Value Betting Tool

Hello folks,

long time since my last blog post. I am still doing fine on the horse racing betting front. I am not resting on my laurels so I am always looking for other betting systems, too.
I did a lot of research and I analyzed different tipster services to get an idea of their selection process.

For me, a value better, it was really surprising that a lot of them published their selections the evening before the day of racing.
At that time most of the bookmakers did not have offered prices on the races, except for the big meetings, so how could they determine
if a horse is a selection?

When I analyzed historical data I tried to create a rating for every horse in every race. This rating is converted into fair odds, so these fair odds represent the true chance of the horse winning the race.
If now a bookmaker offers higher odds than the fair odds the system calculated, the selection is marked as a bet.
So there are days with many selections and there are days without any selection.

From my observations of the horse racing markets I realised very soon that a lot of odds moving takes place in the space of time between 11:00 - 12:00 BST. So this is the time my new system is working in.

How does it works:
Every day in the space of time between 11:00 - 12:00 BST I log into my system and wait to get the bets highlighted. If the system
marks a horse as a bet I am placing the bet as suggested. If the bookmaker already lowered the price I skip that selection.
I am using stakes of EUR100.00 so this one hour is really busy for me, because I need to get matched at the suggested price.
Mostly I have to split my stake on various bookmakers.
When I am in UK I always place bets at the shops. Easy as that.

If you are interested just have a look at

http://www.valuebettingtool.com

Please sign up with bonus code "layyourself". Just add bonus code "layyourself" in sign up message and you will get a subscription discount of 10% every month.

Have a nice weekend!

Cheers, Loocie

It´s ALL about the odds, NOTHING else matters

Hi,

Today I found an interview from 2009 with a pro gambler. Check this out:

An Interview With Pro Gambler Russell Clarke

He won't tell you his betting secrets, so no need to be disappointed. Nobody ever will give his edge away for free or low cost, but if you want to have an interesting read about a pro's mindset, give it a go.

Cheers,

Loocie

Free Lay Opportunity

Hi,

trading on tennis can offer some great opportunities. Todays semi final of Australian Open between Feder and Nadal offered such a situation. When Feder was 3-0* up with a single break he traded at 1.28/1.29 which is quite the odds at the end of the set. When Federer won the 1st set 7-6 he traded at 1.31/1.32.



Even if you did not green up you still did not lose money.
Be prepared for those opportunities.

Cheers, Loocie

Rheinland-Pokal

Hello everybody,

yesterday Muxor and me visited German horse racing here in our home city Cologne. We are not experts when it comes to German horse racing, but the principle is the same: Back the winner! :-)

We had a few punts with small money and here you can see how we did:

  
(Click on image to enlarge)

Overall we had a funny afternoon.
In September there will be another meeting here in Cologne and I am pretty sure we will visit the meeting again.

Cheers,

Loocie

Offer

Hello folks,

This month is really a pleasure. So far June is the most profitable month ever. Currently I am looking at a total profit of 384.27 points this month and there are still a lot of days to raise the monthly pl to a new record!

I am making good profits with the system and I have already a few friends using the system, too.
There are still a few places left for other people using the system, so I am looking for people to use my system as well.

If you want to use the system you need to meet the following requirements:

• You have a professional attitude as this is one of the best betting systems but also one of the most time consuming
• You are able to place bets during working hours every day
• You can start with a reasonable bank (and money you can afford to lose – at least GBP 200)
• You are not addicted to gambling
• You have the mental strength to survive losing streaks
• You will have to pay a monthly fee depending on your winnings

UPDATE 1:

Sorry for any misunderstandings. From your replies I see I need to clarify some misunderstandings.

• You can not buy the system, you can only get access to the suggested bets of the system
• The system is no trading system on Betfair, it suggests bets at the bookmakers
• You have to make sure, that you can bet on UK bookmakers like Bet365, WillHill, etc from your country

UPDATE 2:

Thank you very much for this overwhelming numbers of responses. I am really sorry, but I could not add all the people who sent me an email, because I need to protect prices for the subscribers.

If there are again new places left I will contact you again, if you sent me an email already.

Cheers, Loocie

Happy Birthday

Hello everybody,

Exactly a year ago we started with our semi automated betting bot, so today it is its first anniversary.

What an exciting year it has been. The first three days produced a loss of -1.67pts, -4.25pts and -22.80pts. I was a little disappointed then, but I stuck to it and the next two days produced a profit of 2.25pts and 55.33pts.

There have been good days and also not that good days, but right now with all the experience I got during the year those bad periods does not affect my mood anymore.

Let’s have a look at the stats of the first year:

Total PL 2,230.94pts
Total days 297
Days in Profit 176
Days in Loss 121
Max daily Profit 73.58pts
Max daily Loss -43.50pts
Avg PL per Day 7.51pts

The most challenging part of the year was the bank building process. From 05/29/2010 to 08/02/2010 (60 days!) we only managed to make 7.74 pts. We checked again and again our software and luckily we could identify a bug and solve it.
This really helped, so August 2010 produced a total profit of 305.59pts.
I do not want to have another bank building process anymore. Building a decent betting bank requires a lot of discipline and patience. I think this is the most challenging part for every beginner of professional betting or trading when starting with a small bank. If you lose five quid you might think that is not that much, but percentage wise (if it is 1% of your betting bank) it can be costly. If you lose 5 quid of your bank of 500 quid's – no problem. If your bank is 5000 quid’s you will lose 50 quid’s which might be a problem. Therefore I am always thinking in points rather than in Euro.
Tracking your betting or trading results helps you to stay focused. I am lucky, because I do not have to track my results manually, it is done by the software automatically, but having a look at the graph of the betting bank on a daily basis helps a lot to stay focused.

So what to expect from the next year? I will be really pleased to produce the same profit again. No chase, no run for random numbers and goals, just making profit. It will be interesting to see how the performance will be from today until 08/02/2011, because the bug is eliminated and I am pretty sure the results for this period in 2011 will be much better than in 2010.

Another important thing I need to mention is ‘motivation’. I stay motivated by listening to certain music when the profit comes in. So when I had a really good day I always enjoy those two songs:

 

I start the day always with this one:

I think this technique comes from Neuro-linguistic programming and is called “Anchoring”. Give it a try.

That’s it for now.
I now I promised you a report about the trading seminar a few weeks ago in Manchester. You will get it, but not today ;-)

Cheers, Loocie

Update

Hello everybody,

I am still alive! A really long time since my last blog post. There are two reason for not posting that often in the moment: Firstly time is really limited. I am still working from 9 to 5 and doing the horses as well, so every free minute is appreciated.
The second one is that I do not have to say anything interesting. I am posting my profit/loss figure on a daily bases on the right side via twitter, just to keep you updated.
The horses are doing really well. March is already with 96.48 points in profit and with Cheltenham in front, I am really excited what March in total will bring.
On 2nd of April Muxor and me will attend a football trading seminar in Manchester. We will arrive on Friday and we will stay there until Sunday. It is the first time that we get in touch in real life with other traders and I am really excited about other people’s background, motivation and ideas about sports trading and betting. 
That’s it so far. I will keep you updated about the trading seminar and maybe other stuff, too ;-)

Cheers,

Loocie