2009-03-20

Wasting Self Confidence

Hello,

before I start writing about my trading since last update I want to mention the first birthday of the blog.

Happy Birthday
First blog post was on 17.03.2008 and this week on Tuesday the blog celebrated its first birthday. I learned a lot during the first year of blogging about my trading and I think my approach on trading on sport events has changed to a little more professional approach. I do not want to make a review on the first year of blogging and trading, because I do this every month on my analyses.

Here is an overview of my trades since last update:
overviewJust 3 bad trades let me staring on a red figure of -EUR50.89. Trading the 2009 BNP Paribas Open was not that easy. Scoreboard was not reliable, TV coverage was poor and often Betfair was not available. I do not want to complain about these issues, because those were not reasons for the loss. I started really well on trading the matches, but almost in every match I had to scratch my position and waiting again for an opportunity. It was a game of patience and discipline. During the following matches I lost my patience and discipline:

A Radwanska v Wozniak
Took a position early in the 2nd set. Scratched that, but no problem. Entered again, when Radwanska was serving for match. How the hell could I do that? Wasn’t a trading opportunity. Just wasting money.

Llagostera Vives v Kleybanova
Took a position when Kleybanova was 4-2 down in the 1st set. Really good trading opportunity, but did not pay off. Took stop loss. Everything fine so far. Started to entering again and again during the 2nd set. Was completely chasing a possible break. Again wasting money.

A Radwanska v Pavlyuchenkova
Backed Radwanska early in the 1st set. Radwanska made the break, I minimized risk, should have made it each way, but thought Radwanska can win 1st set easily. Pavlyuchenkova fought back, had to scratch the trade. Everything fine. Radwanska lost 1st set 7-6. Again I started chasing a possible break and added more money to the loss. Throwing the money far away.

It is not the amount of money I lost which annoys me. When doing these stupid things you also lose your self confidence very easily. Self confidence is so important when trading, so if you make stupid trades, you do not just lose money, you also lose self confidence for the next trades.
Mostly if I miss a trading opportunity or if I have to scratch a trade I try to force another trade. This is really an issue I have to work on.

Stats so far:
Total loss since last update: –50.89
Total profit this month: 40.04

This blog post seems to be so negative, so I want to add some good news:
For the future we will read some articles from a guest blogger called Philip Oliver. I am looking forward for his articles and hope we can take advantage of his views and thought on tennis.

That’s it for now. Be patient when trading ;)

Cheers, Loocie

2 comments:

Anthony said...

Unlucky on your latest trades. It's hard when you feel you're really moving forward but can't seem to get any profit on the board. I used to often think "I can do this, if I keep jumping in it'll work out in the end" but if you've already got a loss on an event I feel it clouds your judgement and even if the trade goes your way you won't see green until you've recovered your loss. Now, when I have a loss I either forget it and move on or wait until the match is nearly over and lay very low because at very low odds a small recovery can reduce your loss significantly for very little additional risk.
We recently discussed using some or all of your profit accrued on match to then enter again. I know it's not really your style but in the Radwanska match you could have estimated how far she would have moved if she had held on to win the set and lay her for most of your profit. If she struggles on a service game you can start to back some off and leave half of it on her opponent so if they flip-flop and she loses the set you have alot of profit to play with. If you still feel she will eventually win you can lay Pavlyuchenkova to leave nil on her and all of it on Radwanska. If she wins you will have probably won your entire starting stake.
Good luck on your next trades.

Loocie said...

Hi Anthony,

thanks for sharing your thougts. Much appreciated!

Generally I have no problem with a loss, because I know it is a part of trading. I just have a problem when I make these stupid mistakes. I know I need to learn to be more focused and I need to keep a cool head, if I have to scratch a trade or if I miss a trading opportunity.

If I have a loss because the market did not develop as predicted I can easily forget the trade and move on to the next match.

I agree with you to start a small recovery with laying low. Actually I did that in the Radwanska match, but I did not take the stop loss at nearly -EUR15. I was just hoping for Radwanska to turn the match.

All the best for you.

Cheers, Loocie