Review of Monte Carlo

Still have to update some results from last weeks tournament in Monte Carlo.

I used 20% hedging strategy on the following matches.

Andreev - Davydenko Profit: 4,00€ (20% ROI)

Nadal - Davydenko Loss: 20,00€ (-100% ROI)

What a stupid decision to try to hedge Rafael Nadal... will never do so again.

But I was able to get some money back I lost on the hedge with some trades on the final

Rafael  Nadal - Roger Federer

Before I said that one rule is: "Never bet against Roger Federer". OK, there is one rule above! "

"Never bet against Rafael Nadal on clay!".

So here are the bets for the match:

Back Nadal 20€ @ 1.48

Back Nadal 10€ @ 1.95

Lay Nadal 20€ @ 1.14

Lay Nadal 10€ @ 1.3

Lay Nadal 10€ @ 1.05

Profit: 12,80€ (+42,67% ROI)

 

So the overall p/l for this tournament was 24,80€. Including two really big mistakes that caused a loss of 40€. So I am quite confident to level up this performance on future tournaments.

 

Stay lucky,

Muxor

Trading Spain GP

Hello,

today I traded Formula 1 Spain GP.

First Lap Leader

Alonso was 2nd place and had less fuel than Raikkonen. I layed Raikkonen 20€@1,28 in the hope for Alonso to take the lead. Raikkonen was not under pressure the hold lead in 1st lap because he could be sure to over take Alonso in pit lane. Sadly Alonso could not take the lead and I lost my stake.

total loss this market: -5,60€

Podium Finish

During 2nd safety car period Hamilton was available to finish on podium at 1,59. I backed him 10€@1,59 knowing he should had more fuel than Kubica. Later I traded out to avoid a loss.

total profit this market: +3,36€

Fastest Lap

After a good start Raikkonen was pushing one fastest lap after another. I backed him 9€@2 after I saw him pushing. Layed off later to avoid a loss.

total profit this market: +5,70€

I like trading fastest lap, because you can follow this market very closely by using live timing from http://www.formula1.com.

Summary:

total profit today: +3,46€

All the best, Loocie

Trading 2008 Monte Carlo Masters final

Hi,

today I traded the final of 2008 Monte Carlo Masters:

Federer v Nadal

Nadal was leading 6-5 in 1st set and Federer was serving. I backed Nadal 10€@1,47 as a good free bet. Federer lost his service game and so the first set 5-7 and odds on Nadal shortened to 1,2. I layed Nadal 20€@1,2 because I thought Federer could give him another good fight in 2nd set. Federer did and was leading 4-0 in 2nd set. Odds on Nadal lengthened to 1,7. This was the exit point to make profit each way, because odds would not move significantly if Federer wins 2nd set. But I did not made profit each why. Was a great mistake!

Nadal fought back and Federer stopped playing tennis. Later I made profit each way, because I recognized that I have missed the correct point to exit.

This is a general issue I have to learn.

total profit this match: +1,46€ (14,6%ROI)

All the best, Loocie

Trading Qualifying Spain GP

Hello,

this afternoon I traded qualifying of Formula 1 Spain GP. I backed Lewis Hamilton pre qualifying 4€@11. He was close to Ferrari and I was confident he had a chance to get pole. The odds of 11 were too high.

In Q3 he had the chance to take the lead, but he did not.

In Q2 Massa was waiting until the end to perform this period but was available at 4, so I backed him 4€@4 and after he finished Q2 in 1st position I could lay off @2,86. Was a good trade.

In the last moments of Q3 were about 4 cars on track and fighting for pole position. I think with some knowledge of odds movement, live pictures and commentary it is very often possible to get really good odds inplay, especially in hectic situations. But today it was not possible. The suspend button boy of Betfair was to nervous and suspended the market during the final moments of Q3.

May bets so far:

Back Hamilton 4€@11
Back Massa 4€@4
Lay Massa 5,96€@2,86

total loss this session: -2,04€

All the best, Loocie

Monaco quarter finals

Hello,

today I traded the following matches:

Andreev v Davydenko

Davydenko won first set 6-3 but stats showed a very tight match. See picture below:

I layed Davydenko 30€@1,17. During second set I thought I watched WTA tennis match with 7 breaks. Match developed as predicted and I could green up. My bets so far:

Lay Davydenko 30€@1,17

Back Davydenko 10€@1,51

Back Davydenko 12,74€@1,57

total profit this match: +6,90€

Federer v Nalbandian

Backed Federer 10€@1,91 when score was 4-4. Nalbandian had only around 16% return points won so far. In the 11th game Federer lost his service game and Nalbandian won 1st set 7-5. Federer fought back and won second set 6-2. I traded out to avoid a loss.

total profit this match: +0,68€

Ferrer v Nadal

Layed Nadal pre match 25€@1,18 and took a stop loss @1,05. Well, Nadal is great on clay, but I was convinced Ferrer had a chance to win one set. Ferrer was leading 3-0 in second set with a double break but could not hold this and lost the match 1-6, 5-7.

total loss this match: -3,50€

It is good to see stop loss is working, but I think I you should not oppose Nadal on clay.

Tomorrow we will have Fed Cup semi finals and also semi finals in Monaco. I also hope I can enter trading formula 1.

All the best, Loocie

Clayseason

So now I finally found time to write down my trades on the masters series event in Monte Carlo.

Started in the tournament with a loss trade, simillar to Loocies trade on the match, but was glad that finally I managed to cut losses and not losing always 100% of my stake.

Lopez - Murray

Loss: 10,88€ (-55% ROI)

Andreev - Tursunov

Layed Andreev at 1.25, because I expected him to choke. He didn't and his whole performance at this tournament is really very good and impressive.

Loss: 5,00€ (-100% ROI)

Things started to get better with the match

Ramirez Hidalgo - Simon

Knowing from the week before that Simon was injured, I took very good odds on Ramirez Hidalgo, who had no problems at all to win this match. I am very glad about this trade, because it showed that all information you collect about the players can be useful.

Profit: 9,81€ (+46,6% ROI)

 

In the following match I started to use a new strategy. Something I mentioned during very many matches. Sometimes during the first games of the second set the market shows a very high overreaction and odds drop very low. This happens if the fav of the match won the first set very clear and is starting to take a lead in second set. But results like 6-0 6-0 or 6-1 6-1 are very seldom. So the odds usually take some upswings. If you are not greedy you can make very good profit from these swings, because a lay at 1.02 and back at 1.04 (or lay at 1.01 and back at 1.02) means 100% profit. I watched markets very long and often till I decided to try this strategy. Timing is everything for this trading and you need to watch the money queues on the higher odds carefully. Don't use this strategy if the market doesn't believe in the losing player anymore at all. For example if the odds drop to 1.02 and there are already waiting several thousand bugs to be matched on 1.03 and on 1.04 you shouldn't take this option.

 

Bolelli - Davydenko

Bets for the match:

Lay Davydenko 1615,55€ @ 1.01

Back Davydenko 1615,00€ @ 1.02

Lay Davydenko 15,14€ @ 1.03

Profit: 15,69€ (+97,15% ROI)

Time between bets matched: 25 seconds

 

I also applied this strategy on the following matches:

O. Rochus - Nalbandian

Profit: 14,32€ (+95,47% ROI)

Ferrer - Tipsarevic

Profit: 17,70€ (+88,5% ROI)

Robredo - Nalbandian

Loss: 20,00€ (-100% ROI)

The last one was a really stupid trade. I was greedy and the market didn't show signs to swing up again. But this strategy still is in big profit.

 

If you want to know how to win a set with just 2 return points till the score is 6-6, ask Janko Tipsarevic. Never saw something like this before.

Tipsarevic - Lapentti

Loss: 10,00€ (-50% ROI)

 

From now on, no more losses.

Some trades just watching inplay market and trading regarding to the stats:

Youzhny - Andreev

Profit: 1,20€ (+8,96% ROI)

Ferrero - Nieminen

Profit: 0,50€ (+5% ROI)

Andreev - Almagro

I watched this match in the betfair live stream. Really very good performance and great rallies of both players. Andreev needed 9 match points to finally claim this victory for him. all 9 match points where during one game. Almagro also had three times the advantage, so this last game of the match took 30 points!

Profit: 4,06€ (+40,6% ROI)

 

We all know that the nickname of "The King" went over to Rafael Nadal during the clay season and he showed in his two matches that he deserves it. Really impressive and genius play of Rafa.

 

So let us just talk about... the best tennis player of all times.

Going with Federer all the way:

Federer - Ramirez Hidalgo

Federer won the first set, lost the second set and was down 5-1 in the third set. Ramirez Hidalgo didn't have any matchpoint. Do I need to say more?

Profit: 5,50€ (+27,5% ROI)

Federer - Monfils

Market gave a 1.2 prematch on Fedex, which I took with great pleasure. Added some more at odds of 1.44 (highest odd on Federer during the match: 1.52).

Profit: 5,10€ (+25,5% ROI)

 

One another rule for tennis trading:

Don't bet against Roger Federer!

 

So far this tournament showed a profit of 28,00€. Till the last trade it was 48,00€, but this stupid loss with laying Nalbandian although the market didn't show signs for swinging up. But still feeling very comfortable. Will add this to general strategies for my trading, which are: During first stages: normal inplay trading, regarding the stats, history and other information about players - lay low, back little higher - and in later stages the hedging strategies on selected ATP matches and all WTA matches.

So far the news from my trading on Monte Carlo Masters Series.

 

Tschüss bis dann,

Muxor

Stupid is as stupid does

Hello,

I had busy days at work so I could not trade very much. Not having much time for trading could be a reason for doing stupid things.

2008-04-22

Safin v Malisse

Layed Safin 100€@1,01 with the aim to back 50€@1,02 in the hope match could turn. Completely stupid! It is only small money, but it is wasted. There was no reason for doing this.

total loss this match: -1,00€

Andreev v Tursunov

Layed Andreev 20€@1,24 after winning 1st set 7-5. Andreev is not very stable during a match, so I think it was a good Lay. Sadly Tursunov could not fight back and I lost my hole stake.

total loss this match: -4,80€

Ramirez Hidalgo v Simon

I can not remember completely when I entered the market. Simon was injured, but there were good odds available to back Ramirez Hidalgo.

I remember Muxor took odds around 1,6x to back Ramirez Hidalgo. I was chasing ticks stupidly: Back 1,69 was available and I can not explain why I tried to get 1,72 or 1,73 but I did not take 1,69. It is completely stupid to chase 2 or 3 ticks. 1,69 was very good. I took 1,33 so I wasted more than 30 ticks to get 2 or 3 ticks!

My bets:

Back Ramirez Hidalgo 10€@1,33

Lay Ramirez Hidalgo 10€@1,01

total profit this match: +3,04€

Bolelli v Davydenko

They played each other a few days ago and Bolelli could win 1st set against Davydenko.

My bets:

Lay Davydenko 50€@1,1 after winning 1st set 6-2

Back Davydenko 20€@1,05 to reduce eventually loss.

In 2nd set Davydenko was leading 4-1.

Back Davydenko 20€@1,2 after Bolelli fought back to 4-4, so I had a free bet with 10€ profit on Bolelli and 0€ on Davydenko, but Davy won 2nd set 7-6 and I could not make profit.

total profit this match: 0,00€

2008-04-23

Lapentti v Tipsarevic

How statistics can lie! Lapentti  won 1st set 7-5. Tipsarevic had only 34% 1st serve and won only 25% return points in 1st set.

I backed Lapentti 10€@1,49 when score was 4-4 in 2nd set. Until this time Tipsarevic only won two return points in second set. I was quit confident about Lapentti winning an eventually tie break or breaking Tipsarevic. Tippy could reach a tie break an won 2nd set 7-6. Odds moved against me, but I was able to reduce liability but I did not. That was a mistake. I lost my whole stake.

total loss this match: -10€

Vliegen v Gasquet

I got an info about an injury of Gasquet and decided to apply tennis hedging strategy. I know using this strategy in early stages in tournaments is very risky. I learned this again when Gasquet won this match 6-1, 6-2.

total loss this match: -20€

stats tennis hedging strategy: -3,67€

today 2008-04-24

Djokovic v A Murray

Again something stupid. Laying Djokovic 100€1,01 to lose 1€.

total loss this match: -1,00€

Querrey v Gasquet

I could return to my normal way of trading tennis matches without being stupid.

Gasquet won 1st set 6-2 and odds on him moved to 1,1. In the first game of the 2nd set I could see some strange swings on odds so I layed Gasquet 100€@1,05 when Querrey was serving at 1-1 (0-15). This was a very tight game, Gasquet had 7 break points but could not convert any of them. After winning this game I could green up with a back Gasquet 50€@1,1 but I did not get all money matched, only 70,49€ and so I cancelled rest of the money, but was green.

Querrey improved his serve and took a 5-4 lead with Gasquet serving. Odds on Gasquet were around 1,08. This was a great free lay. Gasquet could only reach a 5-5 and odds would return to 1,05 or 1,06, so only 2 or 3 ticks risk with the possibility to gain 20 or 30 ticks. But it is important to back back the player you layed, when he wins his service game.

Gasquet did not and I could green up at 1,3 (so 22 ticks won). I green up each way to make a profit of 15,86€ with only 5€ risk. More than 300% ROI!

total profit this match: +15,86€

By the way: Gasquet lost this match 6-2, 4-6, 3-6.

Here are some conclusions to improve my trading and avoid stupid "trades":

• Do not chase ticks!
  
• Do not enter markets without a plan!
  
• Take stop loss according to situation. Do not lose your whole stake!
  
• Apply tennis hedging strategy only in final stages (QF, SF, F) of tournaments!

I will keep this in mind and hope to continue good trading from previous weeks.

All the best, Loocie