Lay Yourself

Free Lay Opportunity

2012-01-26T10:50:00.005+01:00

Hi,

trading on tennis can offer some great opportunities. Todays semi final of Australian Open between Feder and Nadal offered such a situation. When Feder was 3-0* up with a single break he traded at 1.28/1.29 which is quite the odds at the end of the set. When Federer won the 1st set 7-6 he traded at 1.31/1.32.

Even if you did not green up you still did not lose money.
Be prepared for those opportunities.

Cheers, Loocie

Rheinland-Pokal

2011-08-15T11:05:00.000+02:00

Hello everybody,

yesterday Muxor and me visited German horse racing here in our home city Cologne. We are not experts when it comes to German horse racing, but the principle is the same: Back the winner! :-)

We had a few punts with small money and here you can see how we did:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Overall we had a funny afternoon.
In September there will be another meeting here in Cologne and I am pretty sure we will visit the meeting again.

Cheers,

Loocie

Offer

2011-06-19T15:22:00.001+02:00

Hello folks,

This month is really a pleasure. So far June is the most profitable month ever. Currently I am looking at a total profit of 384.27 points this month and there are still a lot of days to raise the monthly pl to a new record!

I am making good profits with the system and I have already a few friends using the system, too.
There are still a few places left for other people using the system, so I am looking for people to use my system as well.

If you want to use the system you need to meet the following requirements:

You have a professional attitude as this is one of the best betting systems but also one of the most time consuming
You are able to place bets during working hours every day
You can start with a reasonable bank (and money you can afford to lose – at least GBP 200)
You are not addicted to gambling
You have the mental strength to survive losing streaks
You will have to pay a monthly fee depending on your winnings

UPDATE 1:

Sorry for any misunderstandings. From your replies I see I need to clarify some misunderstandings.

You can not buy the system, you can only get access to the suggested bets of the system
The system is no trading system on Betfair, it suggests bets at the bookmakers
You have to make sure, that you can bet on UK bookmakers like Bet365, WillHill, etc from your country

UPDATE 2:

Thank you very much for this overwhelming numbers of responses. I am really sorry, but I could not add all the people who sent me an email, because I need to protect prices for the subscribers.

If there are again new places left I will contact you again, if you sent me an email already.

Cheers, Loocie

Happy Birthday

2011-04-20T12:37:00.001+02:00

Hello everybody,

Exactly a year ago we started with our semi automated betting bot, so today it is its first anniversary.

What an exciting year it has been. The first three days produced a loss of -1.67pts, -4.25pts and -22.80pts. I was a little disappointed then, but I stuck to it and the next two days produced a profit of 2.25pts and 55.33pts.

There have been good days and also not that good days, but right now with all the experience I got during the year those bad periods does not affect my mood anymore.

Let’s have a look at the stats of the first year:

Total PL 2,230.94pts
Total days 297
Days in Profit 176
Days in Loss 121
Max daily Profit 73.58pts
Max daily Loss -43.50pts
Avg PL per Day 7.51pts

The most challenging part of the year was the bank building process. From 05/29/2010 to 08/02/2010 (60 days!) we only managed to make 7.74 pts. We checked again and again our software and luckily we could identify a bug and solve it.
This really helped, so August 2010 produced a total profit of 305.59pts.
I do not want to have another bank building process anymore. Building a decent betting bank requires a lot of discipline and patience. I think this is the most challenging part for every beginner of professional betting or trading when starting with a small bank. If you lose five quid you might think that is not that much, but percentage wise (if it is 1% of your betting bank) it can be costly. If you lose 5 quid of your bank of 500 quid's – no problem. If your bank is 5000 quid’s you will lose 50 quid’s which might be a problem. Therefore I am always thinking in points rather than in Euro.
Tracking your betting or trading results helps you to stay focused. I am lucky, because I do not have to track my results manually, it is done by the software automatically, but having a look at the graph of the betting bank on a daily basis helps a lot to stay focused.

So what to expect from the next year? I will be really pleased to produce the same profit again. No chase, no run for random numbers and goals, just making profit. It will be interesting to see how the performance will be from today until 08/02/2011, because the bug is eliminated and I am pretty sure the results for this period in 2011 will be much better than in 2010.

Another important thing I need to mention is ‘motivation’. I stay motivated by listening to certain music when the profit comes in. So when I had a really good day I always enjoy those two songs:

I start the day always with this one:

I think this technique comes from Neuro-linguistic programming and is called “Anchoring”. Give it a try.

That’s it for now.
I now I promised you a report about the trading seminar a few weeks ago in Manchester. You will get it, but not today ;-)

Cheers, Loocie

Update

2011-03-10T12:14:00.001+01:00

Hello everybody,

I am still alive! A really long time since my last blog post. There are two reason for not posting that often in the moment: Firstly time is really limited. I am still working from 9 to 5 and doing the horses as well, so every free minute is appreciated.
The second one is that I do not have to say anything interesting. I am posting my profit/loss figure on a daily bases on the right side via twitter, just to keep you updated.
The horses are doing really well. March is already with 96.48 points in profit and with Cheltenham in front, I am really excited what March in total will bring.
On 2nd of April Muxor and me will attend a football trading seminar in Manchester. We will arrive on Friday and we will stay there until Sunday. It is the first time that we get in touch in real life with other traders and I am really excited about other people’s background, motivation and ideas about sports trading and betting.
That’s it so far. I will keep you updated about the trading seminar and maybe other stuff, too ;-)

Cheers,

Loocie

Betfair Bot: Basic Functionality

2010-12-11T18:36:00.001+01:00

Hi,

This is the 2nd post of the series “Creating A Betfair Bot With C#”.

In the first blog post of this series I mentioned all the tools and software I am using when working on betting bots based on .NET C#.

Before I will start I just want to mention that you are using the given information and software on your own risk. I am not responsible for any problems and issues.

Today we will step into development and I will write about the following functionalities every bot of mine has:

Logging
Local Database
Saving Settings in Registry
Bot Handling (Start/Stop)

You will also see the structure of the bot, but most of the classes are not yet finished, especially the ones which are related to the Betfair API.

It might be useful to download the Visual Studio 2005 project first and look at the source code and the descriptions in this series simultaneously.

DOWNLOAD-LINK Betfair Betting Bot Project

I will now go through a few classes and files first and give information about important things to consider:

Program.cs
This file contains the main entry of our application which means if you start the application the first call is the so called “main method”. Generally this main method calls the first windows form.
To make things easier I always add the following line as the first command in the main method:

AppDomain.CurrentDomain.UnhandledException +=
new UnhandledExceptionEventHandler(CurrentDomain_UnhandledException);

This means we are listening to the event “UnhandledException”. So if we forgot to insert some exception handling anywhere in our application we do not have search why our application throws exceptions and crashes. We will get a message box with some debugging information and we can locate the error much faster, especially in threading related source code. In addition we need to implement a method “CurrentDomain_UnhandledException” which will show the message box. This is already done.

GUI.frmMain.cs
This is our main windows form with all the controls we need to show market information or any information we want. To make it easier I only will place a few controls for debugging information.

GUI.frmLogin.cs
This windows form is the form we are using for login into Betfair. Currently there is no functionality implemented. I will update this form in the next article, which is related to Betfair API.

Data.Betfair.BetfairContainer.cs
This class will handle all the connectivity to Betfair API. Currently it is not yet implemented, but I added it already to give you an overview of the structure of the bot.
I also already added web references to Betfair API. We will need this in the next article.

(web references in project explorer)

I only added a reference to global service (for login functionality etc) and a reference to UK exchange (for getting prices, markets etc). If your bot should also work for AUS markets you need to add a reference to AUS exchange too.

1. Logging Functionality
When developing an application it is always useful to know what is going on in your application. Therefore I am always creating logging functionality in every application I am working on. The logging in this bot consists of two parts:
a) General logging into a console:
This is done via method “LogIntoConsole” in form frmMain.
Use the call

GUI.frmMain.LogIntoConsole(“Testmessage”);

to log something into console. This logging is working non-blocking, that means even if you log many large messages or variable contents the user interface is still responsive.

b) Logging into a log file:
This is done via LoggingTask. To perform a log into a log file use call

GUI.frmMain.LogIntoFile(“Testmessage”);

There will be created a log file in the path where the executable is. For each day you will get another file, so the file name contains a part of the date, something like “debug_11_30.log” for 30th November. This logging is done in a background thread, so again if you are logging huge data the application is still responsive an not blocking.

2. Local Database
Using local databases is really important, especially if you want to be able to load data into your bot from external data sources. For example you can create a bot which places bets on horse racing depending on various criteria from Adrian Massey’s Rating from http://www.adrianmassey.com/28/rating.php.
You can let your bot scrap the webpage or save it manually into MS Excel and save it as comma separated value file and then let the bot read the file and place the bets for you, if certain criteria fit your strategy. For saving data like this you can use a local database in your bot. Therefore I have created a SQL Manager which does all the work for you:
Database.SQLManager.cs:
For demonstration how to work with a database I added a SQL table called “Settings” for saving settings for the bot. So you can save settings like stake, max odds, min odds etc and every time you start the bot all the settings will be loaded from the database.
I only created a sample of this SQL Manager. To get your settings working you need to add some functionality. The same, if you want to save horse racing data. The steps to add something like this are:

1. Write a method for creating the SQL table like I did in method SQLManager.createSettingTable().
2. Call this method in SQLManager.Initialize(). So now your table will be created at start of application, if it is not yet present.
3. Write a method for saving objects into database like I did in method SQLManager.SaveSetting(string key, string value).
4. Write a method for getting objects from database like I did in method SQLManager.GetSetting(string key).

So now you can save settings for example like this anywhere in the bot with
SQLManager.SaveSetting(“stake”, “10.00”);
and get it back with
SQLManager.GetSetting(“stake”);

I am not using a database for saving settings, but just want to give an example. I am saving settings via Registry:

3. Saving Settings in Registry
This is done via class Data.CRegistry.cs. All settings will be saved in HKEY_CURRENT_USER\Software\MyBot.
I added a few methods in CRegistry for demonstration. So with this example you can save stake size, min odds and max odds. If you want to add further settings, just copy one of the methods and modify it accordingly. Saving stake sizes for example within registry call CRegistry.saveStakeSize(10.00); and get it from registry call double stakeSize = CRegistry.getStakeSize();.

(Example: Settings saved in registry)

It is up to you to decide whether you choose database or registry for saving settings.

4. Bot Handling
What do I mean with “bot handling”? When using an automated betting system it is always useful to start and stop the bot. Therefore I created an enumeration called BotStatusEnum, which indicates whether the bot is running or not.
Another important thing to consider is, that starting the application via clicking on the executable does not automatically mean, that the bot is running. To start the bot itself you need to click on start button in the top left menu. If the bot then is running you can stop it by clicking on stop button. I also added a closing form handler which means if the bot is running and you click on the X on top right unintentionally, you will always get a message that the bot is still running an can not be closed. The is really important if your bot trades automatically on Betfair. So you can implement rules for automatically closing trades on application exit to keep your liability as small as possible.

Wow, what a huge blog post. Hopefully I did not miss any information. If so, feel free to drop an email or leave a comment. In the next two blog posts of this series we will step into Betfair API handling. This will be really interesting, especially login/logout, market handling (add and remove markets), getting prices and placing bets.

Cheers, Loocie

Betting in the Zone

2010-11-28T13:07:00.001+01:00

Hi folks,

Long time since the last blog post. I am still there and working on the betting front.
Generally, when betting related bloggers publish blog posts less frequently than earlier there are two common reasons: Their betting/trading is not successful as expected or everything is fine. Luckily I am one of the latter one.
To give you an idea about the results of the last months here is an overview:

Sept: +225.29 pts
Oct: +370.52 pts
Nov so far: +73.92 pts

All the profit comes from betting on horse races with the semi automated version of HorstBecker.
The change of the weather conditions and the change into the jump season had an effect of our results for November. During the first week we were 50 pts down but our confidence is still big enough to handle those down swings and currently we are looking at a solid profit of 73.92 points.
I mentioned in the last blog post, that Muxor and me enjoyed a part of our profit with a short vacation in Malta at the end of October. Here are some pictures (Click on images to enlarge):

Our Private Extra-Large Terrace

Looking for a speed boat to hire

The Westin Dragonara Resort Malta – Our Hotel

Blue Lagoon – View from the speed boat

We really enjoyed the trip to Malta. This was our first big reward we had from our betting and I am hoping for more of that.

The move into my new flat is already done, but there are still things to work on.

Today only a meeting in Kempton takes place, so I will have some time to work on the next article of the series “Creating A Betfair Bot With C#”.

That’s it so far. Have a nice Sunday!

Cheers, Loocie

Preparing for Malta

Hello,

I get many emails from readers about my betting bots. I think it is clear that I can not give too many details away how the bots are working. If I would do that I will lose the small edge I might have, but I know there are people out there having a strategy in mind, but they have troubles to get them working, because they can not sit down in front of a computer day in day out.

I want to publish a series of blog posts about how to get the Betfair API stuff working. The aim is to create a basic framework of a betting bot, which means a betting bot with the following features:

Login/Logout
User Interface with market details
Debug logging
Database connection
Betfair API functions (get prices, etc)

The series will contain the following sections:

1. Environment and Setup

2. Basic Functionality

3. Betfair API I

4. Betfair API II

5. Final Thoughts

I will update the link to each section, if it is published. At the end of every section I will provide the current progress of the bot as a download of a Visual Studio 2005 project, so you can play around.

I will not go too much into technical detail, so it might be helpful to have some experience with software development. You should know the common program flow controls like “the for loop” etc. If you are not familiar with it, try this tutorial

C# Tutorial

I will more concentrate on the “higher technical aspects” like multi threading or event handling, because I get many emails from people struggling with it and having a bot with freezes from time to time.

This series will be far away from being professional. I taught myself how to work with C# and Visual Studio, so feel free to give helpful comments for me and all the other readers, if there is something not that correct or if you have an idea how to do some things easier or faster.

This series will not create a bot you can use and make a lot of money just by running it. For demonstration I think we will implement a simple strategy, but right now I have not a certain strategy in mind.

That’s it so far. Currently I have not yet a time schedule when to publish the blog posts. I hope I can finish one post per week.

Cheers, Loocie

Still Here

2010-08-12T18:47:00.001+02:00

Hello,

a long time since the last blog entry. I am sorry, but at the moment I do not have much time to write about my betting stuff.

As mentioned so often, I do not want to bore you every day with figures how much I lost or won.

I totally stopped manual trading on Betfair. No tennis, no football, no Formula 1.
I concentrated on working on the betting bots and it seems there is an edge for me. The semi automated version of HorstBecker is running really well at the moment. I had a really long run of up and downs before I identified a bug in the source code. I am really glad I found it, because results changed a lot in my favour with the new version of the software. Currently I am up for this month 152 points!

That’s it so far. Will keep you updated!

Cheers, Loocie

Bug

2010-07-27T09:46:00.001+02:00

Hello,

not many updates this month so far. Summer has arrived and I try to avoid spending time in front of the computer.

However, I am still doing the selections and this month has been a bad one so far.

Currently we are facing a loss of 7 points, but as you can see there has been a big down swing.

We investigated the selection process again and we identified a bug in the software. Resolved the problem.

Still a few days to get back into profit zone. Will update again at the end of the month.

Cheers, Loocie

Germany – Spain 0:1

2010-07-08T22:29:00.001+02:00

Hello,

I am not in the happiest mood, because yesterday we lost the semi final of the World Cup 2010 against Spain.

I am not disappointed, I am sad that our team could not perform their best. Spain won the match well deserved and I hope they can win the Cup on Sunday.

I also want to mention that I am proud of our team: They gave us so many great moments and if we lose against a better team we need to accept that.

Cheers, Loocie

Argentina – Germany 0:4

2010-07-04T11:10:00.001+02:00

Hi,

what an incredible match it was versus Argentina! It is hard to describe what I am feeling right now. It feels a little unreal, but it is cool :)

I watched the match in the same location I watched the match versus England and again it was amazing! What a really stunning performance from Germany and I am so happy we made the semi final again.

It is great to see, that it does not matter if you have a few super stars in your team like Messi, Ronaldo, etc. Football is still a team sport and if you play as a team you can beat every other team which only relies on the performance of their super stars.

Cheers, Loocie

June Roundup

2010-07-01T10:04:00.001+02:00

Hello,

June is over and I will take the time to give an update how I did.

The semi manual HorstBecker produced a total profit of 64.74 points, which is ok.

After last months performance I expected to get more out of it, but I can not complain.

I am progressing on the football value system. The database model is already created and I will start coding the other components and the user interface. I am not yet sure if I will create an AJAX based application or a common web site, because the aim is to make the web based system available for mobile devices, too. So it can be used without having a laptop or pc available. This month I bought a HTC HD2 mobile device which is a great device. I like the idea to get a notification via email or SMS from the system when new selections are available and place the bets via mobile device.

I will keep you updated.

Cheers, Loocie

Germany – England 4:1

2010-06-28T11:35:00.001+02:00

Hello,

what a great match it was…for Germany!

I know we have some blog readers from the United Kingdom and I know it is brutal to see the own team losing…but I think it is worth to mention the incredible win against the Three Lions.

To be honest, yes, the shot from Lampard was a goal and the score had to be 2-2. Is this poetic justice, is this the reverse Wembley goal? The question is simple: It does not matter! The far better team won the match well-deserved.

I watched the match in a beach area and the atmosphere was amazing:

Cheers, Loocie

Shaky Month

2010-06-20T11:38:00.001+02:00

Hello,

Sunday morning, a good time to do a proper blog post. The FIFA World Cup 2010 is underway and I watched many boring low scoring games. Is the vuvuzela sound the reason for having such boring uneventful matches? Hopefully the final group stage matches will bring some more excitements.

What’s up on the horse betting bot front? June has been a shaky month so far.

Currently the semi automated HorstBecker is 34 points in profit. I expected Royal Ascot to give the month a boost, but it did not. At the moment not a huge profit compared to last months stunning performance, but still a profit. There are many “services” out there which would be happy to claim a monthly profit of 34 points or more, so I can not complain.

At the moment I am working on a football value betting system. I have the whole system including the technical aspects detailed in my mind and today I started creating the database model. I am sure this system can be used by many people, because there is so much liquidity available, so I will create a web based system for that. I am not sure if it will be available for everybody or just for a closed group, not yet decided. The first step is to get it running until the new football season starts. This means a lot of work, but I will keep you updated how I am progressing.

That’s it for now. Have a nice Sunday!

Cheers, Loocie

Update

2010-06-06T12:27:00.001+02:00

Hello,

now I have the time to do a proper blog post about what I have done in the world of betting during the last few weeks.

I stopped concentrating on trading live sports event. I am not progressing as expected, so I decided to spend my time on working on the betting bots.

HorstBecker and LaylaCheval are currently running in simulation mode. The results have not been that consistent as expected.

I created a semi automated version of HorstBecker and the results are stunning so far. It made 334.29 points profit in May.

I also created a bot which trades inplay horse races. Currently it is running in simulation mode and collecting data, but looks also very promising.

At the moment I am working on my central tracking platform to create automated reports about the results and stats of the betting bots work, so I hope soon I can publish some more detailed information how the bots perform.

That’s it so far. Later Soderling will play Nadal in the final of French Open 2010. Hopefully it will be an exciting match.

All the best,

Loocie

Stopped Trading

2010-05-29T08:00:00.001+02:00

Hello,

a long time since my last proper blog post. Much happened this month, so I think it is time to give an update.

I have decided to stop my personal trading on sport events. Currently I am not able to make a decent return on the time I am spending trading tennis or something else. Most of the action takes place during the day when I am at work and there is too much distraction, so often I am not concentrated at all. I also did not develop the confidence I think I need to have. So currently I have to admit, that manual trading does not work for me.

But this is not the end of the blog. I still have another iron in the fire: The bots.

I will write something about the bots in the next blog post, but will give you a promising insight with this screenshot:

It shows the pl figure in points of one of the bots for May.

Cheers, Loocie

Still Here

2010-05-27T13:21:00.001+02:00

Hi,

just want to let you know I am still here. Will give an update in a few days.

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis of April 2010

2010-05-01T10:55:00.001+02:00

Hello,

it has been quiet during the last few weeks. I did not write anything about my trading, because at the moment I do not have any interesting stuff to say and I do not want to repeat the same again and again.

However, I traded some sports events, so let’s have a look how I did:

Horse Racing: -€84.54
Worst month for the lay selections so far. I decided to stop it for a while. I will restart the selections again, but have not yet decided when to do that.

Motor Sport: -€11.00
Just a small bet on the winner market of the China Grand Prix, which did not work out. I am really sad about the new rules of the season, because now there is not much activity in the fastest lap market like last season. Maybe I have to skip this sport.

Soccer: –€21.93
Currently I am testing a few ideas with small stakes, so nothing to worry about.

Tennis: €67.97
I love trading tennis and I hate trading tennis. Will it every work for me?
I don’t know how much I wrote about trading this sport, but maybe it was way too much.
After the first down swing of the tennis trading in April I took a break and tried to erase all of my “knowledge” and of course all of my prejudices about the sport and about the odds movement. Then I tried to trade the matches with intuition. That means I used various stake sizes, depending on how confident I was about the trade. I also placed some bets based on value. The value investing concept is simple: Just place a bet or start a trade if the odds are wrong. Therefore you have to deal with losing runs, but that is just a matter of money management. The problem with the concept of value investing is how to estimate the true value of a bet. On long term your results will tell you, if your selections offered value or not.

Total P&L: -€49.50

Another month of learning the hard way. The funny thing is I already wrote about those issues before, but it is quiet different to know the facts and to be aware of them.
I know the facts, now I need to be aware of them.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

2010-04-14T11:50:00.001+02:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

2010-04-14 21:05 Kemp (AW) GOLD RULES 1st

Update:
Another loser! I got matched early at 3.20 while Betfair starting price was 4.0.
I need a little break to do some analysis on that. So no selections for the next few days.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

2010-04-13T12:22:00.001+02:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selection.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

2010-04-12T12:17:00.001+02:00

Hello,

Today’s selection:

2010-04-12 15:50 Wind BRYNFA BOY 4th

Update:
I got matched early at 4.10 (reduced to 3.21 caused by a Non Runner) while Betfair starting price was 7.90.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

2010-04-01T11:40:00.001+02:00

Hello,

Today’s selection:

No selection.

Additional Information:
Tomorrow we will have also no selections, because there is no racing in UK. Next possible selections will be on Saturday.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Analysis of March 2010

2010-04-01T11:14:00.001+02:00

Hello,

same procedure as every month. Here is an overview how I did:

Personal Trades

Football: €14.21
I traded the Correct Score market a few times. There is much potential in this market, but I need to be more selective with the matches I trade on. I was well in profit, but then I got a little too confident and traded too many matches and gave much profit away. Being selective is the key. That is a huge task for me for the next month.

Horse Racing: €35.37
A solid month for the manual lay selections. Was a little disappointing to finish the month with a losing selection, but it was just a question of time to hit a winner.
I am now doing the manual lay selections for more than a year and I am very confident with it.

Motor Sport: -€48.99
I burned my fingers during the first two races of the new Formula 1 season. Trading the fastest lap market seems to be totally different with the rules. There is less activity in the market compared to last season.
I tried a few new ideas, but it did not work out.

Tennis: €12.00
At least I have green figures on the tennis trading front. In March I tried to observe myself during the trades. I think my problem with trading in general is, that I do not have a specified goal. I need some kind of gratification for having a good trading month. Currently I am still on my bank building period, so the only thing I know for the end of the month is that I will have a bigger trading bank for the next month, but that is not a gratification for me. Therefore I am sometimes forcing trades to push the bank to a higher level. At the moment I am far away from a professional approach.

Total P&L: €12.59

Another disappointing month, but at least one with green figures. During the month I had a profit of €120.00 but then I forced too many trades and gave much of the profit away.
Therefore I will set a profit target of €100.00 for April.

Betting Bots

HorstBecker
March produced a profit of 74 points, but still in simulation mode. We placed the bets for the Cheltenham Festival and got a decent profit of about 40 points.

Today the bot will place its selection live on Betfair again. Let’s hope for another solid and profitable month.

LaylaCheval
March produced a total loss of 50 points which is really disappointing. We had some technical problems with the Betfair API again and the so called BET_IN_PROGRESS issue. It is still not solved, so we missed some profitable selections. We also decided to stop the bot on the Cheltenham Festival after the bot laid a high priced winner. Was a really bad decision. Overall the Cheltenham Festival produced a small profit of a few points, but only on simulation mode. There was also a profitable Sunday, but Betfair did not work on that day and we missed another profitable day. If everything would have been fine the bot still would have produced a loss of 5 points in March.

That’s it for now. Will post later possible lay selections.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

2010-03-31T12:00:00.001+02:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selection.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

2010-03-30T11:44:00.001+02:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

Lay Selections

2010-03-29T12:08:00.001+02:00

2010-03-23T11:48:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selection:

2010-03-23 15:30 Sthl CALON CRWBIN 2nd

Update:
The profitable run continues! Betfair starting price was 4.3 and I got matched early at 4.2.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

2010-03-22T11:45:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

Lay Selections

2010-03-21T11:48:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

Chievo v Catania

2010-03-21T08:44:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Currently I am doing some research on value betting on soccer matches. I am not an expert, but this pre match odds looks special:

Does anybody has information why the draw is favourite here?

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

2010-03-20T11:43:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

Our first Cheltenham

2010-03-19T18:57:00.001+01:00

Hello,

the 2010 Cheltenham Festival has been our first Cheltenham Festival ever.
During the last few weeks we saw HorstBecker, our horses backing bot, performing better and better on simulation mode. So we decided to let it placing its selections on Betfair:
This P&L figure also includes a profit of +€5.32 from a lay selection, so the Cheltenham 2010 total P&L is +€82.42.

The bot had 42 selections and 6 winners (using €2 level stakes).

The weather is improving day by day and also the performance of the betting bot is improving, too. This weekend we will do some analysis on all the data we have and the aim is to get the bot ready for placing bets again from April on.

The Cheltenham Festival was really exciting. I watched a lot of races on Betfair live video. Was impressive to hear the crowd during the races. Great atmosphere! I think it is just a question of time, when I will visit the festival.

Cheers, Loocie

2010-03-13T11:42:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

Hitting the Jackpot!…On Paper

2010-03-12T20:08:00.001+01:00

Hello,

currently I am not writing as much about my trading in general, because this month is really quit so far. Just placed bets on my lay selections, traded a few tennis matches and had some bets on soccer.

I am working on a few things at the moment: Next step is to get a Baseball Bot running. Pre season is already running, so the goal is to have the bot available in April when season starts.

Today HorstBecker, the horses backing bot hit a nice winner in the Wincanton 17:30 race. Reinriver won the race with a BSP of 99.30!

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

BET_IN_PROGRESS II

2010-03-05T21:37:00.001+01:00

Hi,

the BET_IN_PROGRESS issue of the Betfair API is still present.
During last week the laying bot missed a few profitable selections.
Even today it missed 5 selections in a single race which is really disappointing:

None of these selections won the race which is more annoying.

To give an update about both bots performance: HorstBecker (still in simulation mode) is currently 3 points up and LaylaCheval is 1 point up. Nothing spectacular so far, but March just begun so plenty of chance for more good races.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

2010-03-05T12:18:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

2010-03-05 14:45 Newb CHEF JUNIOR

Additional Information:
At the moment it is available to lay @5.5 on Betfair. I will only lay the selection, if there is enough money available to lay below 5.0 during the 10 minute live show before the off.

Update:
There was not really an opportunity to get odds below or equal 5.0. Betfair starting price was 12.50. The selection did not win the race, but it also did not match all our criteria. A money saving day.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

2010-03-04T11:35:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

Lay Selections

2010-03-03T11:58:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

2010-03-03 15:10 Folk NORMANDY LANDINGS 4th

Update:
Good start into March. I got matched early at 3.55 while Betfair starting price was 4.30.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

2010-03-02T11:50:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

Lay Selections

2010-03-01T11:54:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

Analysis of February 2010

2010-02-28T19:15:00.001+01:00

Hi,

the second month of the new year is already over. Let’s have a look how I did:

Personal Trades

Tennis: -€47.27

Total Trades 53
Win Trades 21
Loss Trades 29
Scratched 3
Strike Rate 42.00%
Average Win +10.80
Average Loss: –9.45

The disappointing run in tennis continues. I am really annoyed about my tennis trading.
When I have a look at the numbers I must admit that the absolute value for average win and average loss can not produce a satisfied long term profit. Even a 50% strike rate will not produce a decent enough profit. The absolute value of my average loss should be much lower than the absolute value of my average win.
It is hard to say, but it seems that my way of trading tennis does not work.
The problem with my way of tennis trading is that I can not trade every match. More often than not I am just watching the matches without getting involved. I am just waiting for situations where I think the price is wrong, but when the price is wrong it does not mean that the player I backed will win because of the wrong price.
I am in my third year of trading tennis, but I am not yet progressing as desired. Skipping the tennis is an opportunity I am thinking about.

Horse Racing: €33.23
Only four selections for the month, but all of them lost, so I have another pleasant month on the laying front. I hope the bad weather is behind us and I hope I will have more selections during the next few months.
Last year at the end of March I started my horse laying selections so very soon we will have their first “birthday”. I will give a few more details about the selections in another post at the end of March.

Winter Sports: €4.75
I laid Lindsey Vonn @ 1.1 with a fiver on the Ladies Super G : Gold Medal Winner market. The track was difficult with lots of runners struggled, Lindsey too.

Total P&L: -€9.29

February 2010 has been the second negative month in a row. I am not too worried about the amount I lost, but more about the tennis trading. I have not yet decided what I will do with it.

Betting Bots

HorstBecker
It was running the whole month in simulation mode and made a small profit of 7 points.

LaylaCheval
In February it made a total profit of 42 points. We started putting money on the selections at 10th February and made since then a small profit of 7 points.

All in all, nothing to be too euphoric about, but there are signs that the bad run (and weather) might be over.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

2010-02-28T11:26:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

Lay Selections

2010-02-27T11:42:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

Lay Selections

2010-02-26T11:53:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

Lay Selections

2010-02-25T12:10:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selection:

2010-02-25 17:20 Sthl ISITCOZIMCOOL 13th

Update:
What a gift this selection was! I got matched @2.18 while Betfair starting price was 1.80. Lowest inplay odds of the selection was 1.77. Never in doubt.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

2010-02-24T12:13:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

BET_IN_PROGRESS

2010-02-22T22:10:00.001+01:00

Hi,

during the last few days I had some issues with the BET_IN_PROGRESS problem of the Betfair API. Not only my betting bots, but also my personal trading was affected by this issue.
When placing a bet I got sometimes a message “BET_IN_PROGRESS” instead of getting the bet placed. LaylaCheval, the laying betting bot missed some profitable selections.
I know also some traders who had problems to get out of a trade caused by this issue. What a shame!

Today Betfair made a post in the official Betfair Developer Forum about this issue:

“Our technical teams have now identified the root cause of this issue and are now looking to schedule the fix as soon as possible this week. Unfortunately we don’t yet have a release date – we will update you with further information on this as soon as we receive confirmation.“

It is good to know they are working on that issue and that they are communicating about this issue.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

2010-02-22T11:42:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

No selection.

Update:
Tomorrow I will be out of office, so no selections.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

2010-02-21T11:28:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

Lay Selections

2010-02-20T12:12:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

Lay Selections

2010-02-19T11:57:00.001+01:00

Again I marked our previous entry point. The downswing was inevitable, but the downswing is not that huge (ca. 50 points) as before. The graph also looks more steady. At the moment we need to build a bigger bank so we need a stable graph for raising stake size.

2010-02-08T10:13:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

Lay Selections

2010-02-07T11:49:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

Lay Selections

2010-02-06T12:00:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

2010-02-06 13:45 Weth MONOGRAM 2nd

Update:
I got matched early @4.6 while Betfair starting price was 4.77.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie

Lay Selections

2010-02-05T12:40:00.001+01:00

Hello,

Today’s selections:

2010-02-05 16:30 Catt DESOLAIT 6th

Update:
I got matched early at 3.9 while Betfair starting price was 3.88.

NB. All selections are lay selections. Only lay the given selections, if the odds are less or equal 5.0. If the price is greater than 5.0 it is not a bet. I recommend to take the early odds and a maximum liability of 5% of your bank roll on each given selection.

Cheers, Loocie