2010-02-05 16:30 Catt DESOLAIT 6th
Update:
I got matched early at 3.9 while Betfair starting price was 3.88.
NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.
Cheers, Loocie
Hello,
a quite week so far on the trading front for me. Did not yet traded a single event this week. Did a lot of work on the betting bots. Muxor and me converted all the historical data from LaylaCheval and HorstBecker from the excel sheets into our MySQL database.
Let’s have a look at some key facts:
HorstBecker
Number of racing days: 97
Total P&L in points: +88.56 pt
Max Daily Loss: –38.34 pt
Max Daily Profit: +51.85 pt
The data are calculated with a 1 point level stake per selection.
We started putting money on the selections nearly the highest level of the profit. The good thing is that it is still in profit, but we need to apply some filters. Actually I have not yet done all the analysis work, but so far it is quite interesting that there are some courses which are not profitable, for example Southwell produced a loss of -72.05 points, Lingfield produced a loss of -51.07 points , but Kempton produced a profit of +51.92 points and Carlisle produced a profit of +36.41 points.
Once the analysis of all the data is done and all filters are defined I will give it another try with putting money on it.
LaylaCheval
Number of racing days: 118
Total P&L: +206.56 pt
Max Daily Loss: –47.05 pt
Max Daily Profit: +65.72 pt
The data are calculated with a 1 point level stake per selection.
The same here again. We started putting money on the selections at the peak of the graph. All over it is in profit, but the down trend right after we entered was too heavy. Here is an overview of some of the courses P&L for LaylaCheval:
Southwell: -40.88 pt
Lingfield: -15.79 pt
Kempton: +34.72 pt
Carlisle: +21.41 pt
It is quite obvious that there are some courses which are negative for both bots and some are profitable for both bots.
Conclusion
So what’s the conclusion of all the numbers?
First, there is something going in the right direction with both bots. The results are promising, but not yet the way I like it.
Second, I need to identify some reliable filters to maximize the profit and to protect the bank roll from a bad run.
That’s it for now.
All the best, Loocie
No selection.
NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.
Cheers, Loocie
No selection.
NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.
Cheers, Loocie
No selection.
NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.
Cheers, Loocie
No selection.
NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.
Cheers, Loocie
Hello,
this month was not the best one for me. “Disappointing” describes it the best.
American Football: -€34.72
Hmm…What to say about it? My strategy did not work the way I expected it. Maybe I am looking for too big odds movements. Need to do some more research.
Basketball: €1.88
Did not traded really Basketball. This figure just came from developing the bet matching for a bot.
Horse Racing: –€17.70
I started well with three profitable selections in a row at decent odds. Then two losers turned the month into a negative one. This can happen, so I am not too worried about. There will be better months for sure.
Soccer: -€1.39
I had two bets this weekend: B Munich v Mainz on Over/Under 2.5 goals market and Stuttgart v Dortmund : Match Odds market. The later one lost, so I made a small loss.
Tennis: –€14.52
The first month of a tennis season is always a tough one. There is really much uncertainty about the players form in the first few matches.
One of my main goals during 2010 is to become more professional in the way I am trading. I kept record of my trades and if you have a look at the numbers, it is not that bad, except the strike rate:
Total Trades 35
Win Trades 15
Loss Trades 19
Scratched 1
Strike Rate 44.52%
Average Win +10.24
Average Loss: –8.85
Generally I have a strike rate of 55-60% of profitable trades. This month I was not patient enough. I entered too many matches. Here is a graph of the progress of the P&L figure:
January Total P&L: -€66.45
A disappointing month and a disappointing start into the trading year 2010, but this is just a bigger motivation for me for the next months. I know I can do better and I am sure I will.
What about the betting bots?
They are currently running in simulation mode and it seems the horrible weeks are behind us. I need to apply rules to protect the bank roll from those bad runs with daily maximum allowed losses. This might reduce the possible profit, but it also helps to stay in the game.
This week Betfair’s API service was totally crap. Today the API service was down again for sixth time this week alone.
LaylaCheval could have produced a profit of 50 points this month with the new filters and rules. I will work out the past results with the new filter and if this works I will give it another try.
HorstBecker is not yet performing as expected. I have not yet done all the research and analysing of the results with new filters and rules. So still a lot of work in front.
That’s it so far.
Cheers, Loocie
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