Analysis Of September 2009

Hello,

During the last few weeks I did not write that much about my trading in detail. The month is almost over, so I will take the time to give you an update how I was doing.
Here is an overview of this months result sorted by sport:

American Football: €27.14
I am investing some money in the free selections of Stock Lemon. There are some good free tipsters outside, so why do not participate?

Horse Racing: €15.35
That’s the profit of my horse lay selections. Not much profit, but still a profit. This month I hade just a few selections.

Motor Sport: €42.14  
Trading Formula 1 races is working really well for me. I am discovering more and more markets of this sport. There is so much value on it. Fantastic!

Tennis: €39.07
During the last few months I struggled a little when trading tennis matches. I think it was a good example of over trading and taking too early too much risk. I tried to be successful in every match. But that is not possible. Losing money in some markets is not the problem. It is not about making profit in as much markets as you can. You just need to cover your losses with your winnings.

Total P&L: €123.70

A good result for me. It shows me that I am on the right track with my new view of trading.

I spent my time not only on trading on sports events. I also did some work on the betting bot front. I already created a bot for another bot for laying horses. Therefore I am also using websites like Timeform. Today I found an interesting race from yesterday:

 
Amenable won with a BSP of 320!! Amazing! The favourite traded in play at 1.06 and lost.
The bot is doing the selections automatically based on certain criteria, but at the moment I am doing the summary of every single race manually via Timeform. The bot selected more than 1000 horses to lay during the last 3 or 4 weeks, so you guess it also lays at higher odds. Therefore I need to collect more data, to see if it might be profitable or not.

I also worked on my Betfair API framework which is in a good progress. Everything is working fine at the moment, but it is a lot of work.

I will keep you updated!

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selections.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selections.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selections.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selections.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selections.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selections.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selections.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

2009-09-23    15:00    Perth    BEIDH TINE ANSEO 5th

Update:
BEIDH TINE ANSEO finished 5th. I got matched at 3.55 while Betfair starting price was 4.0. Good stuff!

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selections.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today's selection:

No selection.

NB: All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

2009-09-18    15:40    Newm    ROBINSON CRUSO  6th

Update: ROBINSON CRUSO finished 6th. I got matched at 4.5 while Betfair starting price was 5.53.
There will be no selections on Saturday and Sunday.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selections. 

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Status Quo

Hello everybody,

Today I want to share some thoughts about the way I am thinking about trading sport events.

During the last six month my view of trading has changed significantly. When I started trading on sport events I was fascinated to have the opportunity to be all green even if the sport event is still in progress. It was also my main goal, to be green when the sport event is still in progress. 
During the last months I recognized that this “idea” is not that bad, but it does not raised my profits. Too often I cut my losses too early or I got out of a trade too early, which cut my potential winnings. I also thought trading is the only way to make profit.

My horses lay selections showed me, that it is possible to make money with pure punting. It is all about value. Yes, many of you now will think “That’s what everybody is talking about”. But it is important to understand the concept of getting value on your selections you place bets on.

Making profit on trading and betting on sport events is not about posting all green screenshots. It is about the long term view. A single selection does not decides if you are making profit or loss. I am not talking about the new holy grail on trading or betting, but I am getting more and more aware of value betting and long term view.

If you are a regular reader you will have noticed that I am not writing in detail about my tennis results anymore. At the beginning of my blog I wrote many blog entries about identifying good entry points and exit points, also about the bad ones. I wrote about looking at match statistics and how you can take advantage of that. I stopped writing about my tennis trading in detail, because I do not want to bore you with the same again and again.

During this year I struggled a little with my tennis trading. At the moment I am break even. There is one thing I have really problems with: When I watch a tennis match (via TV or scoreboard) from the beginning to the end I can not identify good trading opportunities. But if I turn on the laptop and look at the scoreboard and the odds while the match is already in progress I can tell you easily if a price of a player is too low or too high in a current match situation.
I recognized this ability when analysing my style of trading the fastest lap market on Formula 1 races. I am doing the same there. I know which odds are right and wrong and place bets depending on what is going on. And I am placing many bets during a race. I do not have problems to lay high odds of 6.0. I am feeling confident about making the right decision.
When I trade tennis matches from the start I often can not trust my thoughts about the possibility of a comeback of a player when he is a set or a break down, because the odds move steady.

I know I need to change my view of trading an betting. It should be a view of investing. Investing on the outcome of sport events. The tennis season is on its final stages. I do not expect that much improvement, but I want to have a look on the matches with the view of an investor. Taking snapshots from matches from time to time and invest in the outcome depending on the situation, that means looking for value odds in play.

Another reason to change my style of trading on sport events is lack of time. I am also working on various ideas about automated and semi automated betting and trading.
Currently I am working on a Betfair API framework for creating bots for some strategies I am investigating at the moment. The framework is in its final stages.
If this work is done I will start to create a bot for doing the baseball selections for me. Most of the money comes in a few minutes before the matches start and mostly this is during night in Europe. So I need someone doing the work for me every night.
I also have some more ideas about the horses. Therefore I will create some software doing some work on data mining and bets placing.

Another promising project I have started is a trading system for over/under markets in football. At the moment I am tracking my trades via Excel, but I am sure I will start this with real money soon.

The goal for the rest of 2009 for me is to progress on the software front and get one of the bots running to post some nice green figures on the blog. Hopefully the hard work will pay off.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

2009-09-16    14:20    Sand    DRIFT AND DREAM  2nd

Update:
DRIFT AND DREAM finished 2nd. I got matched at 4.8 early this afternoon while Betfair starting price was 4.8 too. It is always good to come back after a loss.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selections. 

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selections. 

Additional Information: We need to be patient. There is not need to chase the loss of the last selection. We will fight back. Soon.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Formula 1 – Italian GP

Hello,

This weekend I traded the Formula 1 Grand Prix in Italy. Here is an overview of the markets I traded on:

Yesterday I traded the Overall Qualifying Winner market. I recognized some nice trading opportunities, but I still need to learn more about the odds movement in this market.

Today I focused on the Fastest Lap market and the Winner market too. Trading the fastest lap market was quite difficult. I had just EUR13.77 on Sutil, who marked the fastest lap. I expected Hamilton to drive faster at the end, but he did not managed to get the fastest lap. I am still happy about the profit.

The winner market was quite interesting and I identified an opportunity to lay Hamilton at 1.69 early. Everything went fine for both Brawn cars and for me too :)

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selections. 

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selections. 

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selections. 

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

2009-09-10    18:05    Kemp (AW)    FALLEN IDOL 1st

Update:
Fallen Idol won the race. I got matched at 4.6 (BSP: 5.80). Losing is part of the game. No problem with that. Next profitable races will come.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selections. 

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

2009-09-08    14:00    Good    BELL ISLAND  5th

Update:
Bell Island was backed heavily pre match and its odds dropped to a Betfair starting price of 3.78. I laid it at 4.6 when I published my selection. It finished 5th and I am happy about another profit.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selections. 

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selections. 

Additional information:
There will be no selections on Saturday and Sunday. I am on the road to visit the family. Enjoy the weekend!

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

2009-09-03    15:50    Salis    CONNIPTION  5th

Update:
Conniption finished 5th. I got matched at 2.88 (BSP: 3.01). Another good selection it was and I am happy about the profit.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selections. 

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

Hello,

Today’s selections:

2009-09-01    15:00    Ripon    IRON VELVET  9th

Update:
A good start to the month is always helpful. Iron Velvet finished the race at the end of the field. I got matched at 3.85 (BSP: 4.67). That is why I always recommend to take early prices on my lay selections.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie