Value in Baseball

Hello,

today I will give an overview of the baseball betting so far. Baseball is a sport with lots of data and statistics, so it is possible to create a system based on this statistics. There are also many games during a season, so on the long term value betting will pay off during a season.

The idea of the baseball system came from the trader I interviewed on February this year. The goal is to find value in baseball matches. So we created an excel sheet were we enter the actual Betfair odds and the sheet will tell us the matches to bet on.

Have a look at the data so far:

Number of total matches: 417
Number of selections: 71
Number of back selections: 46
Number of lay selections: 25

Number of bets won: 44
Number of bets lost: 27
Strike Rate: 62%

Number of back bets won: 29
Number of back bets lost: 17
Strike Rate back bets: 63%

Number of lay bets won: 15
Number of lay bets lost: 10
Strike Rate lay bets: 60%

Fixed Unit Staking
Total Profit/Loss: +13.65 points
Total Profit/Loss back bets: +5.76 points
Total Profit/Loss lay bets: +7.89 points

Weighted Staking
Total Profit/Loss: +23.95 points
Total Profit/Loss back bets: +10.02 points
Total Profit/Loss lay bets: +13.93  points

Average winning back odds (back bets): 1.78
Average winning lay odds (lay bets): 1.84

The weighted stake is calculated by the estimated value per bet, that means the more value the bet has, the higher the stake size will be.

I know we have not yet enough data entries, but the system has performed well so far. The profit grows steady without a big volatility.

At the moment we just enter the odds and data manually into the excel sheet which costs 30 minutes per day. If the system is still in profit over a longer period I will create an application which will do all the work for us, inclusive placing bets on Betfair on the suggested matches.

I will keep you up-to-date.

Cheers, Loocie