Trading Grand Prix of Abu Dhabi


yesterday was the last Grand Prix of the 2009 Formula 1 season. Here is an overview of my trades:

Trading fastest lap was not easy, because at the beginning the odds did not move significantly, so I concentrated on the other markets. In the Safety Car market I got in trouble because of low liquidity.
Trading the Winner market was much better. I laid Hamilton at 1.49 before the first pit stop. Then the market realized that it might be difficult for Hamilton to stay on top after the pit stop and the odds moved up. The odds moved to 3.0. Then the McLaren team said on team radio that there might a problem with the car. That was a sign for me to stay in the trade and let it run. A few laps later Hamilton retired and the profit was secure.

I also got some money out of “Schumacher to Race for Ferrari”.
Overall I made +€307.08 profit during the 2009 Formula 1 season. I expected to make +€100 profit, so I am really impressed about what I achieved.

That’s it so far. Will post possible selections later.

Cheers, Loocie


JS said...

Thanks for the updates, its cool to read about F1 trading, there isn't too many F1 traders out there. I haven't got involved in any of the races this season but it looks to me that laying the favourite (with an offset) would of been a profitable stategy, particularly this season with so many competitive cars. What are your thoughts on that strategy?

Loocie said...

Hi JS,

Thanks for dropping by.
You are right, there are not that many F1 traders running a blog. A good one was http://www.flutterfly.co.uk/. Just have a look at the blog posts he wrote, really helpful.
I think laying the favourite blindly might not work. Generally what I am doing is looking at the strategies of the teams and the current odds. Yesterday Hamilton had less fuel than Vettel and Webber, so he needed a higher margin to stay on top after the first pit stop. When he was @1.49 he was just 1.6s in front. This was a lay for me.
Generally on Formula 1 you need to identify false prices. A good example is the Qualify for Q3 market. Sometimes you can lay at really low odds(1.1x), because people often just bet based on driver names.
Here is a list with some websites I am using when trading/betting on Formula 1:

Hope it helps a little.

Cheers, Loocie

JS said...

Thanks for your reply Loocie, I'm just catching up on some blog posts today that's why it's taken me so long to get back to you! Yes I did notice that flutterfly blog previously, was a great find and I was a bit gutted to see it had been discontinued. Thanks for the links, I don't think my knowledge is quite up to scratch to trade these markets but I'll certainly be looking at them with increased interest next season. Thanks again for your insights.