Hello,
I am still recovering from my shingles and it will take some more time, than I expected. I am not trading these days, which is really disappointing during a grand slam tournament.
However, I take the time to rethink about my first trades of the year. The most annoying trade for me was in the match Wozniacki v Dokic. I backed Wozniacki @1.32 during the 2nd set when score was 3-1 for Dokic. I expected odds on Wozniacki @1.45, if she loses the 2nd set, but the odds drifted to 1.75, when she lost the 2nd set 1-6.
The first major mistake I made was not defining a stop loss mark, when I backed Wozniacki. I agree with many other traders, you need to know your stop loss mark when you put on a trade. So the question is:
How to define your stop loss mark correctly?
My trading is based on the knowledge about odds moving. When I put on a trade I can not say who will win the match, but I can say if there is a value for me of odds movement, e.g. in certain situations I know the odds will move only a few ticks lower, but there is a high probability that the odds will raise. If I can identify such a situation I will put on a trade, because more often than not the odds will move in my favour and on a long term view the losses will be smaller than my winnings.
During the match Wozniacki v Dokic I had two (maybe more) options to define my stop loss mark:
Let’s do a little calculation:
The total loss in the first case is very much higher, than the total loss in the 2nd case. The question now is, which method is the better one?
The odds during a tennis match can move dramatically, even in a service game. If the score in a service game is 0*-30 I think my 1st stop loss mark would be reached and I had to take the stop loss, even if the score would turn to 2-3*.
Generally I have more winning trades, than losing trades, so if I can apply a rule, that I take a stop loss, when the total loss is equal to the total possible win.
For the match Wozniacki v Dokic it means:
Back Wozniacki €50@1.32:
Total possible profit: +€16.00
Stop loss market: –€16.00, which is equal to a lay Wozniacki €34@1.94
Generally there is no need to wait until this stop loss market is reached. I think it is more a maximum loss mark. If you can identify earlier, that your trade does not pay off, you do not have to wait for the stop loss mark, you can take the red earlier. In the match Wozniacki v Dokic I should have made it each way red, when Dokic won the 2nd set and odds on Wozniacki moved to 1.75, because I have the rule not to trade during a deciding set.
What’s the conclusion for me now?
Notice:
It is important to mention that the possible profit is not the profit you would gain, if would let the trade run as a bet. I will explain this:
Very often I back the favourite, if he loses the first set, but the stats are relative equal, e.g.:
Pre match odds: Player A: 1.52, Player B: 2.9
If player B wins the first set, the odds would be:
Player A: 3.00, Player B: 1.51.
I would close the trade, if player A wins the second set and odds would move to: Player A: 1.55, Player B: 2.80.
So the possible profit would be:
Lay Player B €37@1.51,
Lay Player A €36.04@1.55
Total profit: +€17.17
So the maximum loss is –€17.17 and not –€37.00, which is the possible profit, if you let the trade run as a bet.
I am not sure, if this method is the best method to take a stop loss, but I think this method is more adjusted to a specific trade, than a static stop loss mark like a number of ticks or a defined amount of money.
Would be nice to read some comments about this issue.
All the best and stay healthy!
Cheers, Loocie
Hello,
I will give an update of my trades in the last few days:
Trading Tennis
During Olympic Games I had not very much trading activity in tennis. I traded some matches, but this ended not profitable:
Hantuchova v Sugiyama +€0.45
Bammer v Zvonareva +€4.95
V Williams v Li +€3.99
Blake v Gonzalez -€23.56
Li v Safina +€9.05
I also traded the match Paszek v Cetkovska, a first round match at 2008 Western & Southern Financial Masters Women's Open. I applied a free lay, but I did not take the stop loss. I let my loss run. What a stupid mistake! I lost -€37.79, which is more than I can afford to lose. I think I forced a trade and was not patient enough. If I had taken the stop loss I would have lost only 8€.
Trading Handball
During The Olympic Games I watched some sports closely. I think Basketball and Handball are also good sports to trade on. Only liquidity can be a problem. I traded the Handball match Russia v Germany and could make some profit:
I had a liability of only 5€, so it is a nice return on investment. Trading Handball seems to be similar to trading Basketball. Early low odds can give you a very good position to make profit. I will have a look at this issue and try to develop a strategy to make profit in these markets.
Trading Soccer
I traded soccer in the past, but without success. Mostly if I make a loss, I make two mistakes: I do not take a stop loss and/or I force a trade.
I was a little but surprised about my losses when trading soccer in the past, because soccer is the sport I have the most knowledge, even more than in tennis and tennis is the sport I make the most of my profits.
In my analysis of July 2008, I decided to trade soccer only on paper, but I recognized, this is not the same like trading with real money. I did not made the same decisions, when trading on paper.
The new soccer season has started and I could identify good opportunities to make profit:
I did not force a trade and took stop losses, if necessary. That's trading!
Trading MotoGP
Today I watched the MotoGP race in Czech Republic. Generally we can see many actions of overtaking, more than in Formula 1, so the odds are flipping.
My trades:
Not very much profit, but it seems promising. There is a decent profit possible and I will have a look at future races.
Later this day I will have a look at German Bundesliga. Maybe I will update later.
Stats so far:
total loss this month: -€18.98
All the best,
Loocie
Hello,
well, I don't like the Olympic Games! There are so many sports, that's fantastic, but in Germany you can not trade them seriously. TV coverage is awful. They are jumping from sport to sport, so you do not know which sport is really live covered and which sport is a replay.
They also show boring sports like shooting or sailing. You can not trade them!
The tennis event at the Olympics is in progress, but there is not very much liquidity in Betfair markets and there isn't a working scoreboard for trading.
I took the time to do some paper trading of soccer. Last weekend German's football season has started with the first round of German Cup. At the moment I am in profit 'on paper' and I will have a look at the first matches of the German Bundesliga Season 2008/2009. I will try some strategies on Match Odds market and Correct Score market.
Actually I can say, the most powerful tool for trading these markets is using a stop loss. I will update my progress on paper next weekend.
Wish you all the best with trading!
Cheers, Loocie
Safin v BerdychThis trade was an example of the 2nd approach. I think it is important to identify the reason why you want to take a position before you take this position.
Bartoli v Mattek
This was a very good example of a free lay. Mattek was leading 5-4 in 1st set and Bartoli was serving. Bartoli took a medical timeout and I backed Mattek @1.83. I expected Bartoli to retire so I was waiting until the first ball was played in 2nd set. When Mattek was serving 1st in 2nd set I closed the trade.
Berdych v Verdasco
Verdasco won 1st set 6-4 and I layed him @1.46. I was looking for an profit of 20% ROI each way, so I needed back odds arround 1.63. During this 2nd set I got some money matched @1.63, but Berdych did not improve and I scratched the trade @ 1.47 right before Verdasco made the break. The match did not develope as predicted so I decided to close this trade. Was a very good decision, Verdasco won this match 6-4, 6-4, 6-0.
Lopez v Reynolds
Another match where I expected odds movement. I think it was in 3rd set and Reynolds had 2 break points. I layed Lopez @1,11 and baked him @1,13. With a liability of 50.00€ I could produce a profit of 12.39€, more than 20% ROI.
Stats so far:
total profit yesterday: +30.01€
total profit this month: +68.42€
All the best, Loocie
Hi,
was a long time since my last blog entry. First I want to write about my trading results from 2008 French Open.
First day of trading 2008 French Open produced a loss of -14.09€. I think this was not a bad trade, but I was really upset about Vaidisova losing 2nd set 1-6.
With this loss I lost some self confidence and got nervous when trading Gremelmayr v Djokovic. Took "stop loss" and lost again. So two negative trades and I became scared of losing the money I was working so hard for.
I traded Robredo v Coria and Coria won 1st set 7-5. I entered the match and backed Robredo. Was a good trade, but I got nervous again, because match did not develop in the first games of 2nd set so I scratched that trade. After scratching Robredo broke Coria and won 2nd set 6-4. Final result Robredo v Coria 5-7, 6-4, 6-1, 6-4.
All you need is self confidence with your selections. Two trades (Djokovic and Robredo) could have produced a decent profit, but I cut my winnings and had a small loss.
Cetkovska v A Bondarenko produced a loss of -15.65€ and I stopped trading with a clear head and started trades of frustration and gambling.
The biggest loss was in the match Pennetta v Suarez Navarro.
I lost -77.25€. I did not take a stop loss, I put more money on Pennetta.
Generally I have to learn to accept losses. That is really difficult.
I was rethinking about my way to trade tennis matches. Generally I know when to enter a match, but I have problems to find the perfect moment to close the trade. I will give an example:
Yesterdays women's final between Ivanovic and Safina: I layed Ivanovic @1.41 after she broke Safina in 1st game. I wanted to make a profit of 20%, so I needed back odds of 1.54. I watched the match via Eurosport Germany and Safina was not playing bad, but Ivanovic was leading 4-1 and I layed her again @1.26. Safina was fighting and she could equalize and score was 4-4 in 1st set.
Now, I want to describe the differences between my old style of trading and my new style of trading:
In the past I would have waited for Safina to win the 1st set. That means I was waiting for a complete turn in the match. But this does not happen very often.
Now, I am only looking for an opportunity where the score can be equalized. I know the match can turn completely, but to stay in profit I do not need a complete turn. I backed Ivanovic when Safina had the break point to equalize to 4-4 and I was in profit.
Ivanovic won this match 6-4, 6-3 and with my old style of trading I would have produced a big loss although I identified a good trading opportunity.
I applied this new trading style since a week and could produce a nice profit.
Stats so far:
total profit May: +1.36€
total profit this week: +57.43€
total loss this month: -19.82€
All the best, Loocie
So now I finally found time to write down my trades on the masters series event in Monte Carlo.
Started in the tournament with a loss trade, simillar to Loocies trade on the match, but was glad that finally I managed to cut losses and not losing always 100% of my stake.
Lopez - Murray
Loss: 10,88€ (-55% ROI)
Andreev - Tursunov
Layed Andreev at 1.25, because I expected him to choke. He didn't and his whole performance at this tournament is really very good and impressive.
Loss: 5,00€ (-100% ROI)
Things started to get better with the match
Ramirez Hidalgo - Simon
Knowing from the week before that Simon was injured, I took very good odds on Ramirez Hidalgo, who had no problems at all to win this match. I am very glad about this trade, because it showed that all information you collect about the players can be useful.
Profit: 9,81€ (+46,6% ROI)
In the following match I started to use a new strategy. Something I mentioned during very many matches. Sometimes during the first games of the second set the market shows a very high overreaction and odds drop very low. This happens if the fav of the match won the first set very clear and is starting to take a lead in second set. But results like 6-0 6-0 or 6-1 6-1 are very seldom. So the odds usually take some upswings. If you are not greedy you can make very good profit from these swings, because a lay at 1.02 and back at 1.04 (or lay at 1.01 and back at 1.02) means 100% profit. I watched markets very long and often till I decided to try this strategy. Timing is everything for this trading and you need to watch the money queues on the higher odds carefully. Don't use this strategy if the market doesn't believe in the losing player anymore at all. For example if the odds drop to 1.02 and there are already waiting several thousand bugs to be matched on 1.03 and on 1.04 you shouldn't take this option.
Bolelli - Davydenko
Bets for the match:
Lay Davydenko 1615,55€ @ 1.01
Back Davydenko 1615,00€ @ 1.02
Lay Davydenko 15,14€ @ 1.03
Profit: 15,69€ (+97,15% ROI)
Time between bets matched: 25 seconds
I also applied this strategy on the following matches:
O. Rochus - Nalbandian
Profit: 14,32€ (+95,47% ROI)
Ferrer - Tipsarevic
Profit: 17,70€ (+88,5% ROI)
Robredo - Nalbandian
Loss: 20,00€ (-100% ROI)
The last one was a really stupid trade. I was greedy and the market didn't show signs to swing up again. But this strategy still is in big profit.
If you want to know how to win a set with just 2 return points till the score is 6-6, ask Janko Tipsarevic. Never saw something like this before.
Tipsarevic - Lapentti
Loss: 10,00€ (-50% ROI)
From now on, no more losses.
Some trades just watching inplay market and trading regarding to the stats:
Youzhny - Andreev
Profit: 1,20€ (+8,96% ROI)
Ferrero - Nieminen
Profit: 0,50€ (+5% ROI)
Andreev - Almagro
I watched this match in the betfair live stream. Really very good performance and great rallies of both players. Andreev needed 9 match points to finally claim this victory for him. all 9 match points where during one game. Almagro also had three times the advantage, so this last game of the match took 30 points!
Profit: 4,06€ (+40,6% ROI)
We all know that the nickname of "The King" went over to Rafael Nadal during the clay season and he showed in his two matches that he deserves it. Really impressive and genius play of Rafa.
So let us just talk about... the best tennis player of all times.
Going with Federer all the way:
Federer - Ramirez Hidalgo
Federer won the first set, lost the second set and was down 5-1 in the third set. Ramirez Hidalgo didn't have any matchpoint. Do I need to say more?
Profit: 5,50€ (+27,5% ROI)
Federer - Monfils
Market gave a 1.2 prematch on Fedex, which I took with great pleasure. Added some more at odds of 1.44 (highest odd on Federer during the match: 1.52).
Profit: 5,10€ (+25,5% ROI)
One another rule for tennis trading:
Don't bet against Roger Federer!
So far this tournament showed a profit of 28,00€. Till the last trade it was 48,00€, but this stupid loss with laying Nalbandian although the market didn't show signs for swinging up. But still feeling very comfortable. Will add this to general strategies for my trading, which are: During first stages: normal inplay trading, regarding the stats, history and other information about players - lay low, back little higher - and in later stages the hedging strategies on selected ATP matches and all WTA matches.
So far the news from my trading on Monte Carlo Masters Series.
Tschüss bis dann,
Muxor
As I told before, no inplay trading for me in higher stages, so I tried to hedge 20% ROI in several matches.
The hedging strategy worked fine in the following matches:
Benesova - Pin
Ferrer - Verdasco
Szavay - Cornet
Dementieva - Schnyder
Benesova - Ani
Ferrer - Robredo
Serra - Davydenko
Cornet - S. Williams
Zvonareva - Dementieva
Zakopalova - Kirilenko (both hedgebets where matched prematch)
In all these matches I layed the fav prematch and left a back order to get 20% ROI each way.
In two matches I didn't want to lay the fav prematch and did the hedge after the first games. It also worked fine, but would also have worked in both cases with premtach lays.
S. Williams - Sharapova
Korolev - Haase
I also skipped several matches. Following the markets inplay showed: all premtach hedges in these matches would have cought. I skipped too many matches in quarter finals. Don't remember all of them, but here are some examples:
Jankovic - Zvonareva
Gremelmayer - Federer
Zakopalova - Knapp
Ani - Savchuk
But I also found a killer of the hedging strategy. This killer in the last two days was Nicolas Almagro. In two matches of him the prematch hedge didn't work for me and both matches resulted in a loss without taking a stop loss. Almagro was clear odds fav in the matches:
Korolev - Almagro
Monaco - Almagro
In both cases not many steps of odds where necessary for the hedge to catch, but in both cases it wasn't reached. But also in both cases the odds dropped some tics when the match went inplay without anything had happened. If I took these lower odds to lay in both cases the hedge would have cought in the first game of the match.
But how was the hedging strategy killed in these matches? Well, in both cases Almagro managed to completely dominate his opponent. In all 4 sets he was leading with break ahead from the first game of the set. So no chance for higher odds, as the odds movement knew only one direction: downwards. Such matches are working completely against this strategy, but it happens.
The result of these two hedging days where 14 placed hedges with 12 wins and 2 losses. Hopefully these two losses don't repeat itself too often, as the percentage of hedge catches should be a little bit higher.
But nonetheless the days resulted in profit: 2 times loss of 100% makes it 200% loss and 12 times 20% profit makes 240% profit, so an overall profit of 40% for these two days.
These two days showed that (starting from quarter final) this hedging strategy would have worked in all WTA matches in two tournaments, but ATP showed two losses as here one break can be very important and the odds don't come up again.
Will consider three finals (Estoril WTA and ATP, Charleston WTA) for hedging. Need to think if I will try it again with Almagro in the final in Valencia. Next week the next masters series event in Monaco will take place, so none of the players will risk an injury at such small tournaments, so I don't think we will see the whole potential tomorrow in all matches.
G'Day,
Muxor
Didn't have much time to write about the matches I traded yesterday
Here are first the profits of yesterday:
Monaco - Eschauer 6-7, 6-4, 6-4 Profit: 10,00€ (+60,6% ROI)
Starace - Mofils 7-5, 6-1 Profit: 8,76€ (+43,8% ROI)
Serra - Machado 7-5, 6-1 Profit: 8,12€ (+27% ROI)
Zakopalova - Dentoni 6-4, 6-1 Profit: 5,35€ (+26,75% ROI)
Azarenka - Sun 7-6, 6-0 Profit: 6,40€ (+61,33% ROI)
Perebiynis - Schruff 6-4, 6-3 Profit: 10,60€ (+53% ROI)
Using the Hedging Strategy:
Jankovic - Stevenson 7-5, 6-0 Profit: 6,33€ (31,65% ROI)
So these selections where quite good in my opinion, as all won in two straight sets, except for Monaco, but here I mainly entered in the match after he lost the first set.
But then there where also some stupid losses which made my confidence on the day turn around. As I didn't follow my own rules.
Talking to Loocie that entering a match in the third set is gambling in the morning, as you have no chances to get out of your trades if the match developes in the wrong direction, some hours later my brain switched off and I made the following loss:
Radwanska - Gallovits 6-7, 6-2, 7-5 Loss: 10,00€ (-100% ROI)
One another loss of the day was to lay Schnyder after winning the first set in tiebreak. Didn't expect her to win second set 6-0, so no chance to trade out.
Schnyder - Govortsova 7-6 6-0 Loss: 10,00€ (-100% ROI)
A small loss I considered in the match of Gilles Simon. He was injured and retired, mentioned it in time and was able to close the risk.
Cipolla - Simon 6-2, 5-3 ret. Loss: 1,20€ (-3,2% ROI)
And the first trade of the day was one of the worst trades I made during the last time. Because everything in the match developed in the wrong direction and instead of cutting my losses I even put more money and started the day with a big loss. I was worrying about that the whole day. Need to stop both, putting more money if the match develops in the wrong direction and to worry about such things a whole day.
Benesova - Pennetta 6-2, 6-2 Loss: 37€ (-246% ROI)
I count this match in stats as a 246% loss, because I was so focused on number one seed Pennetta and expected her to win that I forgot about all rules. But nonetheless: Flavia Pennetta: YOU ARE A MUPPET!
So I managed to end in a small loss, although having 7 correct selections. Need to improve my loss cutting for future trades. I think the knowledge of tennis Loocie and me developed during the last month gives us very good opportunities to trade tennis matched profitable. I only need to work on psychological things. Not being greedy and to accept and cut losses.
So here are some helpful rules for inplay tennis trading:
Don't gamble in third/fifth set!
If a match develops in the wrong direction, don't put more money on your selection, cut your losses if necessary. If the match turns around you will take profit from your first bet, so if you put more money you can only lose more and we don't play this game to lose!
All the best,
Muxor
Hello,
today I want to go into detail on tennis hedging strategy.
1. What is the tennis hedging strategy?
This strategy tries to make a profit on tennis matches inplay. You lay a player at certain odds and back him at higher odds to hedge the profit on each player.
You might say "That's nothing new for me!" and you are right. Inplay trading means lay low, back high. The question is how to identify matches or situations inplay where you have a high probability of odds movement in our favour.
I try to find matches where I lay the favourite pre match and back him inplay at higher odds.
2. What is the goal if this strategy?
Very simple: Making profit! You have to define how much profit you would like to achieve with this strategy. I try to make 20% ROI on every match with this strategy, that means I need a strike rate of 80% to break even and I need more to make profit.
3. How to select matches for this strategy?
You should not select every match. Generally matches in early stages should be avoided, because favourites smash their opponents very often.
In women's tennis matches you have a strike rate around 83% when having an aim of 20% ROI on every match if you select every scheduled match.
In men's tennis matches you have a strike rate around 75% when having an aim of 20% ROI on every match if you select every scheduled match.
4. How to improve this strategy?
I would suggest to apply a stop loss. Will give you an example:
max liability: 100€ -> target profit: 20€
favourite's odds pre match: 1,4
required backer's stake: 250€
pre match stats:
favourite -100€
underdog +250€
I need to back the favourite 230€@1,52 to gain around 20% ROI.
What if the favourite smashes the underdog?
I would use a stop loss at 1,05:
Back favourite 333,33€1,05, so inplay stats:
favourite -83,33€
underdog -83,33€
We "only" lose 83,33% of our liability. Let us combine the stop loss with the strike rate in women's and men's tennis matches:
women's matches:
100 matches with stop loss:
-we win on 83 matches around 20€ => +1660€
-we lose on 17 matches around 83,33€ => -1411€
total profit with stop loss: +249€
100 matches without stop loss:
-we win on 83 matches around 20€ => +1660€
-we lose on 17 matches 100 => -1700€
total loss without stop loss: -40€
men's matches:
100 matches with stop loss:
-we win on 75 matches around 20€ => +1500€
-we lose on 25 matches around 83,33€ => -2083,25€
total loss with stop loss: -583,25€
100 matches without stop loss:
-we win on 75 matches around 20€ => +1500€
-we lose on 25 matches 100 => -2500€
total loss without stop loss: -1000€
Using this strategy without any selection criteria we make a small win on women's matches:
total ROI: staked: 10000€ returned 10249€ -> ROI: 2,49%
In men's tennis matches we produce a big loss.
First conclusion: Use a pre defined stop loss!
Without knowledge of players it is not possible to make a decent profit with this strategy. So I think we need to identify matches where the odds are low but where the underdog does not lose 6-1, 6-1 or anything else.
There are many web sites where we can find free statistics and historical results of every player. Take advantage of this.
I think it is possible to achieve a strike rate above 90% when being very selective with the matches we apply this strategy on. Imagine a strike rate of 90% of all matches, women's and men's matches:
max liability: 100€ -> target on every match: 20€
90 wins -> +1800€
10 losses (apply stop loss) -> -833,30€
total profit in 100 matches: 966,70€
total ROI: staked: 10000€ returned 10966,70€ -> ROI: +9,67%
This strategy is not a quick rich scheme, but if you select your matches carefully it is possible to make steady profits.
5. Conclusion:
In less than 15 minutes it is possible to identify matches to trade on with this strategy so it might be a good hourly rate.
It would be great to get some feedback and thoughts from you about this strategy via comments or email.
All the best, Loocie
Long time no post from me. Was a little bit busy and had not much time for trading.
And all trading I did was not very pleasant.
During the final stages of the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami I had only loss trades, going with Nadal in the final and with Federer against Roddick. So I made a decision, only to do my normal trading in early stages of tournaments and in quarter finals or later will also try the hedging strategy, Loocie is investigating.
This strategy seems to be profitable, as in this tournament it would have been a high strike rate.
We will see if I can get discipline in my trades and not to lose all profit from early stages during final stages. I am quite confident to do so.
Wlibamkanni,
Muxor
Hi,
today I traded the women's final of the 2008 Sony Ericsson Open in Miami:
S. Williams v Jankovic
I tried the Tennis hedging strategy from Alistair, the blogger of Bet Your Life.
I layed Williams pre match 40€@1,53. When Williams was serving in third game I got a lay bet of 25,40€@2,4 matched and was green each way.
When using the Tennis hedging strategy you have to pick you matches to trade on carefully. If you pick every match on the schedule you might loose. I will investigate this method and write down my thoughts about this strategy in later blog entries.
Wish you all the best, Loocie
I am also very surprised about the loss of Ana Ivanovic. Davenport retired her last match against Jankovic and Ivanovic had a really good run.
Yesterday we had some big upsets:
This table shows yesterday's matches. Favorites are underlined. We see the odds of the favorite pre match. If you only layed them with 100€ you could have made a decent profit of 179,00€.
There was no favorite winning his match in straight sets, so from trading view, it was possible to trade the matches without loosing money in any match.
I will follow matches with pre match favorite's odds arround 1,25-1,4 and will discuss my thoughts in later posts.
Today i will have a look at these matches:
Favorites in bold letters.
I stopped my pre match selections to rethink about my way to select matches and possible winners. Maybe come back later.
All the best,
Loocie
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