Return To Normal Life

Hello,

first of all sorry for the lack of updates during the last month and thanks to Philip Oliver for his thoughts on betting on Roland Garros.

The last few weeks have been very busy at work. I also had to do lots of things to get a new car. I am happy to say that all this stuff is done and I can return to normal life.

During the last few weeks I also traded some sport events, but this was not a good idea. I was not 100% concentrated and produced the following result:

  
I started the trading month with a loss of -EUR50.47 in the match Bammer v Li, so the struggle of the last month continued. To be honest I can not afford to lose such an amount in a single match. My actual trading bank is ca. EUR383, so the loss of -EUR50.47 is 13% of my bank. You do not need to be an expert, but losing 13% of your trading bank in a single trade is not acceptable. During the last few weeks I had to take a stop loss or at least to scratch the trades in so many occasions. Here is an example of a trade of the last month:

During the match Domachowska v Kirilenko I could identify good opportunities, but after 3 successful trades (entering and then scratching) I took my stop loss too late and produced a loss
of -EUR3.39. It is not a big amount (just 0.88% of my trading bank), but it is still a loss. If you have ten of these trades, you lose -EUR33.90 which is ca. 10% of the trading bank. I had lots of such trades, so if I had a successful trade, mostly I cut my winnings, because I just want to have a single trade where my assumption of the match developing was right. Any successful trader would now start laughing, because this a common mistake of a novice trader.

Two weeks ago I started reading a book of Van K. Tharp about trading. The more I read the more I realised that I do not have a really good trading strategy for tennis. Also my setup is not that professional that it should be. As a software developer I should not be that difficult to create a setup for me, which helps me to trade without emotions.

In this book I could also find information about how to measure your trading strategy. I never measured my “strategy” in the past so it is quite funny that I set a goal for myself to reach a net profit if EUR1000 at the end of the trading year.

Maybe it sounds crazy, but in tennis I need to start again from scratch. I want to have a tennis trading strategy (or maybe a set of strategies) which is measurable and which can be applied without subjective decisions.

Mostly when trading on tennis I am watching for big odds movements. I am also thinking about looking for smaller odds movement, f.e. to look for a movement of 25 ticks in my favour with a maximum risk of 10 ticks against me. This may lead to having more trades, which is also in my favour, because it is a little annoying for me to watch matches without getting involved.

I also started to put money on my laying selections on the horses. The results are promising, so I will give it a try. I am also following the tips of Horse Racing Tips and Nose Ahead. I am tracking all the bets via Excel so I will give a complete overview during the next few days.

 
The MLB Baseball season has already started and a mate came across with a nice idea to bet on those matches. So give it a try too. Yesterdays result where really good, 4 out of 4 winners. I use Betfair and Betdaq to get my selections at certain odds matched.

It is quite funny: I started with the idea to trade on sports and now I am beginning to turn to betting. I am still convinced I can make money on trading on tennis, but I need to get an approach which suits my personality. Haven’t found it so far.

There will be also some changes to the blog too. I do not want to post the profit/loss figure on a daily bases. It does not help any readers and it does not help me. Often I try to force a trade to turn a red figure into a green figure to avoid posting a loss on the blog. Losing is a part of the game. If you have a measurable strategy (trading or betting, does not matter) then on long term the profit will come. So I will just post my profit/loss on a monthly bases.

Total loss this month: –EUR24.50

Cheers, Loocie

Draw opens up for Sharapova comeback

I have previously noted that the women’s draw at the French Open is wide open and this is particularly true of the second quarter. With sixth seed Vera Zvonareva pulling out due to injury, the opportunity is there for other players to challenge for a quarter final place.

Maria Sharapova could be the biggest beneficiary. The three-time Grand Slam winner is feeling her way back after a nightmare run of shoulder problems and this tournament was thought to be too early in her comeback for her to be able to challenge for silverware.

The Russian has slipped to 102nd in the world rankings due to her inactivity and there were serious doubts about her ability to cover the court and play a series of tiring three set matches. These concerns were assuaged by her fine recovery to beat 11th seed Nadia Petrova in the second round, having already gone the distance in winning her opener.

A qualifier awaits in the third round and Sharapova can be excused for looking further ahead. Venus Williams, seeded third, is a potential quarter final opponent, although it would almost be a surprise for the American to reach the last eight, as she is struggling for fluency on her least favourite surface.

She has failed to reach the quarter finals in seven of her 12 Roland Garros appearances. Agnes Szavay could therefore be the biggest obstacle to a potential semi final meeting with number one seed Dinara Safina or holder Ana Ivanovic.

With regards to tennis betting, Sharapova is unlikely to win her first French Open title, as compatriots Safina and Svetlana Kuznetsova are just two of the players performing at a higher level. However, with moderate ranking points to protect Sharapova, she should continue her rise up the rankings and arrive at Wimbledon next month as a serious title challenger.

Women's title wide open at Roland Garros

With regards to tennis betting and the fact that Rafael Nadal is set to dominate the men’s draw at the French Open, thoughts of picking an outright winner turn to the women. There are plenty of players in with a shout at Roland Garros, especially as it is the least favoured Grand Slam of the Williams sisters, winners of the last three majors.

Venus and Serena have both had troubled preparation. Although this is not usually a problem for them ahead of big tournaments, the fact that only one of their combined haul of 17 slams, Serena in 2002, has come in Paris means this is an ideal opportunity to bet against them.

Serena, troubled by injury, has recently lost three consecutive matches for just the second time in her career, whilst Venus crashed out in the second round at the Madrid Masters. Madrid is the final high-profile clay warm-up, so the protagonists here should be closely followed at Roland Garros.

As well as current form, the records on clay and Grand Slam performance should be examined and it is safe to say no player jumps out demanding selection. Dinara Safina is the latest player to rise to world number one without winning a slam and this is her best opportunity to date. She was runner-up to Ana Ivanovic last year at Paris and also reached this year’s Australian Open final, but the suspicion remains that she has the game but not the attitude to win major finals.

Ivanovic is struggling with injury and lacks the consistency to retain the title, whilst compatriot Jelena Jankovic is rebuilding her game after a poor start to the season. This might be one tournament too soon for the former number one to challenge in.

Elena Dementieva is yet to find a way of dealing with her nerves on the big occasion, although she should be backed to reach the last four. The latter stages could well be dominated by Russians and it would be no surprise to see at least four players from that country in the quarter finals, as there were at the Australian Open.

Vera Zvonareva impressed in Melbourne and won at Indian Wells and I expect her to go well in Paris, although she is suffering from an ankle problem and might miss out. Svetlana Kuznetsova is a consistent performer at slams and having reached the final and semi finals in Paris recently, is a good bet to go all the way.

Update

Hello,

sorry for the lack of updates during the last few days.
Someone crashed into my parked car and I had to clarify a few details with the insurance. I am still driving a rented car, so there are some issues I need to clarify during the next week. Hopefully I can get back to regular stuff in a few days.

At the moment I am also reading a book of Van K. Tharp about trading. More and more I realise, that I have to change a lot when trading. I will discuss this in further blog posts.

All the best when trading (or just parking your car)!

Cheers, Loocie

Nadal and the novelty bet

The clay court part of the season is well underway, which inevitably means Rafael Nadal is carrying all before him. If he was in decent form before, the move to his favourite surface has made the world number one appear unbeatable.
This leads punters to ponder how far that statement can be taken in betting terms. Not many will be betting against the Spaniard in next month’s French Open – at the time of writing he can be backed at 1.35 to claim his fifth consecutive Roland Garros title – and the early straight bet that some will look at is whether the champion will lose a set.
Nadal is currently on offer at 3.5 to win every set he plays on the way to glory and whilst this market is underdeveloped, it is severely tempting.
A small amount of research reveals Nadal has lost just seven sets in winning his last four titles in Paris, none of which were dropped last year. Indeed, he lost only 41 games in the 2008 tournament, meaning his average set score throughout the event was approximately 6-2. Roger Federer was brushed aside one, three and love in the final.
Such a novelty bet is always worth researching (as the punters who made a huge profit from hole-in-one golf bets will testify; they discovered nearly 50% of professional golf tournaments contain a hole-in-one and took advantage of generous odds at independent bookmakers).
However, instinct always plays a part in these instances. For example, the current World snooker championships, packed full of century breaks, appeared from the outset a good event to back a 147 maximum break being made. Stephen Hendry duly obliged.
In the same way Nadal gives the impression that he can repeat his clean sweep of sets at the French Open, as he is playing even better than last time around and had has opened a wider gap between himself and Federer and his other rivals.
This could be a common theme for tennis punters over the coming months: the question is not if Nadal will win, but rather by what distance.

By Philip Oliver