bremen won 5-2, crazy!

It was a very exiting football match with a big surprise.

Tomorrow I will visit the Oktoberfest and maybe I will post some pictures if am able to :)

I had some trades during the last days, but I will update later this week.

All the best with trading!

Cheers, Loocie

Ouch!

Hello,

today I am writing from Munich. I am visiting my brother and I will visit the Oktoberfest at the weekend too.

I had a very bad last weekend. Here is an overview of my trades since last Sunday:

Trading Formula 1

Fastest Lap market

A loss of -€71.82! How the hell is this possible? I broke my own rules and I did not accept a loss.

Maybe I could not accept a loss, because my risk and my possible loss was too high. Now I remember the words of Mark Iverson:

"If you don't do this the decisions you make will be affected by the fear of going broke even if you don't realise it at the time."

It was a crazy race with 4 or 5 different drivers who had the fastest lap meanwhile and all I did, I did it wrong. I also traded the market not in the way I traded the market in the past. Every sport is different and I have different trading strategies for different sports. Sometimes I am not concentrated enough and I trade a sport with the wrong strategy.

Regularly the fastest lap market is the only market I am trading on Formula 1. But it is always good to be attentive. Every Formula 1 weekend I follow the broadcast one hour before the race and I realised, that there was a high probability of a race start behind the safety car, so I had a look at these markets:

Safety Car

First Lap Leader

I used only small stakes, so there is only a small profit, but as you know: A small profit is better than a big loss ;)

I think it was some free money, because it was already said on German TV that there would be a start behind the safety car and there were odds of 1.29 on the Safety Car market available.

total loss Formula 1: -€62.84

Trading NFL

I had a look at Indianapolis @ Minnesota. Not very much to say. Match was not easy to trade. I scratched that and had a small loss.

total loss NFL: -€0.54

Trading Soccer

I took the stop loss very early to avoid a bigger loss. Was a good decision.

total loss Soccer: -€5.50

Trading Tennis

I used smaller stakes to get back confidence. Trading tennis last month was awful, so I only wanted to bring my tennis trading back on track.

total profit Tennis: +€2.53

stats so far:

total loss this month: -€61.36

Generally this is something what I do not understand: If I trade with smaller stakes, than I make profit, but if I use higher stakes the trade will go against me. Maybe it is a part of trading psychology, which I need to learn. If anyone has tips, articles or books which can be recommended please leave a comment or drop me an email.

Also my trading has to be more seriously. I do not take notes about matches, races and players, my money management is rubbish and too often I am not concentrated.

Actually this is my first year of trading sport events and I have learned very much. Now is the time to bring these knowledge in the right order.

All the best with trading!

Cheers, Loocie

1. FC Köln vs Bayern Munich

Hello,

yesterday I watched the German Bundesliga match 1. FC Köln vs Bayern Munich live in the RheinEnergie stadium.

Here some impressions:

Before kickoff Ümit Özat spoke to the fans and thanked them for supporting him after his collapse during the match Karlsruhe vs Köln.

This match was also a good example for reading a soccer match. If you have knowledge in soccer I think it is possible to read a game and to anticipate in which direction the match will develop. During the first half both teams did not play their best soccer and I had the feeling Bayern Munich was playing at 50%. Odds pre match:

Köln 6.00
Draw 4.10
Bayern Munich 1.68

I think odds on Bayern at half time would have been something like 2.0x.

In the 2nd half Munich started playing football and defence of Cologne was under pressure. Luca Toni scored twice and later Lukas Podolski scored during the injury time. Final score: Köln vs Bayern 0:3.

I think this was a good game for trading, because you could see, that Munich was playing at 50% during 1st half and you could see easily that they had more pressure on Cologne during 2nd half.

I know it was possible that the match would not develop as predicted, but if so, you need to take a stop loss.

That's it for now. Formula 1 and NFL later this day. I will post my trades of the last week and this weekend later or tomorrow.

Good luck for trading!

Cheers, Loocie

Premium Charges

Hi,

it seems that everyone is required to pay these new premium charges, because there is so much written about this in forums and blogs.

Actually I am not directly affected, but maybe I am affected, if the 'big traders' leave Betfair and markets liquidity would decrease.

I think we should not see only the bad things coming with this premium charges. It is possible that there is more business competition between the bet exchanges, because now more punters and traders have a look at other exchanges than Betfair.

That's all for now. All the best for trading!

Cheers, Loocie

The profit counts

Hello,

here is an overview of my last trades:

Trading Tennis:

I had this trades before my analysis of August 2008 so I did not apply my new risk management rules.

I only want to write about some matches:

A Radwanska v V Williams

Awful trading! I chased possible service breaks. I do not understand why I am doing this at the moment. The good thing is, I recognized my mistake and took the stop loss as soon as possible.

Davydenko v Muller

I entered the market just before Davydenko was beginning playing tennis. Odds moved too fast for me and I took my stop loss. Generally I should not oppose the favourite too often. Also Davydenko is an unpredictable player for me like Szavay and Kiefer. Stay away from these players!

Safina v S Williams

That was perfect trading!
Safina was leading early in the 1st set 2-0 and serving. I backed Williams 20€@1.55 when score was 2-0 and 40-40. I watched this match live and I saw Safina had problems with her service, because weather was very windy. She threw the ball very high when serving and that was her problem. Williams fought back and was leading 3-2 in the first set. Then I traded out and made it each way.

Generally weather conditions can influence a players service very much. So I need to know how the players do their service. Actually I am using the statistic software OnCourt, which helps me to evaluate players. But I need to have more comments by myself for each player. Actually I am not sure how to manage it. Excel might be a solution. OnCourt  has also a comment function, but I do not know how to export these comments, if I need to reconfigure my computer.

Trading Ice Hockey:

German Ice Hockey season has started and I tried to trade a match:

I really like these low liquid markets. People want to get involved in the market and take very often crazy odds. Odds on Berlin pre match were around 2.7x or so and they scored first. Then I backed Berlin 10€@2 and two minutes later I layed 6€@1.4 without action on the ice. Later I made it each way. In low liquid markets patience id the key. Just enter low odds under true market price and long-term you should be in profit.

Here is a screen shot of the market price:

Early goals and low odds can produce decent profits.

Trading Soccer:

Not very much to say. Barely odds movements so I scratched that.

Trading Formula 1:

What a race this Belgian Grand Prix was! Amazing! Look at Lewis Hamilton chart in the Winner market:

That's what I call a really trader's dream. At the end of the race it rained and there was very much action on track. Finally Hamilton won the race. I was not involved in trading the Winner market, I traded the Fastest Lap market:

It was not easy to trade this race. There were three driver setting the fastest lap one after the other. I think without rain at the end of the race Kovalainen could have had a chance to set the fastest lap. Overall I am in profit and that is good.

Trading NFL:

I was involved in the following matches:

 

I traded with 10€ stakes to get a feeling for the market.

Stats so far:

Tennis: -€2.01
Soccer: +€0.15
Ice Hockey: +€4.10
Formula 1: +€3.93
NFL: +€4.84

total profit this month: +€10.99

All the best with trading!

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis of August 2008

Hello,

today I have the time to write something about my analysis of August 2008. Here is an overview of my result of August 2008:

What an awful trading result!

Trading tennis:

number of matches I traded: 24
number of wins: 11
number of losses: 12
scratched trades: 1

number of wins > 3€: 8 
number of losses > 3€: 8

total win: +58.12
total loss: -110.30
total pl: -52.18

average win: +5.28
average loss: -9.19
average pl: -2.17

win rate: 48%
max win: +13.57
max loss: -37.79

I had two trades, where I took my personal stop loss too late, so I lost more than 20€ twice. Most important factor for the bad result was impatience. Trading tennis at the Olympic Games was impossible, because I had no reliable live ticker.

The tennis circuit is also near the end of the season, so players are fatigued. That is something I have to keep in my mind for trading tennis in the next weeks.

Trading 5 set matches is also something I have problems with. Odds are moving a little different to 3 set matches.

Trading Motor Sport:

I was trading Formula 1 and MotoGP:

Trading the Fastest Lap market of Formula 1 races is working good. Trading MotoGP Winner market is also interesting, but I had to learn not to get involved pre race. Last weekend I got involved pre race and took my stop loss too late, so I had a loss of -€21.84.

Trading Soccer:

That's what I call discipline! Not because there is no loss, but I scratched so many matches. Even if there would be some small losses it would be a great result. I took all stop losses and closed the trades as soon as possible. I also selected the matches carefully. Every weekend we find many matches in many football leagues, so I can watch many matches and enter a market if there is a good opportunity.

The key is to identify matches with good opportunities. It is not good to watch a game and force a trade during this game, so you can not say "I trade the Chelsea vs Manu match tonight." It is similar to tennis trading. I watch matches live or via live ticker and if I can identify a good trading opportunity, than I enter the market.

Trading other sports:

During August 2008 I had a look at other sports to trade on. Handball and Basketball can offer also good opportunities. NBA is starting in October, I think, so I will have a look. Also NFL has started and I will trade some matches.

Overview:

Tennis: -52.18
Motor Sports: +14.34
Soccer: +26.65
Others: +3.45

total loss this month: -€7.74

What is the conclusion of this month?

First of all: Discipline, discipline and discipline! That is really a serious issue. I have to handle this trading as a business. If you make profit, you are not 'winning'. 'Winning' is something I associate with lottery or something else. I think I should not speak or write about wins and losses, but more about successful and unsuccessful trades. Every trade should be handled as an investment and if this investment does not move in your predicted direction, stop it and minimize your risk and live with this unsuccessful trade.

The next issue is money management. I did not write about it in the past, because I have not found a good money management strategy for me yet.

Actually I have the rule not to lose more than 20€ per trade. But this rule is not the best. If I back a player at 1.5 with 10€, I can let this trade run and lose my whole stake without breaking the rule, but afterwards I can not call this trade as a good trade, because I lost my whole stake. Also if my initial stake is too high, I have to take a possible stop loss very quickly, because my edge of a maximum loss of 20€ can be reached very quickly.

At the moment my stake size depends on self confidence and the trading opportunity I identify. If I am exactly, it depends on my feeling about my self confidence.

So what is possible:

1. Flat stake - I have to use the same amount of money for my stake. That means I back and lay with the same amount. Depending on the odds my risk can be very low (f.e. if I lay at 1.1) or it can be very high (f.e. if I lay at 4).
   
2. Flat liability - I have to calculate my stake size depending on the odds to risk the same amount of money each trade.
   
3. Variable stake size - Sounds easy, just trade with the ideal amount of money.

I think there are more possibilities about staking. You also can adjust these three staking methods, f.e. you are using flat stakes, but the stake size depends on your bank, so maybe you say you are risking 20% of your bank on each trade.

The most important requirement for me is, the money management strategy should be simple. I do not want to calculate a complex formula to get my stake size, because very often you need to react very quickly.

I have read also articles and blog entries from other web sites about staking:

Mark Iverson - How Do You Like Your Stake?
He uses a staking strategy depending on his bankroll and the available odds:

1.01 - 1.50 = 40%
1.50 - 2.00 = 27%
2.00 - 3.00 = 13%
3.00 - 4.00 = 8%
4.00 - 5.00 = 6%
5.00 - 6.00 = 4%

The question is, how he uses this table? Only for backing or only for laying? I will explain what I mean:

Firstly, let me say I am calculating my explanation with a bank of €100, so it is easy to calculate stake size. I also only write about markets with only two outcomes.

If you lay a player or team @1.2, what is you stake and your risk? If you lay with a stake of 40% of you bank, you lay 40€@1.2, that means your risk is €8.

Remember, you want to lay a player or a team, that means, you think this player or team will not win, so you can also back the event, that the player or team will not win, so your back odds are 6. Now your stake size is 4€ according to the table above and your risk is 4€, 50% of the risk, if you lay the player or team.

Actually he has now a higher bankroll and he changed the percentage of the stakes, but the principle is the same. I will ask him and update this blog entry later.

The Betfair Trader - Trading and money management

He uses blocks of 250. That means he backs and lays with 250 and his risk is 250 if he back a selection and his risk is lower than 250 if he lays a selection because he always trades the favourite and laying the favourite seems to mean laying below odds of 2.0. He also changed this blocks of money depending on his trading bank. The most important thing is he defined an maximum amount of money he can afford to lose. When using blocks of 500 he takes a stop loss at -250, so his maximum loss should be -250.

Money management has also to do with taking stop losses, so I think it should be called risk management.

I have an actual bankroll of €96.22 and I will treat this as €100. So here is the maximum liability of every sport I trade on:

Tennis: €50
Soccer: €20
Formula 1: €50
MotoGP: €10
NFL: €10
Other Sports: €10

Depending on the liability I will set a maximum loss of 50% of the liability:

Sport	Max. Liability	Stop Loss at
Tennis	50	-25
Soccer	20	-10
Formula 1	50	-25
MotoGP	10	-5
NFL	10	-5
Other Sports	10	-5

This month (September 2009) I have had some trades, but from now on, I will follow this risk management rules and I am really interested how it works.

Much written so far, so it is time to come to an end for this blog entry. This weekend is another Formula 1 weekend, so I will trade the Fastest Lap market. Later this day we have Tennis and Soccer, but I am not sure, if I am able to trade today.

All the best for trading!

Cheers, Loocie

I lost my focus

Hello,

I had busy days and was not able to post an update of my last trades. August 2008 was not my month. I traded like a fool, had no discipline and was impatient. I will now give an update of my last trades and do the analysis for this month later.

It is really annoying that my main trading sport tennis produced a loss. I was not patient enough and I forced too much trades. I tried to anticipate possible service breaks and took stop losses too late. During some trades I was not concentrated and did some things simultaneously which was not a good idea. I know what was wrong, that's good, so I hope I can trade much better this month.

Not more to say. Hope you had better trading days, than me.

All the best, Loocie